Thought Picnic: Beyond conscientious objection to fighting needless wars

The summary of my views

I was asked what my position was about the Russia and Ukraine crisis by a mentor of mine, and it allowed me to find the opportunity to transcribe from the notes I took down in anger on Friday night but was unsure of how to convey in a blog.

My answer was “We need to get to a point in human civilisation when young men can refuse to battle for recalcitrant old men who cannot settle their scores with some maturity. I hope Ukraine survives the onslaught.”

Before my viewpoint was taken as uncommitted to apparent indifference, I went on to say, “In fact, my stand is it is an unnecessary war for which Vladimir Putin who has a warped idea of national sovereignty and areas of influence should be taught an unforgettable lesson.” Obviously, it goes without saying that, If Ukraine has no self-determination on what alliances it can have, is it a sovereign state or a satellite of Russia?”

Between sacrifice and slaughter

Having spent 4 years in secondary boarding school, the prospect of a regimented life has never since appealed to me. There is indeed a high calling to serve and the discipline that it entails along with the purpose that defines it, but where do you draw the line between being ready to take the sacrifice and being sent to the slaughter?

In January 1983, in a conversation with my father, he said these words, “There was a time Nigeria was worth dying for, that time has passed.” It so happens my parents were in the UK during the Nigerian Civil War and once it was over, they could not wait to get back to Nigeria to contribute to rebuilding the nation.

To my mind, all war is at its heart totally unreasonable, the inability of leaders and / or older and apparently mature men to have a meeting of minds that they are ready to send the sons of others to battlefields whilst they play war games in genteel surroundings totally oblivious of the depth of suffering on the populace is an atrocity at best.

Keeping our men from bad men

The result of this is we are called upon to honour the war dead as some greater cause of humanity has been achieved and unstoppable progress has been bequeathed to civilisation never to go to war again. It is a lie, for lives are needlessly wasted as cannon fodder with war ending at exhaustion of will, men, or ammunition. We are in terms the most uncivilised in war, like animals you have only found more sophisticated ways to kill each other to a standstill.

I would hope we would reach a point where the men who disagree should sort it amongst themselves and the young men whose blood, they are ready to exsanguinate in the remote battlefields, should say no. This is not conscientious objection but a call to common sense or order, exhaust diplomacy and continue to talk to any agreement that you can reach without having to shed blood.

Beyond conscientious objection

For I desire a time when they, the valiant and strong would say, no, we are not going to fight your dirty, senseless, needless, and unnecessary wars. Our lives matter more than to become sacrificial lambs on the altars of your maniacal devilish egos.

Keep your medals, we do not need the glory, stuff your patriotic rhetoric, your folded national flags, and grand memorials to soldiers unknown. With no men going to war, what would men do given no other option than to talk and resolve things?

Too many men have with the power to send others to their deaths not exhausted the possibilities that the maturation of human civilisation and discourse can offer. Maybe something of the idealist and pacifist in me has taken a long trek from realism, it is however not to be wished away as impossible.

Opinion: Ukraine is a test of leadership in short supply

Putin is possessed

One is not known for commentary on international politics, nor am I informed enough to postulate on the historical relevance that leads to contemporary events being let loose on Ukraine. However, from what I have seen so far, something has rumbled the graves of Napoleon Bonaparte, Adolf Hitler, and Joseph Stalin, awakening their malevolent spirits to possess by legion Vladimir Putin.

The optics are there, the inordinately large tables, the command of his court by distance rather than a collegiate cabinet is the metaphor for a humongous throne with an absolute arch-emperor before whom a mirror would fail to reflect reality but profuse flattery that apparent trickery and genius would no doubt lead to a catastrophic fall through missteps that humans who have suspected themselves of inviolable omnipotence have come to the harsh truth of both mortality and transience of power.

It is just wrong

There is no doubt that we all have to hold our nerve on this matter that we cannot in the 21^st Century have a potentate marauding the northern hemisphere acquiring lands and nations in a quest for apparent security in buffer countries that immediately brings them to the borders of the threat they rail against. It might seem smart now, but our collective resolve needs to be demonstrated not in the sophistry of words but in the deftness of effective action.

Meanwhile, the traffic of 24-hour of rolling news has its toll on those of us who can only depend on our politicians to act for the sake of the preservation of humanity from untrammelled barbarity, wanton vandalism, atrocious impunity, and incurable madness. I switched my radio from BBC Radio 4 which is full of commentary, much of which is talk shop and vain jangling to BBC Radio 3 where I find the calming strains of classical music and absent myself for longer moments from the psychosis that is engulfing our world.

Indeed, there were other issues the world has been at fault for not addressing and we need to come back to look at them with a commitment for better peace and resolution in those troubled lands, but whataboutery is an expensive hobby. What is upon us is Ukraine, and it needs to be arrested with everything we have the power to do now.

Leadership is required now

My heart is with Ukraine, much as I have the luxury of being far away from the midst of conflict that touches me through energy prices and the cost of living that I am fortunate to have some means to weather. If we fail to contain and push back the menace of Putin, we would have unleashed what would have been the prospect of Hitler winning his war. It does not bear thinking of. It calls for leadership, statesmanship, political nous, and nerve. I hope the world leaders are up to the task.

