Thought Picnic: Beyond conscientious objection to fighting needless wars

The summary of my views

I was asked what my position was about the Russia and Ukraine crisis by a mentor of mine, and it allowed me to find the opportunity to transcribe from the notes I took down in anger on Friday night but was unsure of how to convey in a blog.

My answer was “We need to get to a point in human civilisation when young men can refuse to battle for recalcitrant old men who cannot settle their scores with some maturity. I hope Ukraine survives the onslaught.”

Before my viewpoint was taken as uncommitted to apparent indifference, I went on to say, “In fact, my stand is it is an unnecessary war for which Vladimir Putin who has a warped idea of national sovereignty and areas of influence should be taught an unforgettable lesson.” Obviously, it goes without saying that, If Ukraine has no self-determination on what alliances it can have, is it a sovereign state or a satellite of Russia?”

Between sacrifice and slaughter

Having spent 4 years in secondary boarding school, the prospect of a regimented life has never since appealed to me. There is indeed a high calling to serve and the discipline that it entails along with the purpose that defines it, but where do you draw the line between being ready to take the sacrifice and being sent to the slaughter?

In January 1983, in a conversation with my father, he said these words, “There was a time Nigeria was worth dying for, that time has passed.” It so happens my parents were in the UK during the Nigerian Civil War and once it was over, they could not wait to get back to Nigeria to contribute to rebuilding the nation.

To my mind, all war is at its heart totally unreasonable, the inability of leaders and / or older and apparently mature men to have a meeting of minds that they are ready to send the sons of others to battlefields whilst they play war games in genteel surroundings totally oblivious of the depth of suffering on the populace is an atrocity at best.

Keeping our men from bad men

The result of this is we are called upon to honour the war dead as some greater cause of humanity has been achieved and unstoppable progress has been bequeathed to civilisation never to go to war again. It is a lie, for lives are needlessly wasted as cannon fodder with war ending at exhaustion of will, men, or ammunition. We are in terms the most uncivilised in war, like animals you have only found more sophisticated ways to kill each other to a standstill.

I would hope we would reach a point where the men who disagree should sort it amongst themselves and the young men whose blood, they are ready to exsanguinate in the remote battlefields, should say no. This is not conscientious objection but a call to common sense or order, exhaust diplomacy and continue to talk to any agreement that you can reach without having to shed blood.

Beyond conscientious objection

For I desire a time when they, the valiant and strong would say, no, we are not going to fight your dirty, senseless, needless, and unnecessary wars. Our lives matter more than to become sacrificial lambs on the altars of your maniacal devilish egos.

Keep your medals, we do not need the glory, stuff your patriotic rhetoric, your folded national flags, and grand memorials to soldiers unknown. With no men going to war, what would men do given no other option than to talk and resolve things?

Too many men have with the power to send others to their deaths not exhausted the possibilities that the maturation of human civilisation and discourse can offer. Maybe something of the idealist and pacifist in me has taken a long trek from realism, it is however not to be wished away as impossible.

Britannia riles the diplomatic waves

A junior player we are

This need not be a long blog, yet an interesting point to note. The United States, Australia, and the United Kingdom entered an alliance and pact that left a submarine contract arrangement between Australia and France dead in the water. [BBC News: Aukus: France recalls envoys amid security pact row]

France recalled their ambassadors to the United States and France but did not consider it necessary to recall their ambassador to the Court of St James’s. The reason given with obvious disdain as good as a typical English putdown, “France considers the UK a junior player in the new pact, seeking a new world role post-Brexit, and riding along on Uncle Sam's coat-tails.”

Making waves no longer

It is normally attributed to Napoléon Bonaparte that he considered England a nation of shopkeepers, that same nation that once was an empire on which the sun never set, Great Britain has been on a steady decline for over a century and is now after Brexit being dismissed as a junior player by our neighbours across the channel, that respectful consideration is a waste of diplomatic nous, the contempt has been delivered with inaction.

The Britannia that once did rule the waves no more makes any waves to bother anyone on the international stage. How indeed are the mighty failed and fallen by those who led that Brexit march, we are treading the path of reduction with gusto, bluster, bombast, and insignificance. Alas!

Thought Picnic: How hubris leaves essential cornerstones off buildings

Stones and bones

“The stone the builders rejected has become the cornerstone.” Psalms 118:22 (New International Version)

“The cornerstone (or foundation stone or setting stone) is the first stone set in the construction of a masonry foundation, important since all other stones will be set in reference to this stone, thus determining the position of the entire structure.” [Wikipedia]

The biblical reference to the cornerstone though indicating lifeless stones pertains to people, the stones are set in place by builders, yet, in the art of masonry, there has to be a stone in the construction of the building that becomes the reference point of the other stones, without which the building risks looking like a work of amateurs and consequently it might collapse upon the occupants who eventually occupy it.

Hubris guides rejection

The cornerstone as a metaphor in many contexts in relation to people could in organisations refer to who runs the organisation or who manages projects, in institutions, it might be the experts whose knowledge is necessary for processes or operations to work.

There are cornerstones everywhere in different guises, the people who teach, the people who mentor, those who provide guidance, those who must be consulted on ideas, issues, events, circumstances, plans or status before major decisions are made.

Yet, as history shows from even the early biblical times, there are linchpin people who have not been recognised for who they are when decisions or actions are taken by those who have position, power, authority or influence and during implementation it dawns on those who were somewhat wise in their own conceits that the consultation and arbitration should have included the people they had heretofore ignored.

