Condolezza brings condolences - maybe more

Would Condi be doing Condolences?

One can only begin to wonder what Condolezza Rice would be attempting to achieve when she gets to the Middle-East today.

There is no argument that Israel does have the right to defend itself and it should be done vigorously, however, the manner and strategy at play does leave one wondering what they intend on achieving.

I am still of the view that focus has shifted – if that was ever the focus - from dealing with Hamas and Hezbollah militarily to the point that it is looking like the economic obliteration of those societies and psychological propaganda with the hope that wanton destruction of all types of infrastructure would make people withdraw support from those organisations.

Whose terrorists are they anyway?

Until we move from the view of looking at those organisations through the blinkered view of terrorists, because only Israel, America and Europe labels elements of Hamas and Hizbollah as terrorist – we would fail to realise that these groups also represent the aspirations of people who have been deprived and wronged on the one hand, they are also the least corrupt of the leaderships emanating from their peoples.

There is no doubt that Europe and America are very well at variance on the matter in the Middle-East, it was evident in the eavesdrop between Bush and Blair – where Bush thought Syria held the keys to stopping the shit and Blair saw a bigger issue.

Arms away

To now hear that in the midst of the outrageous abuse of military might Israel is acquiring new precision weapons from America leaves one completely gob smacked – America is helping to add fire to an untenable situation which might now go on for another few weeks.

The Arabs would take good note of that and hopefully would give a Condi a stern view of this atrocious development.

I could be that it is American weaponry that is used to cause suffering, pain and loss in the Middle-East, the availability of which feeds Israeli bravado to the drunken swagger of believing there is a military solution to this conflict.

I think NOT.

Peace born of negotiation

Like it or not, Israel would have to negotiate with these “terrorists”, if they do succeed to eliminating military threat of Hezbollah by bombing television stations amongst other things, they had better be ready for guerrilla warfare.

Taking a foothold in Lebanon might bring in a less desirable grouping of terrorists – Al Qaeda in Lebanon on the border of Israel would be the least acceptable conclusion to this military escapade.

I have my doubts any of the proponents can achieve the objective of peace with this indiscriminate bombing and the possibility of new arms from a seemingly rotten cause.

The year of Armageddon upon us

The gambler makes his bid

I think by now we can come to the conclusion that Mr. George W. Bush is taking orders from higher authority which transcends the logic and thinking of mere mortals like you and I.

This Iraqi plan (Full Text of the address) to feed more cannon fodder to the meat-mangler of sectarian violence in Baghdad and other volatile regions of Iraqi seems to have the support nobody but Bush and the mortals elevated to the status of Cabinet or advisor with the occasional legislator and commentator to boot.

Like the cover of this week’s Economist – Baghdad or Bust – Mr, Bush might be unto something, a conviction that goes beyond nominal reason that the confidence that exudes beyond every contrary advice leaves us almost saying, this might work and maybe it would.

Read report do opposite

After the report of those eminent persons in the Iraq Study Group (ISG) which gave us a feeling that some reason has come into this Iraqi debacle, Mr. Bush has taken a completely opposite view of that report.

Basically, by redeploying everyone of importance in the Iraq venture before the ISG report be they military commanders, ambassadors, intelligence chiefs or personal advisors and in the process created a new “Team Iraq”. One thing is clear; many of these newbies have been long in their careers and are hardly driven by ideology.

One might however wonder if this quality allows the primacy of the Commander-in-Chief to hold sway over objective analysis and hence lead to less opposition the President’s resolution on these matters.

Still giving the cold-shoulder to Iran and Syria

We have been told that Iran and Syria are contributors by ways and means to the instability in Iraq, the ISG was quite particular in emphasising the need to engage Iran and Syria diplomatically by milking their relevance to Middle-East stability and clearly highlighting their compromised interests if they are uncooperative.

It would appear, this is not a path that the President would adopt, his Secretary of State is now in the Middle-East speaking to the wrong people in the hope that ignoring and isolating Iran and Syria would bring the necessary peace dividends to Iraq, well, and she must also know something we do not.

Rather than engage with Iran, a raid was conducted on the Iranian Consulate in Irbil, Northern Iraq by American troops; this escalation in reckless militancy cannot have been done without the knowledge of the president, considering the possible consequences of this action.

The nuke of Armageddon is primed

And as we are still being fed the view that Iran is busy developing military nuclear capability, we must not forget that Seymour Hersh reported in November 2006 that a secret CIA report indicated that there was “no proof” – their qualification - that Iran is developing nuclear arms in tandem with the civilian developments that have been declared to the International Atomic Energy Agency.

It could be that Israel might decide to launch a nuclear raid on Iranian nuclear infrastructure though denial might as well have an element of surprise to it.

This leaves us in a bit of a quandary, the possibility of a “U-See 3 EyeS” (US, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Syria) eye sore of the carnage of war that involves the United States, Iraq, Iran, Israel and Syria – maybe, 2007 is really the year of Armageddon – again – Mr. Bush probably knows more about this than we could every phantom.

Like having a Hard Rock thrown at you

A study in change

A whole week of silence and the dog ate my blog, well that sometimes happens to ones homework.

There were many things I wanted to write about, the face of George W. Bush when he received the Iraq Study Group Report – main point being, the only course is discourse with Iran and Syria – the time for moping is over, you just have to do some talking if Mess-O-potamia is going to see anything like peace.

Besides, the incoming Secretary of Defense had the Senators checking their hearing devices when he answered in a matter of fact way that the war in Iraq is not being won.

If George W. Bush had thought he could scupper the intent, tone and delivery of the Iraq Study Group report by poaching someone for a sensitive position from amongst their ranks, he has just been introduced to a new ball game and all hitters are hitting straight for the head – Ouch! I feel your pain Georgie.