If anything, like we have seen with the pandemic, we might choose comical and entertaining leaders in times of peace, but when they are tested in times of adversity and taxing circumstances, how many innocent lives would have been lost to the wrong choice of leaders we have made? If anything, competence is needed when it matters, and it matters more today.

Opinion: Thoughts on the Sharm el-Sheikh situation

A subjective view at first

One cannot help but notice a sense of unfortunate karma in the downing of the Russian Metrojet Airbus A321 – Flight 9268 over the Sinai Peninsula having just taken off from the Sharm el-Sheikh Egyptian tourist resort.

On my hearing of that air crash last week, my mind quickly turned to an earlier to the alleged shooting down of the Malaysian Airlines Flight MH17 over rebel Ukrainian territory, purported perpetrated with Russian weaponry with the loss of 298 souls.

One somewhat dominant view in this discourse that Russia is much implicated in that unfortunate Ukrainian incident by the way it has supported and aided the rebels, the chickens have now come home to roost in the sad loss of 224 souls in Egypt.

Exploring the situation

Yet, one cannot entirely eliminate the Russian intervention in Syria from the equation in terms of the desire of the Islamic State to avenge the drubbing attacks from Russian air strikes. Then, either by coincidence of sheer numbers, it had it be that it was a Russian airline that was targeted, but we must not ignore the fact that Russians make up about 60% of the tourists that visit Sharm el-Sheikh every year.

Daily as the news comes in, I watch how an unfortunate disaster is being turned into a diplomatic mess. Everyone is now coming to the agreement that a bomb went off on the flight, probably in the cargo hold. It can only have been put there either stealthily in someone’s baggage or some agent of the Islamic State had infiltrated the ground crew and secreted a bomb onto the plane.

Using intelligence without intelligence

The UK apparently intercepted some chatter well after the fact that it might have been a bomb days ago and rather than inform Egypt and Russia at the very least, they unilaterally suspended all flights to and from Sharm el-Sheikh precipitating a diplomatic crisis just as the President of Egypt was airborne on his way to the UK.

Whilst the price of having intelligence and the knowledge to use it can be valuable, this was one piece of intelligence any fool, talk less of a government should have been willing to share with other governments who in the end would have been saddled with the responsibility of how to deal with that information with regards to the safety of their citizens.

It makes you wonder what the harvesting of communications will achieve as a means to preventing criminality and terrorism if it only really matters for investigatory activities after the crime or terrorist act has happened.

The reprehensible politicisation of our humanity

I find it utterly disgraceful and amateurish that Her Majesty’s Government found political expediency instead of a greater service to humanity in this matter. It goes without saying that the UK government is responsible first for British lives abroad, but it does not make the lives of people of other nationalities any less worthy of given cover and safety to prevent another air disaster brought on by terrorist bombs.

How, the UK dealt with Egypt in unilaterally withdrawing flights is colonial imperialism in the extreme with a clear lack of respect for the government and people of Egypt. That it has not degenerated into a full diplomatic spat is one of providence rather than agency. In these days of modern communication, it would not have been impossible to get word to President Al-Sisi wherever he might be, even if we would not be dissuaded from our intentions.

Can the airport be safe?

However, it brings into the sharp relief the question of security at Sharm el-Sheikh International Airport, the staff on the ground are poor, poorly paid, corrupt or easily suborned; we have heard of people being fast tracked through security for a fee, there is no telling that there might well be a syndicate given to receiving bribes or inducements to completely short-circuit the security procedures for the convenience of some and invariably someone who intends to have a bomb placed in the cargo hold of a departing aircraft.

It is sad that only a few weeks ago when a friend told me of his booking a very affordable holiday to Sharm el-Sheikh, I opined that it was probably the safest place to go in the Middle East. The resort itself appears to be safe, the problem appears to be at the airport and the security procedures therein.

Egypt’s loss

If Egypt cannot win back the confidence of tourists that visitors can arrive safely and return home without mishap, Sharm el-Sheikh is at risk of losing its tourism draw and as a greater net contributor to the Egyptian tourism purse as well as a huge employer in a country that is still in political turmoil, the resultant effect will be dire for the Egyptian population at large.

Now that Russia has also suspended all flights to and from Egypt at large, along with a few other countries, the about 60,000 tourists from Russia and the many more that would have presented a bumper tourism season at the advent of Winter in Europe will find cancellations and bookings for other resorts that do not seem to be under threat presently.

It is a mess

Beyond that, it will be a logistical nightmare to evacuate the tourists from Sharm el-Sheikh, like yesterday, 21 out of the flights that would have been UK bound were cancelled at the behest of the Egyptian authorities that averred that the airport could not manage the traffic apart from the fact that tourists will only be able to return with their hand baggage, their luggage will follow sometime after.

Whilst Egypt denies this is a diplomatic situation, one can only give them the benefit of the doubt amidst the suspicion of ulterior motive. They have been dealt with quite shabbily and the resultant mess is partly of our own making, we are capable of better than this.

I reserve the greatest excoriation for the people who planned and planted the bomb on Flight 9268 and a close second to whom there must be opprobrium and contempt is Her Majesty’s Government with their absence of tact or diplomacy for ends that might look reasonable at face value but does not broach the very least that can be expected of good English manners, that I am appalled does not begin to describe my feelings.