Rejection is myriad

Ignoring such people is exemplified in overconfidence, hubris, narcissism, the abuse of power, the denigration of personalities, the belittlement of persons and their abilities, patronising attitudes to contemn expertise, the removal of protection of rights and privileges, discourtesy, rudeness, racism, discrimination, patriarchy, violence, prohibitions, and so on.

Many of these, readers would recognise at work, at play and at home. The question then becomes how the cornerstone gets recognised at the get-go without experiencing an initial or repeated rejection by those who matter.

It is a challenge I have met in a recent family situation that is calling on all inflexions and projections of language, semantics and diplomacy. It is never an easy task, but one that must be tackled.

Notice your cornerstones

For instance, in a professional situation, where essential input to facilitate change is missing, the project would fail. Unilateralism in an environment that depends on relationships, teamworking and systems presages disaster. That concept is more universal than we dare to acknowledge.

Buildings would crumble when builders reject stones that are the inherent cornerstones, not using the requisite cornerstone entertains the risk of an unstable building. You wonder what informs the decision to reject that important stone. You can extrapolate this to any situation, ignored pertinent data and your research is flawed, anything utilising the conclusions in that research would put lives, property and capital at great risk, some of which would be unquantifiable.

By extension, it also relates to the power of persuasion when the argument, idea, concept or intention is not persuasive. Without a strong basis in fact and evidence, the whole premise of any enterprise can be taken apart with sound reasoning and good questions for which answers are unconvincing. In the UK, Brexit is a good example of the Prime Minister miserably failing to persuade the majority of her grand plan.

Invariably, courtesy must be accorded to people who are needed to assume responsibility in certain matters to engage and contribute for them to feel involved and take ownership with a higher call of duty to ensure what they are called to do succeeds, else the activity harbours every indication towards failure.

Nigeria: The aftermath of "She Belongs In My Kitchen"

Politics takes in the family

Politics is a very engaging business for both the individual and their immediate family. It is almost impossible to divorce the immediate family from the effects and consequences of an individual entering politics.

The politician will almost definitely have a public life, it is usually unlikely except in a scandal for anyone to see into the home life and how the dynamic in that setting dictates, controls or affects how a politician operates.

However, we have gotten used to seeing the politician’s spouse espouse causes dear to their hearts on the one hand and sometimes to soften the hard politician’s stance to the wider world.

In many places, politicians do not seek public office without the consent and support of spouse and family, it is hopefully in recognition of the reality that seeking office does cause some sort of upheaval in their close-knit setup. Some have on the advice of their families withdrawn from politics to cater to their immediate family and renew bonds.

A politician’s wife with views

In Nigeria, we have had our share of the politician’s spouse, some uppity, some intrusive, some menacing and an atrocious assault on our democratic values, arrogating to themselves power to the status of their spouses and abusing their position peddling influence with reckless abandon, yet, this does not apply to all spouses, many who go by the moniker of ‘first lady’, to decline to licence for titles less commendable.

It is in view of this that one can understand when Aisha Buhari the spouse of the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria gave an interview to the BBC. She expressed concern about how the political maelstrom around her husband manned by people they neither knew nor could trust was making her husband’s political agenda ineffective.

To which end, she suggested that if things continued in this manner, she will not support if her husband chooses to contest, a re-election quest. [Aisha Buhari – BBC]

On a global stage

In the Nigerian society, these are strong views, yet, in my first comment about this, I suggested it appeared pillow talk was no more effective to bringing an obdurate man to understand concerns the family had, that the media might well be acquainted with that frustration.

Yesterday, as the news media took its soundbites from Aisha Buhari’s forcefully independent opinions Muhammadu Buhari was on a state visit to Germany. He could not have been oblivious of his spouse’s interview and I would have expected that his media team and advisers would have intimated that the world press in Germany might well broach the subject.

If Muhammadu Buhari were visiting Germany for a purpose, it would have been incumbent on them not to let any other issue overshadow that purpose and be on the trajectory to a successful state visit with the world press concentrating on that. They fell at the first hurdle.

The joke in the other room

With Muhammadu Buhari standing beside the foremost female politician in the world, Angela Merkel, he was asked about his wife’s views in that BBC interview. Given a global stage, President Buhari mustered all the patriarchy and chauvinism he could at the expense of wit, tact, diplomacy or even common-sense and let rip an anachronistic embarrassment of verbiage.

“I don't know which party my wife belongs to, but she belongs to my kitchen and my living room and the other room.” He said, amongst other things about his political struggles, his losses, his victory and his opponents. Angela Merkel, if we could have read her mind might have been thinking in German, “Warum habe ich stimme diesen Chauvinistenschwein zu treffen?” [Muhammadu Buhari – BBC]

A very sad analysis

For me, there are many angles from which to view Muhammadu Buhari’s comments, but I see a wider consequence of expressing such views on a global stage and it led me to ask a few questions on Twitter, because I already knew that the main takeaway from this Nigeria-Germany summit would be, “She belongs to my kitchen.”

When a leader of a nation says a spouse of 27 years belongs in the kitchen, what do you expect the girls of that generation to aspire to?

— Akin Akíntáyọ̀ (@forakin) October 14, 2016

Let's get it straight, if a spouse of 27 years cannot express independent views without being sent back to the kitchen, what gives?

— Akin Akíntáyọ̀ (@forakin) October 14, 2016

What does President Buhari have an entourage of advisers for if none of the lot anticipated he would be asked about his wife's views?

— Akin Akíntáyọ̀ (@forakin) October 14, 2016

I know there are men who would excuse the inexcusable belittlement of Aisha Buhari on the world stage, I will not.

— Akin Akíntáyọ̀ (@forakin) October 14, 2016

Just imagine if Bill Clinton suggested Hillary Clinton belonged in the kitchen, just because she had the audacity to have an opinion.