Sit on the Hard Rock

Meanwhile, in the midst of all that kafuffle, Chief Yellow-Feather was busy smoking peace pipes on a Hard Rock – Indian reservations which have licenses to run gambling business very much like the effect the Opium Wars had on China are making serious money and making big deals.

The gambling houses do not seem to have created the wealth for drug and alcohol-abuse which sometimes plagues indigenous tribes and aborigines, somehow, these guys wised up and have made good.

Next time you visit a Hard Rock Café, sit in the wigwam, smoke a peace pipe, have a communal chant as we see the Indians begin to make a killing of the cowboys – history and restitution might live centuries apart but methinks the Indian is arriving with loads-a-money. Don’t forget you feather head dress – so you how much we have learnt from amusing generalizations.

Slow cook Polonium

The radiation fallout is still appearing in more places that I wonder if my impending trip to London is a wise idea – Alright! I would not panic, I would stick to mum’s cooking – Mum! - I shriek - "There is shine in my soup", "That is just oleum" she replies comforting her little boy.

The past is kicking the bucket

That said; Pinochet finally kicked the bucket, the end of an era that leaves memories of how America thwarted democracies that leant towards a socialist ideology for the tyranny of military dictatorships that prey on right-thinking people.

There are still many of that era that live without retribution for the pain and suffering they have caused people in South and Central America – Pinochet would be mourned by just a few, I do wish Kissinger well, but he should try visiting Europe.

This brings me to the dinosaurs that remain in power for eons – Ayoke once wrote of a sermon she heard which is quite enlightening.

The future restrained

30 years ago, General Obasanjo who was then the Head of State of Nigeria visited a school and told the students that they were the future of Nigeria – 30 years on, Chief Obasanjo is President of Nigeria and is impeding the opportunities he suggested those students had 30 years before.

The leaders of old, old ways, old ideologies, old methods, old corrupt activities are still gathering to rule Nigeria – we forget that 36 years before, Colonel Obasanjo took the surrender for the Biafran War, what are they still doing running the country into the ground?

When shall the new consume the old like an unquenchable fire yielding the ashes of our past such that we are no more shackled but free?

By which time I realized that on December the 8^th, I had been blogging for three years, why quit when you are having fun?

Left with the bread crumbs of Middle East diplomacy

I’m not doing dinner

It probably was an expression of glee that came across my face when last night we learnt that the Prime Minister of Iraq had decided not to join George W. Bush and the King of Jordan for dinner.

I should know the feeling, I should have been having dinner with my agent when for some “personal” reason she pulled out of the arrangement and then invited me for one of those dastardly Christmas parties where, I end up being the only sober one at 1:00AM listening to the drivel of inebriated colleagues – No thanks!

Every which way it was spun; it was a clear snub to the leader of the Free World who had squandered every opportunity to make a positive difference to world as his non-Midas touch begins to turn golden opportunities into cack-handed diplomacy.

We can, without America

There seems to be an “in spite of America” development in the Middle East; the Palestinians have negotiated a ceasefire with Israel which seems to be holding. Iraq has renewed diplomatic ties with Syria, and whilst Dubya was busy sulking about being blown out, the President of Iraq was being feted in Iran.

America should have been speaking to these countries for the peace and stability of Iraq, but their myopic sense of hubris has personalized what can only be realized through deliberation and consensus.

In the end, the country that used to be the mediator of grand Middle-Eastern handshakes was left trying to gather the crumbs of diplomacy falling from the table of self-determinant negotiations between neighbouring countries that recognize their need for each other.

So, Condoleezza Rice is on a scurry between Israel and Palestine, giving assurances and offering lame support, those are circumstances that America has with adept created for themselves.

It all comes out – sooner or later

Beyond that, 35 years before, as the India-Pakistan war came to be, some rather unpalatable things (bitch) were said of one of the principals in conversation, that recorded conversation made the light of day in 2005, tensions rose, with anger expressed, profuse apologies after from Henry Kissinger to the heirs of Indira Gandhi and the Indian people.

It did not stop the President of that time – a Richard Nixon from referring to her as an old witch – historians would be at pains not to consider the views of the President and his Secretary of State as policy or the standard with which they had dealings with India despite protestations to the contrary.

Leaks and no plumbers about

As we humans are the poorest students of history as a means of learning to do things better, Mr Nouri al Maliki’s snub came just when a leaked document from the National Security Adviser questioned the ability for the Iraqi leader to handle the mess that America created in the first place.

Obviously, there was the little issue of supporters at home in Iraq not keen on this Iraqi-American summit.

Mr. Stephen Hadley must have thought his advice would be covered by some official secrets diktat such that the dramatis personae would only have learnt of this poor vote of confidence 30 years on.

At the risk of sounding cynical, one can only wonder what they also think of their man in Afghanistan and beneath of the public veneer of great freedom and democracy in Iraq and Afghanistan, the lesser known reality is the bluster is really an attempt to stage a suitable “cut and run”.

For now, it is too late to send any of these American diplomats for a course in Diplomacy 101 – What you never want discovered must never be thought, let alone spoken, if published, you are damned.

Now, taking applications for “How to be nice 001”.

Many U-turns Required - II

The comment below was made anonymously in response to my article on Many U-turns Required; I try to address the issues raised with interspersed comments as follows.

[Comment] So the U.S should talk to every perceived enemy in the world-and that solves it and makes GW Bush a good world leader - Condi should jet out on and talk to them all.

[Response] I think there is no point trying to stress that the US and the kind of policies that GW Bush has espoused over the last 6 years are predicated on the fact that a country like the US in the absence of a Cold War does need an enemy to serve as a foil to project power and influence around the world.