Opinion: This is a time for outrage at the direct hits

A hypothetical

If the presumed BUK surface-to-air missile system shot from the territory of pro-Russian rebels in Ukraine had whizzed past Malaysia Airlines flight MH17, it might have been reported sighted and considered a near-miss with some expressing a bit of outrage at such a reckless activity.

Alas! It was a direct hit and with it 298 souls were lost, the consequence of which should have precipitated such outrage at the needless, careless and atrocious waste of human life wrought by bungling rebels with Russia's support.

Then again

Down in the Middle East, literally all the rockets fired from Gaza into Israel, whilst terrifying and capable of causing carnage with the loss of life and damage to goods and property, they are in their thousands, near misses. We must for all intents and purposes express outrage at the crude militancy that is no match to Israel’s firepower and organisation.

Then, you watch the missiles fired from Israel into Gaza that has no defence weaponry, literally every missile has been a direct hit, whether intentional or not, people are losing their lives in the hundreds and this calls for widespread outrage, because of the carnage caused, that is presented as a defence.

Between terror and killings

Now, I can understand the terror of missiles coming into Israeli cities, terrifying all, young and old; the government needs to have some strategy and game plan to deal with this nuisance, though I have my doubt that even with the incursion into Gaza, the missiles can be stopped entirely, for there is a deep-seated issue of unrest that is not been addressed towards achieving peace for Israel and its neighbours.

Yet, the terrified can be becalmed, for near-misses belie a stark reality along with a sense of survival. Direct hits are a different story, the people are dead and that is the end of their story.

Blood for fear barbarity

The exchange system between Israel and Palestine of avenging fear within the borders of Israel with the blood of Palestinians in their cooped-up regions as they are ring-fenced from Israel with settlements, borders and walls cannot be the roadmap to peace for all concerned.

What has developed is escalating belligerence with no prospect of peace on the horizon. More pertinently, until we are ready to express unbiased outrage at the needless loss of life anywhere in the world and make perpetrators of the killings accountable for their actions, we acquiesce and grant immunity for more impunity to those have taken the level of their lawless activities to an unspeakable level of atrocious violence.

We must condemn the near-misses, but the direct hits must attract the sternest criticism from all fair-minded members of our humanity as well unmitigated outrage.

Opinion: Finding the right food for the conscience - truth

"We are lying and finding sexier ways to do it." Sarah Firth

Narratives are many

Many current events in the world has forced people to take sides, speak fully persuaded of the narrative that appeals to them and that has become their truth.

Whether there are facts or evidence to support the view they espouse is another thing.

However, there is a tendency to buy into a narrative, to be identified by a Shibboleth and that becomes a sworn mantra to be recited to any that might have ears.

Know who is at fault

From the fundamentals, one can examine the sometimes odiously accepted view that a lady's dress is ultimately responsible for her being raped and that the rapist is excused, exculpated and never needing to account for the crime, that is how the seed of impunity is sown through a contrived narrative that grants immunity.

Yet, all you have to hear in any statement is the qualification, "ultimately responsible" and with that the perpetrator walks, the victim twice victimised and bereft of justice.

How we champion impunity

For decades, we have excused Israeli belligerence against its cheek by jowl Palestinian neighbours and lands adjacent, impunity reigning with the narrative of security and defence without any accountability, except to a contrived sense existential threat.

We all know Israel is there to stay, it is not under threat of extermination, even if words have been spoken to that effect, but it is a political and propaganda tool deftly used by reprehensible politicians to distract us from a deeper truth of untrammelled aggression, unspeakable atrocities and bloody injustices that make the heart ache.

We must apportion blame where it is due, whoever dropped the bomb is responsible for the carnage just as the other side is responsible solely for their own acts.

How deny the truth

I return to the analogy that regardless of the manner of dress, whether provocative or not, the rapist is responsible for the rape and that is where the law stands and where justice is sought.

Likewise, the downing of the Malaysia Airlines MH17 to Kuala Lumpur from Amsterdam was the sole criminal act of the pro-Russian rebels in eastern Ukraine, no other contrived narrative is permissible and they should be brought to book.

Provocation is not responsibility

Provocation should never become responsibility, if the provoked should choose to retaliate, the provoked should be held responsible for the consequences of their actions without dissimulation.

Therein is the matter of conscience as expressed in Sarah Firth's quote. Would we accept the lie of a contrived narrative or the truth of clear responsibility for particular actions?

I have a conscience, it has a duty to stay true by supporting the truth. It has the task of expressing my humanity of empathy, feeling, understanding and appreciating the broad spectrum of what life is.

For to know pain, suffering, injustice, cruelty and hurt is to begin to see the truth of aspects of our human wretchedness.

Most importantly we must save our consciences from being seared with narratives untrue that serves to exacerbate unconscionable impunity.

Postscript:

Sarah Firth resigned from reporting for RT today.

Saddened Poles on Russian returns without other prejudices

Another Pole lost in Russia

The week past had a few things rattle us but somewhat show the amazing collage of life and its events that we live in to experience and contemplate on.

Just yesterday we were greeted with an unfortunate tragedy which cost the life of the President of Poland [1] on Russian soil as he was on his way to commemorate the massacre of the Polish elite by Soviet Russian forces 70 years before.

Our hearts go out to the people of Poland on this great loss, sometimes history pens itself long before have the time to collect the thoughts around us to understand the significance of how it would affect us – but today, it is sympathy and condolences that matter.