— Akin Akíntáyọ̀ (@forakin) October 14, 2016

The undercurrent of "she belongs to my kitchen" is probably a religiously heartfelt desire to have a woman in purdah in 2016 Nigeria.

— Akin Akíntáyọ̀ (@forakin) October 14, 2016

The widest implication and consequence of Muhammadu Buhari’s comment can only be encapsulated in the next tweet.

I hate to think of the consequences of Buhari's 'she belongs in my kitchen' view on an unfortunate girl-child needing to go to school.

— Akin Akíntáyọ̀ (@forakin) October 14, 2016

The deeper ramifications

Nigeria has many girl-child disadvantages and challenges, we still have almost 200 Chibok Girls abducted by Boko Haram in captivity for over 2 years, girls are getting abducted, religiously converted and pressed into matrimony by paedophiles and there is no criminality imputed. [Premium Times]

The problem here is this septuagenarian in a changing world failed to lead and chose to follow patrimony and by his pronouncement that some have dismissed as a jocular retort, some men will decide there is no need to invest in their girls if the leader of the 7^th most populous nation in the world believes the woman belongs in the kitchen, the living room, and the other room.

The attempt at a joke here was the use of ‘the other room’ instead of ‘bedroom’, but the ramifications are deeper than that and that is why there is no excuse that can excuse what Muhammadu Buhari said in Germany.

Our culture expects the elderly to be smart, wise, wily and tactful, let us not let fealty to the man obscure the grave errors of the man.

Let’s do better

Now, I am not advocating that there should be no gender roles in the home, but a home life is only part of the total makeup of both the man and the woman. A lot is lost in the wealth of nations when only the patriarchy can decide who has opinions and whether they can be expressed so independently in public.

We must emancipate ourselves beyond this and give equal opportunity to a fulfilled life of achievement to everyone regardless of status, gender, beliefs, culture, traditions and unfortunate anachronistic views expressed by visionless leaders.

Nigeria: So, the US Envoy spoke Pidgin English? Big Deal!

Ambassador 101

Maybe we should sometimes wonder about what is expected of ambassadors. They are accredited representatives of their country to another country where normally they would live and interact with officials and people of that country.

Obviously, they should be expert diplomats in such a way that they should attempt to magnify the amity between countries whilst diminishing tensions between them, promoting understanding and friendships too.

There are many other roles of the ambassador, in explaining the policy of their countries clearly, being the chief executive of the consulate and its services for their fellow citizens abroad and host citizens who need to gain knowledge in many ways about the country the ambassador is from.

Soft skills of diplomacy - language

The ability to communicate is key, this is in the sophisticated use of language as well as in many cases they would be multilingual or dare I say polyglots. To expect them to speak the language of the court is probably not too much, if they speak the lingua franca, that is a matter of appreciated skill.

Enter, Ambassador James F. Entwistle, the United States Ambassador to Nigeria who has in his diplomatic career represented his country in Malaysia, Central African Republic, Thailand, Cambodia, Kenya, Cambodia, Cameroon, Niger, Sri Lanka, the Maldives, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and now Nigeria.

Pidgin English everywhere

Impressive and interesting, many of these places are former British colonies where English would have been spoken or a corruption of English known as Pidgin English of which there are many and the Nigerian Pidgin English now considered English-based creole language belongs to the broader group of West African Pidgin English languages.

If the producers at WaZoBia FM in Lagos had done very basic research on their guest, the Ambassador, they should have not been too surprised that given his wealth of experience in the subcontinent, he would have been quite able to connect a lot better than they expected.

In answering questions related to Nigerian democracy and US relations with Nigeria, he spoke quite fluently in Nigerian Pidgin English to which what he had to say was deafened by uncontrolled applause as the narrative that followed deviated from everything else he had to say. [PM News]

Noise obscures poise

Besides the commentary on the BBC, the management of WaZoBia FM should deign to conduct an orderly house with disciplined staff who can exercise a modicum of self-control and professionalism when pleasantly surprised. [BBC Audio]

The Ambassador indeed should be commended for effort and ability whilst at the same time we should not at the slightest titillation become a garrulous rabble in a circus act.

Much as we would have loved to listen to the recording of that interview, the sensational has gotten in the way of the substance of the meeting and that is rather unfortunate.

So, the United States Ambassador to Nigeria spoke Pidgin English? Big Deal! What did he say?

Opinion: Please don't call the President a liar

I cry for our journalism

Over the last few weeks, I have concentrated on managing the blogs posted to commemorate my Decade of Blogging. It does not mean there was nothing else to write about.

Blog - To Celebrate My Decade of Blogging

Now, I touch on a topic that I have covered in various ways pertaining to journalism in Nigeria, from poor copy editing, through faulty terminologies to plagiarism.

A newspaper reported yesterday that the President ‘lied’ when referencing how his off-the-cuff Christmas speech was related to the public.

The responsibility of the press

The substance of the issue is beside the point, but this goes down to one simple scenario, if the press is to inform, engage, investigate, collaborate and serve as a guardian of democracy giving voice to the people, it has to get more sophisticated with the responsibility it has to disseminate the news.

The President in terms is somewhat a divisive figure who excites passionate sycophancy to intemperate antagonism, a welcome dartboard with a big bull’s-eye for criticism that his coterie of advisors and acolytes have perfected the art of being under siege.

He is not perfect, but that does not make him a devil, and much as many may not like him and individually some might excoriate and ridicule him, the press should hold themselves to a higher standard of engagement.