North Korea, Syria, Iran, Sudan and Venezuela all offer opportunities to project fear on the American people about dangers at home as much as their getting stuck into the quagmires that are Iraq and Afghanistan.

If they had ever even tried to talk to them, there would have been a point, they have not.

[Comment] I think this position oversimplifies things. We must appreciate that the rhetoric of "no discussion with evil men/dictators etc" often belies the backroom discussions that go on all the time.

[Response] If there are backroom discussions why does the front room rhetoric resound with increasing animosity and frosty relations?

The fact is America is selective about the so-called evil men/dictators that it deals with; there is no balance in their projection of foreign influence that it now makes them literally ineffective in many places.

Be it Israel, Lebanon, Sudan and Zimbabwe, them not condemning the military coup in Venezuela, aligning with the military dictatorship in Pakistan, ignoring the democratic mandate of the Hamas, fostering Nuclear proliferation in India and condemning it in Iran with is under threat from two sides of its territory.

The oversimplification as it appears is primarily a commonsense diplomatic stance that the Bush administration find too simple to adopt.

[Comment] The lack of overt high level contact in the full glare of the cameras does not necessarily mean the absence of all contact. Anyway a lot of people, for example, criticised the US for not talking to Syria and conveniently forgot the existence of a US embassy in Damascus.

[Response] Yes, and they also have an Embassy building in Iran, what is the point of having the building without a full-fledged ambassador? Having office administrators handle serious diplomatic issues is hardly the way to deal with countries that could seriously impact your safety in proximity countries and allies.

[Comment] You forget that the deal Madeline Albright negotiated with the North Koreans was badly defaulted on by the North Korean government.

[Response] Indeed, it was flawed but North Korea did not get nuclear during the Clinton era and if Bush had tried to correct the flaws and not unfortunately hurt the sensibilities of the “dwarfish” leader, we probably would not be where we are at now.

At least we had inspectors in North Korea and were able to monitor and report what they were doing, we no more have that advantage apart from satellite pictures and measuring seismic activity after the event.

[Comment] You forget that Rwanda happened under Clintons watch

[Response] Agreed, it did, but should the lessons of “never again” not now apply to Darfur? Should the Bush regime now try to outdo the Clinton administration in being ineffective in the face of great human injustice considering they are the only ones who have called Darfur - a genocide.

[Comment] You forget that Somalia happened under Clinton’s watch

[Response] And now, it is happening again, with the Islamic “overthrow” of a UN supported government which is getting compared with the Taleban.

[Comment] You forget that the first attack on the WTC was under Clinton’s watch

[Response] And the blind sheik implicated as the instigator of that activity is in prison, they are even not prosecuting his lawyer for treason-type offences.

The people responsible for WTC II or 9/11 still send us home videos five years after and we have lost more lives in Iraq and Afghanistan – only yesterday, we were receiving messages from Mullah Omar.

[Comment] You forget that Al Qaeda was formed under Clinton’s watch

[Response] This is disingenuous, yes; it was formed under Clinton’s watch but instigated in the aftermath of Gulf War I [an earlier Bush era, I would think] when America was seen to occupy the Islamic Holy Lands and propping up Middle East regimes that do not attend to the clamour of their peoples.

[Comment] You forget that the planning for 911 started under Clinton’s watch

[Response] And what did Condi do with the dossier she was handed about the Al Qaeda threat – I think the 911 Commission drew a good few conclusions about the new regime’s inactivity.

You forget that the attacks on the USS Cole, the US Kenyan and Tanzanian embassies were under Clinton’s watch. You forget that Afghanistan fell to the Taliban under Clinton’s watch. You forget that Clinton never formally made the existence of a Palestinian State US Policy.

[Response] Considering the way the Republicans highlight that there has been no other attack on US soil since 911, I could commend the Clinton administration for keeping their guard up after WTC I that Al Qaeda had to find soft targets elsewhere – hence, the USS Cole and the African embassy disasters.

Afghanistan became a vacuum of power once the Russians were driven out, I would suppose the Taleban represented a form of peace after 20 years of war and as they grew more unacceptable they would have remained in power if they had handed over Osama bin Laden – but that was a difficult decision for them that they offered to send him to a neutral country.

They had just fought along side their Muslim brother to liberate their country from the Russians; they probably had a blood oath with Osama never to deliver him to anyone which is why they risked their demise than garner opprobrium.

Now that the Bush administration have created a terrorist haven in Iraq, Americans are still getting killed almost everyday only that they are being killed in Iraq. That seems to be great comfort to your public.

I see two handshakes in the Middle-East moving towards peace which was progressing and could have been improved upon rather than being left dormant till the Bush administration was embarrassed into saying something radical and where is the progress still?

Yasser Arafat shaking the hand of Yitzhak Rabin on the White House lawn and Jordan through King Hussein recognising Israel, all happening under Clinton’s watch – they created the forum to talk, that other Arab states at least now recognise the right for Israel to exist.

However, the attitude to the democratically elected Hamas who won election on a platform of not recognising Israel such that sanctions are about to make that government collapse helps feed the rhetoric that questions the legitimacy of Israel from Iran.

We have never had a more strident Iran and this is one of the countries that the US would have to talk to directly and respectfully, as well as Syria if they are going to extricate themselves from Iraq – Mr Bush is waking up to this reality.

[Comment] The list goes on - I cite these examples not to detract from Clintons legacy but to make the point that its no use idealising the Clinton era and that the context and circumstances of the two presidencies are significantly different.

[Response] You are not doubt right, we can all do convenient lists depending on what part of the political spectrum we are on, but rather than build on the Clinton legacy to forward the fledgling deals or plans that were in place, they were all discarded for a neo-conservative doctrine that put Bush at variance with the world before 911 and then Bush squandered the post-911 goodwill on the Iraqi escapade just as Americans are governed through fear into what is no less a police state.