The theatre of the caged primate

In the middle of the week, we were offered a glimpse in a future that the ruling party of South Africa would do well to avoid. A youth leader who had become a law unto himself spewing out rhetoric that belongs to times we would rather not remember.

I was compelled to write [2] that Julius Malema was the face of the worst of African youth, many commentators were forced to agree even though the young man seems to have a populist message that appeals to the basest of our instincts with the ability to inspire to the reprehensible and the despicable.

This embarrassment of a person had quite embarrassed the leadership of the ANC that they were forced to release a statement [3] reprimanding the miscreant and they set out a range of principles and views as to how anyone in leadership should conduct themselves for the good of South Africa at large.

One would hope Mr. Malema’s propensity for the theatre of the encaged primate would be restrained for the redeemed character of a probably rational human-being with a sense of responsibility and comportment – my expectations of him are however not that high.

Artyom Savelyev

The story of the 7-year old Russian boy returned like a malfunctioning toy [4] to the “shop of adoption” by a 33-year old [The original news story say she was 27] American nurse still riles and irks beyond comprehension.

The more one reads of the tale, the more incensed one gets as they try to paint themselves as victims [5] in the light of their utterly abhorrent behaviour.

The questions pile up from how two supposedly motherly women (this includes the adoptive grandmother) could have schemed to commit this heinous act to how isolated they are in their community.

In the light of other adoption mishaps [6] of Americans on children of Russian progeny, one can almost thank the heavens for Artyom’s good fortune of not being murdered and buried in the back garden where his toys lay idle [7].

It is amazing that they did not seek professional help to address the issues they raised in their adoption annulment note but with the use of the Internet which is a revelation of the bad influences of seeking information and assistance online probably obtained legal advice and then procured a stranger to help dump the child 7 time zones away from his source orphanage.

A Nobody if not American?

However, what matters the more is the reaction of society to this contemptible travesty of humanity and care – the idea that this child has no rights in the United States because he had not yet been registered as a citizen even though the adoption had been finalised and he had been with his adoptive family for at least six months is inexcusable.

Surely, your life and welfare cannot be insignificant and inconsequential because you are not American, though if he were American the basic charge of child abandonment would have been leveled.

Indeed, it is probably for some of the most particular import to bear American citizenship but in this case, to split hairs about the citizenship Artyom whilst Russians take umbrage and Americans assume a position of indifference and the legal inability to act is just unspeakable at best – meanwhile, that rotten family obtain vindication by default.

I fear, it sets forth a precedent that affords the abuse of non-Americans with impunity and without consequence. There must be some responsibility and accountability for what happened to Artyom regardless of the fact that many Russo-American adoptions are a reflection of failings within the Russian system.

Add your voice to this matter by joining the Facebook [8] page that supports Artyom Savelyev.

Sources

[1] BBC News - President Lech Kaczynski's body returns to Poland

[2] South Africa: Malema, the glaring face of the worst of Africa's youth [akin.blog-city.com]

[3] allAfrica.com: South Africa: Zuma Repudiates Youth Leader Over Attack on Journalist

[4] Artyom Savelyev deserves a loving mother [akin.blog-city.com]

[5] Grandmother: Boy terrorized adoptive family in US : News from the Associated Press

[6] Russia furious over adopted boy sent back from US

[7] In Tenn., Reminders of a Boy Returned to Russia - NYTimes.com

[8] Facebook | Support Artyom Savelyev

Spotting the English from afar

Roddy Rowdy English

The English have gotten themselves a reputation for raucous rowdiness and public nuisance. I was at the Diana Ross tribute entertainment put up by my hotel which was good enough entertainment with good dresses and acceptable voices.

After a few songs the performers decided to go through a list of countries to find out who was from where – after 10 or so countries with the mildest of responses, I had already responded to the call for those from the Netherlands, then England came up.

There were quite a few and they did make noise louder than every other grouping, but the performers were not convinced because they had that bad stereotype of the England that they first made that perspective clear indicating we are a noisy boisterous bunch and then they called out for England again.

The affected responded to type and that was England revealed and sealed in its doomed reputation – I could not cry for England anymore.

As English as Fish and Chips

However, dinner offers the choice of a buffet of entrées and either a la carte or a buffet plat principal – the variety of cuisines is extensive covering all the Mediterranean countries, North and South, the Asian continent, Southern American fare and the local boiled salted potatoes with mojo sauce – you just have to try something different each day.

Amidst this feast and a banquet of choices almost unlimited, the idea of being on holiday with a sense of adventure should have your plate radiant with colour and exquisite tastes – amazingly, I could see and identify the English from a long way off – can you believe they only had fish and chips on their plates?

This hotel restaurant does gourmet, it is not some all-you-can-eat Chinese joint in the middle of some tourist street, the salmon gets carved in front of you, the ham comes straight off the shank into your plate, the designs on the large vegetables would make Mexican paintings look like kindergarten finger-painting and they end up with fish and chips – Give me peace.

Ordering vodka by the pint

With the UEFA Champions League final being an all-English affair in Moscow, someone would be trying to convince me that you can separate sports from politics.

Relations between the UK and Russia are not at their most cosy and definitely there are issues between Europe and Russia even though the same Russia is represented in European football as it is in the EuroVision Song Contests.