In many cases, the only way we would ever get to hear the President’s views on any issue would be through newspapers that have found a way to building a reputation for cutting-edge reportage and the use of language with the finesse of nuance and the ability to convey truth and fact as objectivity as possible.

Tact and leeway in reportage

More pertinent, they should give authorities when presented with certain facts that leeway to reconsider or restate their views as each engagement sheds more light of the backstory of any issue being debated on or reported on.

To call the President a liar is seriously antagonistic and aggressively reckless, even if the accuser is in the right. It gives the President no options apart from a descent to opprobrium, disgrace and dishonour. As the person of the President is impugned the office of the President is brought into disrepute and then what respect can we accord our leadership if they are under the cosh of dishonourable conduct.

At worst, the press should have suggested the President misstated the facts or might have been wrongly briefly, in which case, the office of the President might have had the option with review what the President said and retract the reported ‘lie’ with necessarily losing face.

An unfortunate step

To confront the President with the accusation that he lied is as good as asking for his scalp, the press might have won the battle for that setting but would have lost the bigger war, the war to make the press have the necessary in-roads into the system to ensure the public are adequately informed.

However, if the press does think that resorting to ambush tactics and mob justice of the pen with a public journalistic lynching is the best approach to things, much more is expected of juvenile delinquents and this unfortunate descent into disagreeable communication would simply polarise rather than serve the greater interests of Nigeria.

Indeed, certain of the press need to act tough and appear impermeable to obsequiousness to the powerful, and separate themselves from the bought up personnel who are instruments of patronage and the wielding of influence for propaganda ends.

It does not excuse the need to tact, for finesse, for nuance, for the understated and the effective use of language in analogy or metaphor to convey serious matters without a thuggish disposition.

Retract for him to restate

I would suggest that the press retract their accusation that the President lied and restate their case with a bit of deference and allowance, it would give the President some leeway either to reinforce or restate, there evidence provided would then be weighed to determine with the truth is.

I think the word I am looking for is diplomacy and the press can use a bit of diplomatic language and still get the job done without looking like a bull set lose in a china shop. That I have to write this blog is unfortunate, but very necessary.

Nigeria: The Yellow Fever Spat with South Africa

Nigerians humiliated

It was just about 27 months ago when two sitting senators and an ex-envoy to South Africa were roughed up or somewhat humiliated by the South African immigration authorities.

I wrote then [1] that I would have very much wanted to protest the effrontery and disrespect to Nigeria, the country of my heritage by reason of my parents but after much thought I felt there was an underlying problem with Nigeria’s image that presaged that event and with high-level politicians suffering such humiliation their experience will inform the need to change elements of our national psyche to earn respect from countries like South Africa.

Happened again after warnings

That must have been a pipe-dream because South Africa having persistently complained [2] to the Nigerian government about the use of fake yellow fever vaccination cards by Nigerians precipitated a diplomatic row by turning back 125 Nigerians at their borders for apparently possessing fake yellow fever vaccination cards.

Politicians and Nigerians on social media forums rose up with righteous indignation, taking offence at the insensitivity and domineering influence of South Africa which they considered a slight on the supposed “Giant of Africa” – a very debatable concept but we are allowed our delusions and opinions.

In time, South Africans were getting deported, immigration checks enforced more stringently, envoys were summoned, politicians fulminating and in the process even Nigerians with legitimate cause [3] and valid documents began to bear the brunt of this fallout.

The rule is clear

The entry requirements to South Africa include this particular stipulation culled from the CDC [4]:

Effective October 1, 2011, proof of yellow fever vaccination is required for all travelers ≥ 1 year of age if traveling from or transiting through a country with risk of YFV transmission regardless of the amount of time spent at the airport. This requirement also applies to the following countries with low potential for exposure to YFV: São Tomé and Principe, Somalia, Tanzania, Zambia, and Eritrea (as of January 1, 2012).

Travelers not meeting this requirement can be refused entry to South Africa or be quarantined for up to 6 days. Unvaccinated travelers with a valid medical waiver will be allowed entry.

(Updated February 7, 2012)

Probably quite necessary for action

On this occasion, the immigration authorities chose to be heavy-handed rather than sympathetic, so rather than putting the Nigerians in quarantine for 6 days, they were deported. One of the passengers on that flight was a sitting senator and Nigeria would have preferred that this situation were handled to avoid embarrassment but a greater principle was at stake – forcing Nigeria to act and having such a high-level politician involved was just the opportunity.

South Africa has since apologised [5] “following this regrettable incident which the South African government believes could have been handled better.”

An apology does not necessarily mean an admission of guilt because that would include restitution and compensation which has not been evident in the statements, it is a state of detente with the hope that a very important point has been made to Nigeria to put their house in order.

The issues remain

Much as one is encouraged with the idea of more bilateral cooperation between Nigeria and South Africa some issues still need to be attended to and addressed in Nigeria.

The corrupt enterprise of selling Yellow Fever Vaccination cards at the airports must stop and we need to establish reputable travel centres that deal with travel health requirements to countries that demand certain steps be taken, ensuring travellers are observant of those requirements and are not circumventing due process.

The idea that travellers to South Africa without proof of yellow fever vaccination will be vaccinated at the point of entry into South Africa should be terrifying for all sorts of reasons one should leave to the imagination. More importantly, it is better to be vaccinated with a good knowledge of your medical condition than be turnstiled and syringed through the system just to end up the worse for it.