[Comment] In fact, there is a growing consensus amongst Historians that the Clinton presidency was an inconsequential one as far as global events go.

[Response] I think we need a need a bit more time to see where history would place Clinton and Bush, there is no doubt that Bush has his place in history, how he would be judged would be revealing to all concerned before revisionists have a field day.

Besides, my blog has broached many of the issues I have covered in here concerning American foreign policy and its ineffectiveness – Bush may be able to do a better job, if he has the will to do better is debatable.

References

Iraqi Tags Iran Tags Bush Tags Israeli Tags

Many U-turns required

Can you pull back?

It would appear the Bush Cabinet is in the process of trying to negotiate the U-turn of an Australian wagon train in a cul-de-sac on Iraqi strategy, we can only wait and see what becomes of the surrounding buildings and lawns as people are left askance at the stupidity of getting into the cul-de-sac first place.

As the debate goes on about what to do about Iraq ranging from sating the course to pulling out, one fundamental we seem to be forgetting is that the US and Britain opened this Pandora’s Box and there is no easy way to shut it back up tight.

The fact is, Iraq was like a grenade with the pin ready for pulling out, Saddam Hussein for all his evils kept that powder keg from exploding – very much like how Josip Tito kept the Yugoslavia bottled up till he died and the whole place became a conflagration of ethnic conflicts.

Much as many would like America to cut and run, the fact is there is a lurking ethical complex that requires that the mess after Saddam be becalmed to some pre-invasion quality of peace, something that I would think impossible in the foreseeable future.

Squandering the Clinton legacy

Then for all that can be said about the Clinton administration, I must highlight a few seminal points, they at least got the Israelis and Palestinians talking, the highpoint which was that handshake between Rabin and Arafat on the White House lawn.

With North Korea, Madeleine Albright did do to Pyongyang and there was a possibility that Clinton could have visited – however, more striking is that North Korea did not become nuclear on Clinton’s watch.

In fact, with Carter and Clinton, the Democrats did much more with the symbolism of getting the Arabs and Israelis to talk to each other than the Republicans have in 30 years.

Bad diplomacy

In the six years of Mr. Bush’s tenure, what we have gained is a consuming obstreperousness to refuse to talk in a bilateral relationship with Iran, North Korea, Syria, Hezbollah or Hamas as well as Iraq before the war.

This really cannot go on; it does not help the cause for diplomacy if there is no dialogue and hiding behind the Europe initiative with Iran or the 6-party talks about North Korea does not cut the muster.

In the end, it leaves US with second-hand information that lets Condoleezza Rice say that she does not believe the promises given to China by North Korea are as iron-cast as they are supposed to be.

Well, at least China sent someone to Pyongyang to hear from them; Europe and Russia have send people to Teheran, the UN Secretary General has been to Damascus and Teheran too, America has just been skirting the issue rather than getting stuck into really seeking world peace.

I am not hot on Rice at all

At this juncture, I have come to the conclusion that Condoleezza Rice, though a highly accomplished scholar in the dynamics that exemplified the cold war is a lightweight in the New World Order – she is no Henry Kissinger (that would be to besmirch him, though in these present times he could be indicted for a good number of civil rights and human rights misdemeanours), nor is she a James Baker III who is now co-heading a group to rethinking the American Iraqi strategy – probably because the administration has run out of ideas and she is no Madeleine Albright, at least she got the President to do something – Yugoslavia for example, though she denies influencing the situation.

Where America could have been the impartial arbiter with the respect due to a superpower they have taken sides and lost the ability to leverage resources and power that they have become bit-players in areas where they should be prime-movers.

No hope for resolution

With this approach to global issues, not only will North Korea conduct a few more tests, they would manufacture nuclear warheads, Iran definitely would develop a nuclear weapon just to show they can, the nuclear race would hot up with other countries in the Far East and the Middle East considering their options.

So, somehow, this leads to a new Republican National Convention political advertisement which plays on the fears of Americans with the premise that they might suffer a nuclear attack brought on by terrorists.

Well, the fear factor did work in 2004, I would hope it would be a damp squib in this year’s mid-term elections, because, the whole Bush administration attitude to terrorism with their untrammeled control of the Congress has lead to a more unsafe world – change is required and checks are needed – the Congress in the hands of the Democrats is the only alternative between the partisan evils we have to contend with.

As Clinton once surmised, we have the choice to choose between someone exciting our fears or lifting our hopes, this terrorist message is now old hat.

References

The Fear Factor video

An opportunity to make friends - with Syria

Syria, the pummelled

Syria for a while had become the poster child for what is wrong and unsettling about the Middle-East from the American perspective.

Having been implicated in the gruesome and explosive assassination of the ex-Prime Minister Rafik Hariri leading to the reluctant but coerced withdrawal of Syria from Lebanon, then their support for Hezbollah and the brick bats they received with Iran regarding Hezbollah’s attack of Israel, they have every right to be indifferent about American issues.

Kofi Annan, the UN Secretary-General visited Syria recently and extracted a cooperation where Syria would impose an arms embargo on its Hezbollah ally and even allow troops to patrol their border with Lebanon – my point – it is good to talk.

Syria, the brave

So, some cack-handed terrorists poorly executed a plan to bomb the US Embassy in Damascus – Yes, the US is accorded diplomatic recognition in Syria though with no one at ambassadorial level, despite what they have to endure from America – the Syrian security personnel spirited foiled the attack in which one of their number was killed.

Ironically, this “supporter of terrorism”, be it the insurgency in Iraq or the Hezbollah in Lebanon is a fighter of terrorism on its own land even if it pertains to the endangerment of life and property of it chief accuser, America.