It would be interesting to see how the Russians process 42,000 visas for the fans of Chelsea and Manchester United – the projection is there would not be enough flights to cart the troops and Moscow does not come cheap – but football does have a fanaticism that is more compelling that cult membership.

The Sun newspaper that I had the misfortune of leafing through yesterday decided to get in on the game of helping the English get along in Moscow with an English-Russian guide that included the statement – Can I have two pints of vodka and a packet of crisps?

That, I would tell you, is the height of irresponsibility on a grand scale for a national newspaper, we have enough problems with the issue of English fans; keeping them sober is the beginning of peace and order – to advocate the serving of vodka by the pint does not serve this cause well at all, it is complete beneath contempt.

Anywhere you go, you will always spot the English, I suppose.

Putin and Chavez - Great Leader or Dear Leader?

Overstaying your incumbency

If democracy is just the ability to walk out and vote and hopefully get your vote counted we had a demonstration of that concept yesterday.

I cannot however say that the use of democratic means to decide a direction of governance ends up in a democratic situation – we saw examples of that in Russia and Venezuela.

The week before, it was the elections in Australia where John Howard who had been in leadership over a decade had failed to realise that he had overstayed his welcome.

He lost the premiership and on confirmation would most likely lose his parliamentary seat. That is a damning indictment of a leader who had brought great progress and prosperity to his nation, but somehow, leaders have a tendency to be absorbed by arrogance and hubris that makes them think no one else could do the job better than they have been doing.

Leaders who have become bosses

This incumbency-complex that gravitates towards a pseudo-dictatorship is dangerous because the leader begins to project his ideas as right and hence the only solution whilst regaling us with the idea that leadership is really tough.

This kind of conviction plagued Tony Blair towards the end of his long premiership which left him almost the most unpopular prime minister for generations at the time of his leaving; it has plagued George W. Bush, but now he is moving into a multilateral phase possibly to secure a legacy for himself in the Israeli-Palestinian issue.

Abusing democratic process

The Russia and Venezuela, Vladimir Putin and Hugo Chavez have been schemed to use the democratic process to entrench their incumbency, Mr. Putin would most likely metamorphose into a Prime Minister with considerably more powers than the incumbent has and would serve under a President that would be made into a ceremonial head of state.

The Russian constitution precludes Mr. Putin from serving another term as President, but being absorbed with the idea that no one else can rule Russia in his stead with authority and purpose, he would assume another national leadership post to keep in control.

The was a time I sympathised with Hugo Chavez and the leader of a developing economy that was ploughing some of the nation’s resources and moneys into improving the plight of the poor who had been left uncatered for by successive governments.

America’s moral laxity

Unfortunately, his mildly socialist rhetoric has gained virulence and notoriety exacerbated by America’s complacency when he was overthrown some 6 years ago.

America always fails to learn and lead in the matters of fairness, justice and balance when the issues of democracy, civil rights and oil collide. It acts like a multi-dimensional chameleon in the pursuit of self-interest instead of upholding the mantle of liberal democracies built on vibrant capitalist economies – thereby, it has little moral authority and the only muscle is seems to be able to wield is the projection of military power anywhere on the globe.

Even bullies eventually have their come-uppance and America is sometimes left with allies who can only lend support in word but hardly in means.

Chavez – all mouth

Having arrogated to himself presidential rule-by-decree, Mr. Chavez was not satisfied with the extent of executive authority as his socialism bandwagon gathered steam towards a 21^st Century aberration.

The theory of socialism probably has idealist and Utopian goals, the practice however has yield much less of that ideal – it entrenches a ruling elite that brooks no opposition; it stifles open debate; oppresses the free media; enacts laws for the purpose of exercising omniscience in all areas of the community and society whilst producing too much government that fosters corruption, reduces efficiency, promotes nepotism (See, Time.com - Where everyone important is a Chavez) and sycophancy and eventually destroys the country.

The Time Magazine in Petro Laggard highlights the fact that Venezuela sits on one of the largest reserves of heavy crude which needs large injections of cash to realise and maintain – not much seems to be done to ensure that this “golden goose” of the oil industry remains healthy to satisfy Venezuela’s obligations to the increasing demands for fossil fuels.

Democracy sometimes delivers

However, the referendum that failed yesterday by a margin of just 2% is a welcome development for a motor-mouth that was running out of control.

The question again is why one man thinks out of every good person that can be mentioned in his country, he is the only one who can properly govern his country and bring the goods home.

France is working hard to rescind the 35-hour-week because it offers no particular economic competitive advantage in a global economy and Mr. Chavez proposed to bribe his people with a 36-hour-week, reduced from 44 – no nation of slothful laggards can survive with that slovenly demeanour – projects would take forever and considering the red-tape that socialist ministries can spurn, the country would most definitely grind to a halt.

In the times of almost $100/barrel oil, Mr. Chavez seems to be awash with much cash and little sense of the fact that Venezuela belongs to a global economy, his quest to control the Central Bank of Venezuela is no less the money-grab of a highwayman – it takes more that socialist dogma to run a bank.

Yes, the Venezuelans love their leader but not enough to allow him manipulate the democratic process to deliver a dictatorship thriving on the cult of personality, for that, I am very glad.

Democracy sometimes grates

Mr. Putin has deployed every Soviet tool to grab the election for the United Russia Party that he supports, they have all the means to change the constitution to whatever they might desire, however, I would suppose they would limit their greed to knowing that capability.