Do NOT use Yellow Fever Vaccine [6] if:

• You are allergic to any ingredient in Yellow Fever Vaccine or latex rubber
• You are allergic to eggs, egg products, or chicken protein
• You have a weakened immune system due to HIV or cancer or are receiving radiation treatment or chemotherapy (e.g., alkylating drugs, corticosteroids)

Read more at http://www.drugs.com/cdi/yellow-fever-vaccine.html#p7Cvd2lhYBC4uACR.99

Candidate Patient Zero

Besides, the Yellow Fever Vaccine only offers full protection 10 days after taking the vaccine, so taking the vaccine at the airport and entering South Africa without having developed the antibodies most likely sets the person up as first vulnerable to infection and then a vector for the disease either in South Africa or when they return home where it might already have been eradicated – the person then takes on the ignominious title of Patient Zero – the concept and proposed solution is just wrong.

Like I opined in 2008, the problem is initially and primarily in Nigeria where we have to deal with sharp and corrupt practices with regards to preparing for international travel but once again like was the case with James Ibori with the United Kingdom convicting our criminals, it has taken the action of an external party to force an issue we should have managed better at home – the hope is the greater lesson is learnt by the so offended Nigeria and Nigerians once we have been sated with the words of the apology.

There is work to be done; Nigeria put your house in order.

Sources

[1] Nigeria: Image allows immigration humiliation | Akinblog.nl

[2] We won’t apologise to Nigeria, says S-Africa | Vanguard Nigeria

[3] SA deports Nigerian journalist | Daily Times Nigeria

[4] Health Information for Travelers to South Africa - Travelers' Health - CDC

[5] Department of International Relations and Cooperation of the Republic of South Africa - South Africa and Nigeria commit to strengthen bilateral relations

[6] Yellow Fever Vaccine Facts and Comparisons at Drugs.com

Nigeria: Naijaleaks and the importance of Nigeria

Searching the leaks

With the headlines items gone and the choice bits taken, let us now pick up the remnants of the Nigerian WikiLeaks cables which are now termed NaijaLeaks and hear the background chatter behind the deafening noise.

With the WikiLeaks search tool which came to me through some indirect reference in my Twitter feed it was only right to search for what else contained Nigeria but was not of breaking news media pervasiveness but still a matter of conversation.

First of all you can find the WikiLeaks search facility at Leak Search and I thank @nubiancheetah for reTweeting @rafiq with the indirect link.

Nigeria is the most important in Africa

Looking at what Nigeria represents, US Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Johnnie Carson was in Nigeria with a message and on a fact-finding mission which included meeting with International Oil Companies (IOCs).

In attendance were the now legendary Ann Pickard of Shell, representatives from Chevron, Exxon Mobil, Schlumberger, Hercules, the American Business council and consulate staff, from what I can see of the names highlighted in the cable, there were at least two Nigerians in that meeting too.

He had this to say, Nigeria is the most important country in Africa for the United States due to: the size of its population; presence of hydro-carbons; peace keeping role in ECOWAS, its seat on the United Nations Security Council; along with the strength and size of its financial markets. Nigeria has enormous potential and is the seventh largest Muslim country in the world with an Islamic population that will eclipse Egypt by 2015. Having no United States presence in Northern Nigeria is akin to having no presence in Egypt and is why the United States is considering opening a Consulate in Kano.

Despite what we know of Nigeria, these seem to be rather profound statements about Nigeria which places it in prominence above both Egypt and South Africa in terms of importance to the United States in Africa.

The failings and the impasse in leadership notwithstanding, one can say those terms of reference have also been mentioned in order of importance, population, oil, regional clout, UN presence, markets and religion, especially the Islamic influence.

The failure of our democratic systems

What is alarming is the suggestion that only 10% of Nigerians saw a ballot ticket in 2007, that is damning as it is worrisome and I hope that the elections in 2011 do aim to have a healthy majority exercise their right to vote and have their votes counted declaring the wishes of the people.

The managers of the election should aim for 70% or better and not just a slight improvement on the performance of 2007, but with the theft of registration machines from the international airport last week, one worries about how much success can be expected.

The assertion that Lagos is better than Cape Town and the most important in the Nigerian federal system is interesting, it is the commercial capital of Nigeria with the administrative capital in Abuja and though it is less salubrious compared to Cape Town, it is where things are happening and changing.

Three state governors in the south had a favourable mention for their work, development and governance and they were those of Akwa Ibom - Godswill Akpabio, Rivers - Chibulke Amaechi and Edo - Adams Oshiomhole, it is interesting that despite the seeming infrastructural improvements in Lagos State the governor does not get a mention.

Charting the course to the right future

Fundamentally, the view of the IOCs is that the Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB) is more about taking control and extracting more value for Nigeria’s resources than providing solutions in terms of security, safety and development of the resources.

It appears the PIB is in three versions with no idea of what would eventually be adopted and more damning is the idea that Nigeria can manage its resources with spreadsheets and this apparently inadequate bill. – See cable for more views on the PIB.

Looking to the future the concern is the Nigeria has the possibility of developing into a Pakistan, the parallels are developing are of serious concern and though we are not a nuclear power, oil and religion are just as explosive and capable of creating an ungovernable entity.

To reach the standard of living of Indonesia by 2020, Nigeria needs to grow at 14% a year but that is predicated on credible democratic process, the development of independent and viable institutions that adhere to the rule of law and in my view an sustainable legislature which at the moment consumes 25% of the federal overhead. With Nigeria growing at only 5% and not taking account of the growth of Indonesia, there is much capacity and potential for improvement but the opportunities are yet to be tackled with the necessary fervour.

China for China makes US rethink Nigeria

As for other foreign influences in Nigeria, this is the view they have of China and the purveyors of Chinese investment in Africa better take note of the situation - The United States does not consider China a military, security or intelligence threat. China is a very aggressive and pernicious economic competitor with no morals. China is not in Africa for altruistic reasons. China is in Africa for China primarily. A secondary reason for China’s presence is to secure votes in the United Nations from African countries.