America could not but acknowledge with grudging gratitude Syria’s efforts through Condoleezza Rice though that was soured with another comment from the White House that Syria should play a more constructive role in the war against terrorism – take a deep breath of despair.

To Teheran with love

Then switch to Teheran and it is Assyrian/Persian hugs and kisses between Ahmadinejad and Al-Maliki, the Iranian President and the Iraqi Prime Minister respectively.

The Great Satan (America) would be completed miffed with this visit to a possible abode of three – Iran in the Axis-of-Evil.

Despite all the American views about Iran stirring up the Shiite insurgency in Iraq, Iran has offered to cooperate in ensuring Iraq security and stability along with other extensive cooperation deals on oil exploration and export.

With all the American lives being lost in Iraq, the government does have to chart its own way and they are showing that regional cooperation matters regardless of who America counts as friend or foe.

As far as the Middle-East is concerned, Iran and Syria after the Hezbollah skirmish in Israel are the new brokers for regional hegemony in that region with Israel now being exposed as more vulnerable than they thought they were.

Talk and communicate

It is really time to start talking rather that flinging hateful words and vitriol from the White House and State Department like intercontinental precision ballistic missiles.

It is time to try and become friends and talk though your differences, this whole idea of the guarded self-importance of the President of America precluding him from meeting with other people just in case he offers them clout, recognition or legitimacy is self-conceited to the extreme.

It would do well to engage in high-level talks according each other a modicum of respect and courtesy; that said, it is not a team that should include John Bolton even under sedation.

A poker hand of unintended consequences

A snowflake fascination

I have ranted, riled and disparaged with vehemence the fight-on-till-victor-and-vanquished policy that has spewed forth from Rice, Bush and Blair, but wait a minute; it appears we might be reaching a case of seriously unintended consequences.

Just like what would happen when you shake that fascinating Christmas snowflake glass ball, you deliberately and violently shake it, creating a chaos of flakes, then set it down and watch the snow settle, I see the same in this instance.

You cannot determine where the flakes would fall, though we assume it falls evenly on the Christmas landscape, it is probably a more sophisticated science than the simplicity belies.

It is a resolutions rat-race

So, back at the Middle-East where elaborate but historically futile plans are being put across in trying to introduce a new UN Resolution to bring about a ceasefire and the deployment of a multi-national peace-keeping force in the South of Lebanon.

We really should stop this circus of using resolutions to enforce or chase other resolutions and concentrate on the context that shaped the original ones and forcefully implement them.

Once again, the UN Security Council Resolution 1559 appears to be the gold-standard of implementing a ceasefire. That is fine, now, let us be honest, about implementing the totality of that resolution which is first really about Israel before it is about Lebanon.

Give back first

The first part refers to Lebanon having complete sovereignty over its territory, and then gradually exercising democratically managed military authority over their entire.

The bitter pill in this situation is Shebaa Farms; it is occupied Lebanese territory which Israel contends belongs to Syria as part of their annexation of Golan Heights in 1967.

That is beside the point, between Syria and Lebanon, they have agreed since 1964 that Shebaa Farms is Lebanese and Syria continues to abide by that 42-year old agreement. So, the Israeli withdrawal from Lebanese territory in 2000, regardless of technicalities people might proffer was incomplete. Simple!

The Lebanese plan for peace leading a ceasefire which Hezbollah acquiesces to, includes the return of Shebaa Farms for a viable and enduring ceasefire. Any, right-thinking person would consider that, just and fair, I would suppose.

Stop the occupations

It also means we move on from this idea of new occupations; like a peace-keeping force to assure security, it would be expensive, fraught, dangerous and ineffective if the Shebaa Farms issue is not conclusively resolved.

That Shebaa Farms issue, would help in ensuring that Resolution 1559 is fully implemented to include the disarming of Hezbollah.

Before you heave a sigh of relief, the issue of Shebaa Farms is somewhat inter-twined with Golan Heights in the Israeli psyche. So, why just relinquish one part of illegally annexed and nominally occupied territory?

We have already been sickened and amused by the microphone tête-à-tête between Bush and Blair about Syria telling Hezbollah to stop all this shit going on in Lebanon.

Syria says

Well, Syria has given us the key to all this shit-stopping – the occupation of Arab lands. That would primarily be Shebaa Farms and Golan Heights, these fuel the frenetic activities of Hezbollah in that area, the Palestinian settlement is a distant allusion in this matter.

So, once again, the move is Israel’s – in accordance with UN Resolution 497, conveniently forgotten and dormant since it was unanimously passed in 1981; the return of Golan Heights to the rightful owner – Syria.

In two pre-existing resolutions we have the recognition and implementation of a ceasefire from the current hostilities; the end of Hezbollah’s militancy, such that they can be fully subsumed in Lebanese politics.

The child looks different

That, I submit is the unintended consequence of the “new Middle-East” as alluded to by Condoleezza Rice – the birth pangs would in the end bring forth a child in no likeness to the expected baby.

The bigger picture is more unsavoury for the West than it seems, because the price for peace exerts a serious climb-down from Israel in terms of its legacy of occupied Arab lands, and it also indicates that Western appeasement has continually allowed Israel to act with impunity when they should be adhering to their international obligations.

The Israeli protestations regarding Syria and Lebanon over the years would definitely become a shrill-sounding discomfort to all well-meaning people.

A poker hand bitter lesson in expected outcomes

Better still, if this becomes the final result of this 3-week war, you will have to give it to Hezbollah as they would have deftly out-manoeuvred all those crocodile-tear diplomatic efforts to bring about a just settlement for their struggles.

The other negotiations about the release of prisoners are just minutiae.