All people of a nation should be happy to vote if there was a level playing field in the democratic process – it would appear, hurdles were put in the way of opposition parties who were harassed by thugs and miscreants, they never had equal access to the media, workers were threatened with their livelihoods if they did not toe of the line and monitors did not have untrammelled access to ensure the elections were free and fair.

The party leader announced yesterday that the national leader is Mr. Putin and one can only wonder if this leader would be in the mould of the Dear Leader or the Great Leader none of which augurs well.

On two ends of the world, leaders drunk on the proceeds of oil and intoxicated with power have tried to assume eternal incumbency and omnipotence – one succeeded and the other failed.

America: Maniac with razor blades

From Russia with pique

When going to negotiate, it is best to be able to do that form a position of strength. However, the moment your sanity is questioned you will have an uphill task to be taken seriously and that can become insurmountable.

Very recently, President Putin of Russia has been sabre-rattling and implacable on the matter of missile defence system America has been trying to plant in Eastern Europe to protect its allies from a threat that only now exists in the wild imagination of some.

Iran as far as we know is developing nuclear technologies, however, it is not at least clear to what end – the Iranians say their activities are to peaceful ends of energy sufficiency, America has however cajoled quite a few countries into thinking these activities are geared towards weaponisation threatening the military balance in the Middle-East.

Iran for the elephants’ duel?

There is that fear, but it is yet unfounded, Russia at least does not believe that these activities for a nuclear weapons ability, we also know that Russia is currently building Iran’s first nuclear plant.

It might be that Iran is becoming a theatre of war where it is the grass on which two elephants would fight to the death, but America, for now has its hands full with the debacle in Iraq as Russia has its coffers full with the proceeds of oil money.

One has to commiserate with Iran’s position being flanked on two sides by alien armies, I still believe that it would be remiss and irresponsible of any government of the country, theocratic, democratic or tyrannical not to be engaged in some possible invasion deterrent strategy which might include developing nuclear weapons if necessary.

There would have been no impetus for Iran’s dabbling if Iraq had not been so ignominiously stripped of its leadership and dignity, being left a military mess without foreseeable end.

Respect and equality critical for negotiations

Global politics does not always have to favour the World-Order according to the narrowly-focused view of the West being always in ascendancy, in fact, the only way to win in negotiations is to treat other parties with respect, equality, patience and temperance.

Mr. Putin was able to point to the issue of North Korea where this kind of negotiating spirit has yielded dividends in view of the fact that they already have nuclear weapons, even if the project is stopped, the brains cannot lay fallow, they have to engaged purposefully or they would be bought up by stateless organisations with nefarious objectives.

So the announcement this week of sanctions freezing Iran out of the American monetary system has been greeted with defiance from Iran, another record-high for oil prices where Iran and Russia are the sellers and a qualified put-down by President Putin.

“Why worsen the situation and bring it to a dead end by threatening sanctions or military action?” Putin asked. “Running around like a madman with a razor blade, waving it around, is not the best way to resolve the situation.”

Razor blades hurting us

It would appear, America really is clueless about how to resolve issues with nations that are diametrically opposed to their world view – in the same week, President Bush was blowing hot and cold over Cuba that they have not been able to change for almost 5 decades re-affirming the measures imposed before I was born and reaching no intended solution. Is Cuba not just 90 miles south of the United States of America? And they want to set the world to rights elsewhere.

As President Putin continues with, “Why keep rocking the foundations of the international law, encourage and develop separatism in Europe and the ex-Soviet space?”

More so, we now have a situation in the world where the war on terrorism is the hammer and anyone who has a contrarian view is a nail, no other view exists in the face of a pummelling hammer, it does not augur well for anyone and very few countries can pay for oil running to $100 per barrel.

The world is a lot more than stopping a country from playing with uranium.

This gas flare marks the North Pole

Planting a stiff flag

If civilisation ever does come to Rossiyskaya Federatsiya, it probably would not be in this century. I never thought anyone could go lower than a snake's belly but at the top of the world they got into their Kursk-like bubbles and descended 4.2 kilometres to the seabed under the North Pole and planted a rust-proof titanium metal Russian flag. [BBC News Story].

When Hillary (New Zealander) and Tenzing (Nepalese) planted a British and possibly a Nepalese flag at the summit of Mount Everest in 1953, it was not claimed as land belonging to the great British Empire and neither are the British taking tribute for the many that get dragged up or piggy-backed up the mountain.

Time might even come when getting to the summit would be a simple chopper ride from the sunny climes of the Indian subcontinent for a three-minute photo opportunity to hug someone in the late stages of pulmonary oedema and taking a last message back to loved ones becomes a more laudable quest than mountaineering.

Proximity for conservation

There is no doubt that Arctic and Antarctic facing countries and the some wayfaring countries of old have bases on the lands of the earth's poles and they all conduct research quite relevant to understanding how our stewardship of the world's resources and ecosystems might be failing.

But to then go round planting flags and laying claim to land or seabed just because you got there first in an area that is essentially in keep for the whole human race with the view of exploiting the resource for selfish national profit smacks of 15^th Century adventurism in the paraphrased words of the Canadians.

Results of the scrambles

It reminds one of Africa where the seeming orderly alignment of country borders in the 1880s is aptly called the Scramble for the Partition of Africa, nothing could have been more savage than to observe the savagery of seemingly cultured Europeans corralling "savages" into pens which are now called African countries.