However, China’s influence is making the United States rethink its strategy in Africa and it is working all ends to ensure that it remains significant in the Nigeria polity by locating a presence in all parts of Nigeria, in the words of the Assistant Secretary - No presence means no access, which leads to no influence. Without influence you have nothing.

Whilst Secretary Carson did not get to sign off this cable, the conclusions are clear, Nigeria in Africa, its hydro-carbons, its potential and the religious element needs that the United States be fully engaged in Nigeria by all means possible and it comes above South Africa, Egypt, Indonesia and Pakistan in terms of if its important to the interests of the United States.

Source

Viewing cable 10LAGOS75, Assistant Secretary Carson meets oil companies in Lagos

The cable – with interesting portions highlighted.

Tuesday, 23 February 2010, 08:20

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 LAGOS 000075

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF/FO, AF/W, AF/RSA, AND INR/AA

AMEMBASSY YAOUNDE PASS TO AMEMBASSY MALABO

EO 12958 DECL: 2020/02/23

TAGS EPET, ENRG, ECON, PGOV, PREL, NI

SUBJECT: ASSISTANT SECRETARY CARSON MEETS OIL COMPANIES IN LAGOS

CLASSIFIED BY: Donna M. Blair, CG, State, ConGen Lagos; REASON: 1.4(B), (D)

SUMMARY

¶1. (C) Assistant Secretary (A/S) Carson met with members of the International Oil Companies (IOCs) on February 7. The A/S stressed the fact that Nigeria is the most important country in Africa for the United States. The IOC members noted that the A/S spoke mainly of issues in Northern Nigeria and did not dwell on Southern issues.

The Petroleum Industry Bill is discouraging future investment mostly in deep-water fields where most of the remaining oil in Nigeria lies. If Nigeria raised the price of gas to two-thirds of the world price, the IOC’s would be at each others throats trying to cut the price by a penny or two. Nigeria has the possibility of becoming the next Pakistan within 25 years. A/S Carson allayed the IOCs concerns of the United States’ relationship with China. END SUMMARY.

¶2. (C) Assistant Secretary Carson met with members of the international oil community in Lagos on February 7. In attendance were the following: Shell Senior Vice President’s Ann Pickard and Ian Craig; Shell Vice President Peter Robinson; Chevron Managing Director Andrew Fawthrop; Chevron Public Affairs Manager Femi Odumabo; Exxon Mobil Managing Director Mark Ward; Hercules Manager Coleman McDonough; Schlumberger Manager Supply Chain Service Demi Adenusi; American Business Council (ABC) President Dick Kramer; Special Assistant to the Assistant Secretary; Economic Officer; Maritime Affairs Officer; Marine AttachC) and, Consul General Lagos.

NIGERIA: MOST IMPORTANT COUNTRY IN AFRICA

¶3. (C) Fawthrop asked the A/S whether he was in Nigeria to deliver a message or was it more of a fact-finding trip? A/S Carson stated that he was in Nigeria for both reasons in that he wanted to listen and engage with Nigeria. Nigeria is the most important country in Africa for the United States due to: the size of its population; presence of hydro-carbons; peace keeping role in ECOWAS, especially in Sierra Leone and Liberia; its seat on the United Nations Security Council; along with the strength and size of its financial markets the A/S continued.

Nigeria has enormous potential and is the seventh largest Muslim country in the world with an Islamic population that will eclipse Egypt by 2015 according to A/S Carson. Having no United States presence in Northern Nigeria is akin to having no presence in Egypt and is why the United States is considering opening a Consulate in Kano.

¶4. (C) The United States is concerned about the power vacuum in Nigeria and the state of health of President Yar A’dua, per A/S Carson. The president is “very, very, very, very ill” and Nigerians are under illusions regarding the state of their president. “Nigeria cannot afford to implode or run aground.”

30 years of military government was not good. The United States expects a stable, legal, democratic, constitutionally-based government with no “military involvement, full stop” A/S Carson stated. It is important for the GON to do a better job this time around in regards to elections. Only ten percent of Nigerians saw a ballot ticket in the 2007 elections. If Nigeria brings credibility to its democratic processes, its economic processes will improve.

UNITED STATES PRESENCE IN SOUTHERN NIGERIA NEEDS ATTENTION

¶5. (C) Some places are more important than others within the Federal system of Nigeria and Lagos is one of the more important places, according to A/S Carson. Consulate General Lagos is bigger and more important than Embassies Benin and Togo together. Lagos is significantly more important than Cape Town even though the latter is 100 times better in terms of livability. The United States must be in Lagos in a significant way, A/S Carson declared.

¶6. (C) The statements of the A/S sounded wonderful from a Hausa viewpoint, but nothing was mentioned about Southern and Eastern Nigeria, Fawthrop pointed out. The A/S agreed that Fawthrop was correct. The United States is underrepresented diplomatically, economically, commercially, militarily and from a security standpoint.

When the A/S served in Nigeria from 1969-1971, the United States had the Embassy in Lagos with Consulates in Ibadan, Kaduna, and briefly in Port Harcourt, before the Civil war, and also a USIS post in Kano. With the Nigerian population at 50 million the United States was better and more broadly represented in a Nigeria that produced almost no oil.

With an Embassy in Abuja and a Consulate in Lagos, the United States has experienced a “huge loss” in Nigeria today, per A/S Carson. The United States must get back into Enugu and Port Harcourt. “No presence means no access, which leads to no influence. Without influence you have nothing.”