America, Britain and Israel, turned this issue into a game of poker thinking they had the best hands, methinks, Hezbollah only started with a Jack and might clear the pot with a Royal Flush – such is the life of gamblers.

References

A prediction of this war

US envoy foresees 'hard decision'

The Israeli conflict blog archive

Precision-guided resolutions that miss the target

Precision-guided and hitting the wrong target?

I hear the vehement protestations of Israel that the UN post in Southern Lebanon was not deliberately targeted.

That, indeed might be true, at least, the US Ambassador in the UN – John Bolton, exhorts us to take their word for it.

However, it begs the question how after all the communications with the Israeli army as that post came under sustained attack for hours, the attacks were not ceased to ensure the safety of the possibly rather terrified unarmed observers.

Then, we have the second unexplained issue, could a precision-guided missile have deviated from a purposed target to hit the post?

No, further questions …

The UN SC Resolution 1559

Agreed, Condi, we cannot return to status quo ante, that is fine, but let us look at the issue here.

The said United Nations Security Council Resolution 1559 has the following basic premises

· Calling upon Lebanon to establish its sovereignty over all of its land

· Calling upon Syria to end their military presence in Lebanon by withdrawing its forces and to cease intervening in internal Lebanese politics.

· The resolution also called on all Lebanese militias to disband.

It would appear Lebanon may not have been able to establish complete sovereignty over its own land. We are lead to believe that Israel completely withdrew from Lebanon six years ago, however, that might not entirely be true.

There is still a disputed region occupied by Israel and it given voice to the reason why Hezbollah has still maintained a military presence in the south of Lebanon. This place is the Shebaa Farms.

The Golan Heights which is also occupied Syrian territory annexed by Israel since 1967 and is the subject of United Nations Security Council Resolution 497 which requires Israel rescind that territory since 1981.

It is interesting how UN Resolutions are imposed with such ferocity against certain nations and ignored in entirety when it pertains to Israel fulfilling its obligations.

It must be said that unusually, Resolution 497 was unanimous and Resolution 1559 was a 9 to 6, in favour against abstentions.

In the end, the list of resolutions passed pertaining to Israel in which they have been condemned in half as many passed makes interesting reading about the lack of fairness in the implementation of international resolve.

Condolezza condoles with aid

Another American security quagmire

Having paid generous if not effusive and concerned lip service to the protection and support for the fragile and fledgling Lebanese democracy, which was still trying to garner the benefits of Syrian withdrawal and a new coalition government; America put its money far from where its mouth is yesterday.

There are only two other places where American dignitaries use Star Trek teleportation to make unannounced appearances to media excitement. Baghdad and Kabul, we can now add to that Beirut.

Having, in all those places allowed security to deteriorate to the state that a pre-notification might endanger the chief of the entourage and their retinue, surprise is the only strategy they have in pretending to becalm the storm they have nurtured.

Take more pain and have some pills

So, as Condolezza Rice make a surprise call on Beirut and the Prime Minister Fouad Siniora, all she could offer was deep concern, no ceasefire, more pain for now and the balm of American aid.

Many might think that was a deft diplomatic hand, hardly, it was a complete sell-out of an almost defenceless people against an onslaught carrying out a scheme that America hopes would weaken Hezbollah and humiliate both Syria and Iran.

The wrecking of Lebanon would bring respite to no one, especially Israel where losses are beginning to mount in what is becoming a war where the victory would at best be Pyrrhic.

More to the terrorist and their aims

The cost to each side can now only be recouped through some negotiated settlement and this would be a test of Dr Rice's ability to really cool the tensions in the Middle-East.

The inordinate quest to get rid of the "terrorism" without resolving the underlying Israeli-Palestinian problem is a fallacy and the sooner that is realised, the earlier we can stem the flow of blood and begin to work on bandaging the wounds.

As for Lebanon, they might have a friend in America, but they are in need of better friends - the lesson here is, indeed America is no friend in the time of need, when Israel features in the matter.

We can all agree that the Lebanese have not been impressed.

Peace eludes our time with appeasement

Peace eludes our time

Almost 78 years ago, Neville Chamberlain returned from Munich, a perfect English gentleman with a paper signed by Adolf Hilter which was a non-aggression pact securing peace in Europe [1]. We now view that supposed pact of peace as appeasement.

Today, amidst the propaganda and rhetoric that fuels the problems in Lebanon and Gaza as viewed from Israeli eyes, the blanket war on terror is appeased by everyone who can exert influence to halt these hostilities.

Looking like a military state

Each time I view my television an army spokesperson from democratic Israel comes on air, not speaking of their deployments and military activities but dabbling with the politics and wherefores of the conflict.

This is the type of speech one should hear from their political masters, but it appears the politics is becoming militarised and the military is becoming politicise, not of which bode well any democracy.

All weapons break the peace

Besides, we hear time and time again about the thousands of rockets the Hezbollah has, well, are we being naïve here? Israel has helicopter gun-ships, laser guided weaponry and nuclear weapons still undeclared.

Israel is seriously militarised that region in that quest for its defence, that has also lead to the regional militants arming themselves such that when Israel moves with aggression they and not just left with slings and stones to roll over and die.

The main part here is Israel really believes the Middle-East conflict can be resolved with their military might as world leaders pay lip service to the call for restraint and the lack of a determined purpose to see an end to that conflict.

The flytrap of implications

More and more we hear about Syria and Iran being called upon to rein in Hezbollah and Hamas, why they should escapes me.

In fact, I believe there is a more sinister ploy at hand; the need to find a way to implicate both Syria and Iran so that it can become a free-for-all battle royale, this would allow for nuclear sites in Iran to be targeted and destroyed and a possible assassination of the heads of government in those two countries.