Worse still was the pox and syphilis that Europeans brought to South and Central America that wiped out vast civilisations for which no reparation has been made or the indigenous tribes of North America whose only claim to the land is the footprints of reservations dotted around the landscape where the excess of gambling trade is the only economic development available.

The last insult is where the invaders having attained population superiority over the last few centuries of wiping out every vestige of the indigenes now have the effrontery to want to make English the National or even Official language of the United States.

Stop this nonsense

This race to the partition of the poles should and must stop, if anything must be exploited of those vast resources that have turned the energy megalomaniac Russians into resurgent but irrational global power brokers, it must be done under the auspices of the United Nations for the benefit of the whole world.

Frankly, the resources must be left well alone as the stability and equilibrium of our existence is already under threat from the abuse of the resources we already have access to, more of the same abuse for the accumulation of wealth to weald undue influence around the globe is not good for humanity and I hope that would become the civilisation of Russia.

This is the time for the United Nations to become seriously relevant and rubbish this quest without equivocation, before the poles become a centre of atrocious nuclear grandstanding between world powers whose coup de grace in terms of global warming might as well be a gas flare sited on the North and South poles.

In the name of science, misplaced national pride or apish chest beating, I am not impressed with this development. No, not at all.

The Ideological Contagion of dummy capitalism

A contagion most contagious

I could not help but snigger when an analyst from Goldman Sachs appeared on CNN and depicted the possibility of some Chavez socialist ideas being taken on by other Andean states as Ideological Contagion.

Now, that is something he definitely thought of earlier, however, that is beside the point. The threat to nationalise a number of previously privatised utilities lead to the suspension of trading in the shares of a number of companies which lost between 20% to 30% of their value as investors took fright.

Evidently, many political socialists are oblivious of market economics and how capitalism works, in fact, the only Nobel Prize winner in Economics from a socialist background won on the topical issue of the theory of optimum allocation of resources – the fixation on redistribution of resources and wealth without assessing merit creates an island of states that really cannot insulate themselves from the march of globalisation. [This comment is not an exegesis on the economics of allocation of resources or the socialist contexts of Karl Marx]

Chaos borne from Communism

Many would say the fall of Communism created a more peaceful world as we relaxed from the Cold War and settled into a more destabilising war between civilisations.

The states that gave up Communism and adopted shades of democracy have also ensconced capitalism, however, none have matured in appreciating the voice of their people now have they really accepted the force and good of market economics.

Nowhere is this more evident than in Moscow through the unconscionable way they instituted an asset raid on Yukos by claiming back-taxes that bankrupted the company because the chief executive of the company chose to pitch his tent in political opposition to the president.

Force of government abuse

All those assets are now in the hands of the Russian government, but two wrongs do not make a right. The sell-off of the national chattels to influential ex-Communists and opportunistic smart cads – oligarchs - in the Yeltsin years was wrong, however, rather than seek redress through the Rule of Law (A sign of matured democracies) and due process (another sign of matured democracies), the state apparatus terrorised and appropriated with untrammelled lien every means to redress that Yukos to access to dig themselves of out the rut.

So also, we see the kind of muscle that Gazprom exerts on all foreign investment with the force of government to invalidate contracts and threat major loss of investment that investors are literally stampeded into accepting minority stakes in their major investments to remain in business in Russia.

The first gas war

Last January, we saw the distorted face of capitalism when Gazprom decided subsidies to Ukraine were no more economical and rather than present a graduated withdrawal of subsidies, we were seeing price hikes of up to 50% for economies that would literally collapse if they were to be exacted.

A resolution was reached, but not without Europe realising that their energy security was being threatened by a newcomer to capitalism who had goods to sell but no marketplace decorum.

We were introduced to a large nation that was getting drunk on being the largest exporter of gas and oil, these was now being used a tool of political leverage to emasculate the near-abroad that was adopting a more Western outlook.

Europe with more money than sense

Historically, the USSR was somewhat energy self-sufficient, when the Soviet Union broke up; the states came to an arrangement which involved subsidised exports to these former Soviet republics.

The issue of subsidy arises because another part of energy economics does not necessary relate the cost of production to the selling price, but it is more related to the affordability of the demand-led sector.

It explains why Europe is probably paying over the odds for Russian oil and this is being used as a standard of measure of non-European countries which have hardly 20% of the average GDP of EU-15, probably more in relation to EU-25 or EU-27. Gazprom had 3^rd Quarter profits increase 68% in 2005.

The second oil and gas war

This energy bullying stance came to a head in December when Gazprom decided to double the price of Belarusian fuel supplies, they came to an agreement but Russia is now being taught a lesson in understanding their means of production when trying to reach their market.

In the case of Ukraine, the pipeline was a branch off from the main European supply route, Belarus however is the trunk of the European pipeline network, and everything goes through Belarus and they are not looking to make any friends and do not care.

Gazprom in its gullibility thought they could squeeze Belarus and then expect their oil to traverse the land of Belarus without sanction, retribution or reaction, well, a tit-for-tat in which Belarus imposed crippling taxes on traversal, extracted payment with oil and Russia ended up closing the pipeline as Europe looks on helpless against the tyranny of capitalism in the hands of cretins.