¶7. (C) Akwa Ibom governor Godswill Akpabio was singled out as an impressive governor by Mark Ward. Akpabio has built up infrastructure and industrial development. He is “one to watch” per Ward. Other Southern governors that were highlighted included were Rivers State governor Chibulke Amaechi and Edo State governor Oshiomhole. Fawthrop suggested that USAID has a lot to offer in the South in that if USAID makes a mistake it is OK.

If a private company engages in a similar project and makes a mistake you have a FCPA investigation. The Consul General (CG) added that it might be possible to team up with security assets of the IOCs to arrange diplomatic trips to the Niger Delta. This arrangement would not happen “100 percent of the time,” but more often than not, per the CG.

STATUS OF THE PETROLEUM INDUSTRY BILL

¶8. (C) The PIB is more about taking control and not a real solution, per Mark Ward. XXXXXXXXXXXX There are currently three versions between the Senate, House, and Interagency committee and it is unclear when and what will materialize, according to Ward. Fawthrop added that the PIB amounts to resource nationalization and stated that it costs more than 40 percent to develop the oil as opposed to leaving it in the ground. The current fiscals of the PIB estimate that is costs 25 percent to develop the oil, thereby creating a disincentive.

If the oil stays in the ground then billions of development money will go away and the resulting slowdown will be a massive problem. The IOCs received a lecture from a team made up of various GON agencies (the interagency team) in Abuja In a recent meeting in an example of the current level of communication per Fawthrop. The whole group then went to the office of the Vice President where the interagency team stated that there was very good communication between them and the IOCs.

¶9. (C) The large fields, elephants, have all been developed in Nigeria per Fawthrop. What remains are fields one-quarter to one-third the size. The same costs are involved in producing the oil but the revenue will be less because there is less oil.

The IOCs need more incentive, not less, in order to develop these fields profitably. What the PIB accomplishes is a disincentive. The downstream sector is very simple in Nigeria in that the refined gas is moved from one tanker to another, to a smaller tanker and then sold. The refining sector, exploration and production sectors are very complex. It is unrealistic for the PIB to try to change all of these areas in one tome of legislation, asserted Fawthrop.

¶10. (C) The gas side of the PIB tries to legislate the delivery of gas rather than incentivize it. “The donkey is tired and beaten. It will not go no matter what you tell it” stated Fawthrop. If the gas price went to two thirds of the world price the IOCs would “cut each others throat” to cut the price by one or two cents.

The rest of the IOC members nodded in agreement to this statement by Fawthrop. European gas competition has gas developed on a cost plus basis adding about eight percent to the cost. The model should be based on rate of return and not forced upon operators by legislative decree.

¶11. (C) Whenever gas doubles the cost of electricity goes up by one quarter. Stable electricity will allow industry to flourish in Nigeria but this will not happen 15 months before the elections. Amateur technocrats run the oil and gas sector according to Shell’s Peter Robinson.

They believe that they can control the industry via spreadsheets and pushing through the PIB. There are many emotional issues in the PIB with Nigerian politicians believing that they make no money on deep-water projects. Potential banker and businessmen partners do not understand the industry. The GON has made USD 2.5 billion with no investment in the past two years according to Robinson.

¶12. (C) A large problem will be the ten percent of equity that is to go to the communities argued Fawthrop. Equity going into the communities will make them explode. The recipients of the monies will be highly disappointed when they see the amount they will receive, a much larger sum will be expected. Kramer referred to the community equity as the “lawyer relief act” and wondered how one defines an actual community.

¶13. (C) Peter Robinson stated after the meeting that Pedro Van Meurs, the oil consultant hired by the GON to help negotiate with the IOCs, is considering leaving. Van Meurs has been trying to show the GON officials that their fiscal math does not work with the PIB.

Van Meurs does not agree with the IOC position completely but sees areas for improvement. One example given to Lagos Econoff by Exxon Mobil Project Manager Anh Tran concerned the levels of cost involved with deep-water projects. Exxon, and other IOCs, maintain that their capital costs are at least 40 percent of deep-water projects while the GON allows for 25 percent capital costs under the PIB. Van Meurs agreed that 25 percent was not adequate.

WHERE DOES NIGERIA GO FROM HERE?

¶14. (C) It is possible that Nigeria could be a future Pakistan according to A/S Carson. In 25 years, there could be impoverished masses, a wealthy elite and radicalism in the North. The question is whether the oil wells will be dry as well and could Nigeria be on “sustainable and irreversible glide path to a new economic base” per the A/S.

When you look at the 2020/20 plan by the GON you see that Nigeria needs to grow by 14 percent a year to be at the current level of Indonesia Fawthrop asserted. That is using today’s figures, which does not take into account Indonesia’s growth Kramer added. Nigeria is growing at five percent now and would need 20 percent growth per annum in energy and USD 22 billion investment in power plants Fawthrop stated.

What would happen if Nigeria fell just short of their goals, would there be an alternative plan in place Fawthrop wondered? He cited the example of the 2009 6,000 Megawatt goal. It was apparent early on that the goal was not feasible and an alternative plan could have been devised. The GON insisted that they would reach their goal and did not develop alternatives. The same would hold true for 2020/20 Fawthrop assumed.

¶15. (C) The A/S offered that a forum could be organized in Nigeria with World Bank President Robert Zoellick speaking to a wide audience. Under Secretary for Economic, Energy, and Agricultural Affairs Bob Hormats would be invited as well to lend his knowledge of Africa. The forum would be shaped with the broader picture in mind, not just oil. This would not be sponsored by the IOCs. Members of the business community and individuals that were committed to making oil meaningful to Nigeria’s future would be asked to participate.