The picture looks nasty and I fear for the ultimate effect of this situation.

It can now been argued that the Palestinians and Lebanese have already paid too high a price to return the soldiers unharmed and that is if the Israeli bombardments do not already crush the soldiers in some levelling escapade.

An eruption to wipe out hopes of peace

The world has looked on as the festering Middle-East conflict has ebbed and flowed like an indecisive volcano; it is about to rain lava and pyroclastic flows [2] that would engulf more than we have dared to imagine possible.

Back to the appeasement talk, rather than call to order the parties involved and get this situation to stop forthwith every influential nation has sent boats and evacuation teams to Lebanon to evacuate their citizens.

That, in my view is the license for this conflict to escalate, it says Israel can now maraud with impunity and as long as Hezbollah can still fire its rockets they would continue to descend like mega-hailstones on Haifa and beyond if they find the range.

If anyone should stop doing shit [3], it should start with the world leaders and their flimsy idea of sending in a Lebanon Peace Keeping Force [4] – how does that resolve issues on the ground today?

You need peace to keep it, and for now there is no peace but appeasement that is leading to the untenable, maybe when oil hits $100/barrel somebody might just feel the pinch enough to nip this Middle-East crisis in the bud.

References

[1] BBC ON THIS DAY | 30 | 1938: 'Peace for our time' - Chamberlain

[2] Pyroclastic flow

[3] BBC NEWS | Business | Bush lunch chat is caught on tape

[4] BBC NEWS | Middle East | UN calls for Lebanon peace force

Appeasement

Appeasement is a policy of accepting the imposed conditions of an aggressor in lieu of armed resistance. Since World War II, the term has gained a negative connotation, in politics and in general, of weakness, cowardice and self-deception. - Wikipedia

Forked-tongues fuelling the Middle-Eastern fires

Where is the Genesis of the Middle-East conflict?

I have just had my fill of the fork-tongued diatribe masquerading as diplomacy coming from all quarters regarding the situation in the Middle-East.

When the Hamas militants blew a hole in the wall bordering Gaza and Egypt to allow in Palestinians who had been stranded at the border for weeks the hapless but relieved people thanked Hezbollah for giving them the kind of reprieve that has given them respite.

Let us look at the issues on the ground, indeed militants including Hamas supported personnel have been firing rockets into Israel over the last few months, but all as a result of the occupied situation that the Palestinians find themselves in.

I am not trying to condone or support the struggle which gets conveniently branded as terrorism; there is a serious problem of land conflict in the Middle-East with Israelis and Palestinians in the middle of that muddle.

The fear of 1967 sees no end to this problem

If only we had leaders with conviction who addressed the matter head on and the see the results – Israel completely pulling back to the 1967 lines and Palestine a state within the bounds of what is left – this includes the Jerusalem question – that is the resolution of this conflict.

However, this bizarre occupation where Israel has at will be able to maraud through Palestinian lands with impunity could only exact guerrilla and terrorism type activity where the opponent cannot match the aggressor bullet for bullet and man for man. It would be naïve to expect another situation.

So, the raid on Israel that left 2 soldiers dead and one captured was hardly the Genesis of this situation, the inability for the west to accept the democratic will of the Palestinians allowed Hamas to remain recalcitrant about the right for Israel to exist.

I would contend that if Israel existed within its legitimate pre-1967 borders, Hamas and all other opponents of Israel would have not foot to stand on with their rhetoric.

Recognition should precede calls for influence

Once the West refused to acknowledge democracy because it yielded as it were the “wrong” result, it meant that Hamas would be a weakened and ineffective governing machine unable to command the influence to contain rogue elements.

Then that beach bombing to which we cannot conclusive assign blame still leaves many thinking Israel was responsible – the impunity of Israel had reached a point that certain elements rose to show that Israel in all its might is vulnerable.

Israel’s response to the capture of its soldier-recruit has not only been overly disproportionate, it lacks purpose or the kind of objective that can guarantee the return of the soldier and the earlier someone laments that fact than acquiesce to the hope that reason would prevail on the part kidnappers the better for the poor soldier’s life.

Brothers joined up in arms

But Israel has been unrelenting, so who else would be touched by that intemperate overrun of Palestine but the brothers in arms of Hamas who could divert Israel’s attention – The Hezbollah.

Just as anyone would eventually act if in the presence of great an injustice none of those who can sue for justice actively play the part of arbiter.

So, Hezbollah which happens to be located in Lebanon entered Israel, killed a number of soldiers and captured two as hostage. Where a negotiated settlement might have yielded better results, Israel raced into Lebanon bombing every important structure they could find and killing many innocents.

So, Hezbollah with better weaponry – Katyusha rocket not matching Israel’s manpower however, better than the Qassam rockets has rained disruption but not yet carnage on Israel and the blockade on Lebanese waters has resulted in at least 4 Israeli Navy men being overboard.

A UN debacle and a hissing Bush

So, at the UN as calls for calm and restraint echoed from the chambers the Ambassador to the UN from Israel had the temerity, gall and effrontery to address his Lebanese counterpart in terms that suggested he should in honesty and truth support Israel in the attack on his country which would free Lebanon from the influence of Hezbollah. The is the most warped diplomatic logic I have ever heard from that esteemed chamber and it is amazing that Syria was refused the opportunity to comment on the floor.

So, when Mr Bush from St Petersburg insists that the escalation of violence is primarily due to Hezbollah’s activities; it shows that the warped logic is not only disingenuous; it is dishonest, disgraceful and disheartening. There can be not solution in sight.

Why should Syria care?

Then calls are being made to Syria to rein in Hezbollah – Fat Chance! – Why should Syria get involved no matter what influence they can peddle – Syria’s Golan Heights has been annexed by Israel since 1967 and nothing is being done to resolve that issue conclusive.