Learning capitalism the hard way

If Russia cannot get its oil to its customers, it would either have to back down with egg on its face or invade Belarus and institute regime change. No matter how reviled the Belarusian president Lukashenka is, standing up to Russia would fuel the embers of nationalism and support for their president.

This would lead to a very interesting conclusion.

Then we move on to Thailand where after a military coup, the government decided to tinker with the markets by imposing currency controls to prevent the flight of capital, that day, the market fell 15%, the first time the Thai market fell so much in its 31-year history.

The ideological contagion of stupid economics

The Ideological Contagion is very much like boys trying to play the games of real men, capitalism and market economics are not levers one can push and pull in isolation, these ideas sit in a globalised setting where everyone is in a train at the top of a steep incline, one wrong pull and the thing goes hurtling down unstoppably to a demise too gruesome to record.

Russia was never ready for capitalism and they are not in school learning to do it right, it would now take an unruly dictatorship to teach the lesson that without your means of good transportation, you would be making no capital; if your goods traverse fields you do not own, you should remain good friends with that field owner.

Venezuela probably wants to get those privatised organisations on the cheap and that is best done by threatening to create the flight of capital – however, does a nationalised entity end up getting better managed for the government or do company taxes paid by a privatised entity create more revenue?

As for Thailand, the military government would find no legitimacy, they must have forgotten that the economy is no Army battalion that you can order around like some recruit in a boot camp, I am sure they have duly learnt a lesson they would not forget.

References

Gazprom’s Strategy

The Folly of Renationalisation

The Kinks In Russia's Oil Pipeline

Setting democracy ablaze with gas

Terror – an evil pre-occupation

Hardly 48 hours have past into the year 2006 and a number of uncomfortable developments are now taking place which threaten a lot more of our freedoms and liberties than the inordinate if not evil pre-occupation with the war on terror.

As usual our leaders are caught napping as their firm gaze on one issue distracts them from a bigger global picture that could creep upon us like a rolling cloud of mustard gas and envelop us like a nuclear mushroom canopy from which we have no escape.

Impossible expectations

The more obvious one is gas; this is a little battle of wills and integrity between Russia and Ukraine where hardly a week ago Ukraine was threatened with the loss of gas supplies which heretofore had been subsidised or discounted and now is to be hiked fourfold in price.

That deadline passed on New Years Day as pressure was then reduced in the gas pipelines in order to starve Ukraine of gas.

The paradox is that Russia’s gas supply network feeds most of Europe but for now passes through Ukraine where Ukraine is supposed to ethically and honestly allow gas to pass through their land to Europe even when they might be subject to privations in economy and well-being.

To expect to hold Ukraine up to a standard of international rectitude that one would hardly find examples of anywhere on earth is not only unconscionable but really laughable because Ukraine can as well close off the complete gas network and somebody somewhere will be left wanting in reputation, reliability and credibility.

Meanwhile a new pipeline is being built to bypass Ukraine into Europe through Germany where the ex-chancellor has been tapped for chairmanship of the organisation providing that service - nepotism does not become Europe just as Mr Shroeder is Mr Putin's good friend.

This is not a little local flare

This little squabble between these ex-Soviet partners is however affecting a lot more than Ukraine and Russia; countries west of this fracas are already suffering a degradation of supplies, noting that their reserves might not be sufficient enough to see through an extended gas famine.

Industries first and then probably households would be affected, and then some organisations could be asked to switch to oil which is greater pollutant than gas with its environmental consequences.

Economies would be on the wobble as gas futures reckoning for shortage could exert inflationary pressures on the European economy as a whole, whilst logistics are put in place to research for alternative gas supplies and transportation systems.

Democracy a hostage

Democracies can be put under undue pressure leading to social unrest and an unmanageable polity such that governments might not just collapse but the countries are in danger of becoming failed states from the exertion of this kind of energy starvation muscle. Classic how to create disorder.

It can be said that Ukraine is being punished for exercising their democratic right to choose who they want rather than who has been imposed from afar.

We have had strongly worded commentary from the United States State Department; however, Russia as the prospective chairman of the G-8 group of advanced economies is being appeased rather than upbraided.

The force of democratic dissent to such abuse of power reminiscent of either the Stalin times or the US 1970’s foreign policy pertaining to Central America is more a whimper and a wail than a wallop with a resounding wham!

Winning the wrong war

Here we are, winning the war on terror by preventing the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, arresting acts money laundering and trampling on civil liberties amidst the hysteria of saving lives and promoting patriotism as a more benign enemy is destabilising the life-blood of our industries, economies, comforts and democracies.

Amusingly, only little Netherlands has self-sufficient gas supplies in the whole of Europe and what is left over does not compensate for the possibility of a catastrophic weather breakdown from this Siberian ill-wind.

This is just gas, but by the time China decides to call in the loans that underpin the United States bloated budget deficit, would the death of democracy herald another world order?

The possible unexpected

You might shake your heads and say this will not happen, however, I can just see how this can be diplomatically achieved just as we have made so much progress in North Korea, Iran, Zimbabwe, Sudan (Darfur), Russia and Ukraine.

For now, our freedoms, principles and liberties are threatened more by the realities of what Russia, China and Oil-producing countries can wield than the ideologies that emanate from Al-Qaeda adherents. It is however unlikely that this would excite the attention of our ever so astute leaders.