Talk would center on “over the horizon” issues, where Nigeria has gone right and where it has gone wrong. Two or three fora would be defined with key people to spark debate. Religious tensions, North-South issues, the lack of capacity in the GON, narco-trafficking, the growing irrelevance of Nigeria, as Princeton Lyman has suggested, could be potential subjects. Nigeria is at a critical financial and political threshold and the entire nation could possibly tip backwards permanently, per A/S Carson.

CHINESE - AMERICAN RELATIONS IN AFRICA

¶16. (C) What is the status of America’s influence in Africa and how does it compare to China, Fawthrop queried? The influence of the United States has increased in Africa, the A/S countered. The United States’ reputation is stable and its popularity is the highest in Africa compared to anywhere else in the world. Obama has helped to increase that influence. “We must manage the expectations of the Obama administration” offered the A/S.

The United States does not consider China a military, security or intelligence threat. China is a very aggressive and pernicious economic competitor with no morals. China is not in Africa for altruistic reasons. China is in Africa for China primarily. A secondary reason for China’s presence is to secure votes in the United Nations from African countries. A third reason is to prove that Taiwan is not an issue.

There are trip wires for the United States when it comes to China. Is China developing a blue water navy? Have they signed military base agreements? Are they training armies? Have they developed intelligence operations? Once these areas start developing then the United States will start worrying. The United States will continue to push democracy and capitalism while Chinese authoritarian capitalism is politically challenging. The Chinese are dealing with the Mugabe’s and Bashir’s of the world, which is a contrarian political model, A/S Carson stated.

COMMENT

¶17. (C) A/S Carson effectively provided the IOCs with a rationale for the United States’ interest in Nigeria and its commitment to the country. This commitment seems more substantial than the IOCs given the prospect of the PIB and the current state of play in Nigeria.

Providing the IOCs with statements of support through continuing if not increasing the USG presence in Nigeria will be important in determining the increasing, decreasing or non-existent role of the IOCs in the future in Nigeria. As the A/S stated, if we can have a substantial presence in Pakistan, why not Nigeria?

END COMMENT.

¶18. (U) A/S Carson did not have an opportunity to clear this cable before departing post. BLAIR

Thought Picnic: WikiLeaks is the new porn

The landscape has changed

This is my first blog on the WikiLeaks and I doubt it would be the last. I am of the opinion that the backlash against the organ and the public face of the organ hardly begins to address the main issues that WikiLeaks present us.

For a while now, governments institutions, politicians and the elite who used to have exclusive access to information and data for use in our name for their own purposes and motives have begun to realise that they have been made powerless if the knowledge that separates them from us the people becomes common place.

WikiLeaks has changed the information landscape and much as some can moralise to the point of suggesting extra-legal measures to punish as it were illegal activities we in the process fail to uphold the great principles that millions had already sacrificed their lives for in the Twentieth Century.

Porn can be compelling viewing

The anger is felt and the international framework of the black hand of diplomacy is placing heretofore conglomerates of capitalist democracies under pressure to dissemble about the marketplace that allowed for them to take WikiLeaks’ business.

WikiLeaks has become the new hard-core porn; whilst you as adults would for all sorts of reasons have the right to entertain yourselves with such material, it cannot be done on office time, you should not be found viewing such as US Federal employees have now been told not to do because the material is classified even though it is all now in the public domain but more egregious of us is a directive that threatened students who showed even the tacit support for WikiLeaks with the inability to find employment.

What you decide to do with hard-core porn on your own time in the confines of your privacy should be your business and yours only. If the pants of guilt consume you such that you seek absolution from your pleasure which to some is a vice and to the fundamentalist is a sin depends on how impressionable you might feel about the things you decide to consume and the kind of moral agent you are.

Our dependency complex

Human-beings seem to exercise the greatest dependency in reaching maturity and whilst some grow into maturity others transfer the dependency complex from parental and patriarchal figures to other kinds of leaders be they political, religious, social, economic or some other sphere of influence.

The seeming benefactors instil enough fear, threat and terror to curtail adventurism on the part of the many who can be dictated to, to toe the line and follow orders with the premise of patriotism and justice, their indignation whipped up into the frenzy of the mob as they are relieved of their rights of observation and expression for the greater good of not requiring their governments hold themselves accountable.

The function of WikiLeaks

The security breaches that have fed WikiLeaks are in no way the fault of WikiLeaks, the function of WikiLeaks if we have failed to notice is to leak information that has come into their possession, the matter of how that information is processed before dissemination is hardly the responsibility of WikiLeaks.

Like with hard-core porn some might want to watch the plot and the making out that develops into the full-blown action, others might just want to jump to the activity but it is unlikely that the viewer would have acquired the material for the purpose of assessing the dramatic content of the film – however, people would be titillated in different ways having viewed the material.

Where the porn analogy might fall through is where within that material something illegal seems to have occurred like the abuse of minors or something worse – in that case, caveat emptor, the viewer is advised.

Information all round

As for the detail contained in the leaks, I seem to know where every nuclear plant in Iran is courtesy of leaks provided by defectors (traitors of Iran but friends of the West) and now I know where every strategic US asset is, call your guards out, if your diplomats cannot maintain discretion preventing embarrassment the cost mounts in ensuring the guards are motivated enough not to allow the unfortunate to happen on their watch.

If anyone thinks hounding Julian Assange or closing WikiLeaks will end the expansive domain of the whistle-blower they have not learnt the most basic lesson of this WikiLeaks saga; as long as there is a message, there will always be a messenger and world is a very listening and attentive audience.

Just because porn works across borders, cultures, traditions, morals or feigned ethics, we all have our needs, even the ones we deny ourselves.