However, if Lebanon continues to suffer an onslaught from Israel with the increasing loss of life and the destruction of infrastructure, it would not be long before fraternal ties with Syria have them pitched against Israel.

That would create a domino effect of Iran moving up to support Syria and then the Arab World leading to the Muslim World – simply the makings of World War III.

With Iraq and Afghanistan being simmering cauldrons of violence, the ramifications of Israeli belligerence are far from fully appreciated by all concern and that is scary to say the least.

Israel will never be big in this matter

There are no simple solutions to this matter, but it would take the magnanimity of Israel to do something dovish and materially ground-breaking to bring an impasse this deteriorating situation, unfortunately, Israel does not have the maturity to bring about that quality of statesmanship.

If, those soldiers eventually get returned alive, what a hefty price would have been paid for that and if anything has been lost from all this is the perspective – a quality of far-sighted leadership.

References

The Summary of the Middle-East Conflicts

US and Russia differ on Middle-East

Israel hits Lebanese Ports

Terrorism was a part of the struggle

Dummies guide to removing thorns

Doves know war seek peace

When the Iraqi War was being planned in the first term of the second Bush presidency, it was quite interesting to see that the only dove of the hawkish belligerents was a general who had been to war.

Blood, guts, men killing men, men maimed for life and unspeakable things that make flashbacks a horrific reminder of your survival - war marks men, in some cases it makes demons of men and it other it makes them that loudest advocates for peace and diplomacy.

Colin Powell exemplified that reality, the reality that war only brings peace when one side has been completely exhausted of the resource of men, weaponry and the will to continue.

Then we look at those who have made the decisions for war in this day and the worst that they have seen of the horrors of war is probably out deer hunting like Dick Cheney and he almost killed off a man in that setting.

Runners but not gunners

However, none, not Bush or Blair have seen real combat though politically they have the power to send young men into war to yield their lives to a cause that suffers continuous contentious debate.

Now, we have in the leadership of Israel a Prime Minister and Defence Minister who have no credible military experience setting alight the Middle East in the search for 3 soldiers - there is no telling where this would end but the picture looks nasty.

In both Gaza and Lebanon, the logic has been to blow up bridges and other transport channels like the airport runaway with the intent that this would stop the militants from moving the captured soldiers out of reach of the Israeli search missions - if any.

What price for release?

Unfortunately, I am yet to be convinced that these extreme military incursions which definitely would not have happened if the occupied areas had equivalent weaponry and manpower would yield the captured soldiers in any form than in body bags.

The fundamental that Israel has not understood is that their might in military and manpower terms might destroy live and property in Palestine and Lebanon, but that same might would not secure life, property or the peace for Israel.

The solution is a settlement agreed between the sides involved in this conflict and ut is a shame that America continually loses its moral muscle to bring this to bear by continuously blocking every sanction of Israel at the UN and still failing to exact the requirement of restraint on Israel.

Thorns and splinters need careful extrication

For the sake of analogy, Palestine is like a thorn in the flesh of Israel and the Hezbollah is like a big splinter, in both cases, no matter what power tools and equipment you have got, if you were a carpenter you would not use a hammer nor would you use a shovel if you were a farmer to extract that thorn or splinter.

Rather, it would gentle prising away of the skin with a sharp pin or a small pair of tweezers to extricate the foreign object without causing too much damage to the host body-part.

So also is this Israeli-Palestine issue, all the big guns and massive military firepower and incursions are like taking a hammer to the thorn, it can only cause greater hurt for Israel. The whole concept of defence has been stretched beyond reasonable acceptance to the context of a chess game where attack is considered the best form of defence.

Armageddon kindles as G8 filddles

It can be argued that the best defence for Israel is really within the borders the of same country limited to where those lines were in 1967 - that is a fact that needs to be looked at in a matured acceptance of the reality of the conflict.

If, in fact the bomb that landed in Haifa yesterday did not come from either Gaza or Lebanon, the next possibility is Syria, now, that would be the tinder box to Armageddon.

And what do we have, whilst the world burns, the G8 leaders are fiddling in St Petersburg. History has a way of repeating itself.

Blasting the hostage out of Gaza

Mighty Israel

Writing about Israel is a difficult task, every question you raise about their actions regardless of the objectivity gets you labelled as anti-Semitist on the one hand and an appeaser of terrorism on the other.

Having heard the news about the events in Gaza as Israel tries to obtain the freedom of the 19 year old conscript, whilst blowing up bridges might prevent the movement of the hostage, how does blowing up transformers help in the resolution of this conflict.

Then flying over the summer palace of the Syrian President looks like a military-political command structure run amok.

The unequal matching of the sticks and staves of Palestinians to the high-tech weaponry of the Israelites leaves one at a point of conflicts of faith and fairness.

The faith from the perspective of evangelical or devout Christians commands a stubborn adherence to blessing Israel regardless of what they do and the fairness leaves one in empathy for the Palestinians and their plight in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

That faith element precludes America from supporting any resolution against Israel; it is like an unwritten law in the American polity that remains unbroken.

So, if as Israel amasses her tanks and razes down buildings and infrastructure they happen upon their gravely wounded quarry within the ruins of the damage they have caused; culpability would be difficult to apportion.

As might and obstreperousness lords it over wisdom and restraint with outrageous belligerence, man has no chance on this matter as people have advised care and restraint – Did God not say they are a stiff-necked people?

In the light of this and other issues, someone ask, was a soldier really kidnapped and taken hostage? If indeed they did, how did they do it? – the pictures tell a story I cannot better – take a look.

What Really Happened – The Gaza Tunnel Attack