Having a sense of fun at 45

Giving thanks a year on

I just read a blog I wrote exactly a year ago and realised that much had changed to that time and much more had changed today.

A new day of reckoning has come, one in which to offer gratitude as a year of long days, which had longer hours and the longest seconds, has past like it was just yesterday.

I write giving thanks to God, to my ever amazing neighbours, to the ever considerate medical staff, to my ever sustaining friends far and near, to my ever supporting family and relations and my ever expanding network of colleagues, acquaintances and what do you call that Internet-based list of the many people who have given, commented, elicited and sometimes abused me on my blogs, Facebook or Twitter?

You all gave me strength, helped my will to live, given me scope to express the joy of living and much more that words fail me in expressing.

An imp colouring my beard

And to what do we owe this day of thankfulness than to the fact that another bleak winter day like the one in 1965 has come again and lo and behold, hardly in a manger and not expecting wise men because it is too foggy to see a guiding star, the boy is 45.

I allowed myself to go unshaven the other day and noticed in my sleep someone had been colouring each strand of hair of my growing beard grey, mischievous imp, wait till I catch him.

I have moved into that bracket of age-based surveys that allow you to tick the box 45-54, I am going to enjoy it as I contact those many others I share this day with, Rachel, Rosalie, Jan and not forgetting Marie of fond and blessed memory.

On this day

Many things have happened on this day as far back as history can record the year of four Roman emperors, the fourth being crowned on this day in 69 AD; and if you have ever been stuck in a crossword puzzle, the first was published in the New York World in 1913; Apollo 8 took off with the first manned mission to the moon in 1968 and sadly a bomb went off on a plane over Lockerbie in Scotland 1988.

An interesting day to be welcomed to earth and you can see what else happened on this day for your entertainment since many would be not be here to share my wonderful day with me for all sorts of reasons.

Thanks and I love you all, you all make my life such a wonderful living story. Did I just take a call from my mum at 2:51AM? Yes, we are that peculiar and have fun too.

Nigeria: NaijaLeaks that did not make the headlines

Lost influence despite historical ties

Back to the bottom of the pot scrapes of WikiLeaks on Nigeria, the NaijaLeaks; the ones that did not make the headlines.

In February 2009, a cable was dispatched with concerns about Her Majesty’s Government (HMG) lack of clear policy with regards to Nigeria; this was specified by “citing Nigeria’s significant financial links to the UK, large Diaspora community, and energy potential.” Cable Referenced.

Apparently, with the turmoil in the Niger Delta and issues of corruption it was suggested that the HMG’s capacity for political analysis was both “weak and shallow”.

Now, considering the historical ties between Britain and Nigeria, it is interesting that the Americans appear to have more of an insight into happenings in Nigeria and have a better intelligence gathering network embedded in the country.

Terrorist threats in Nigeria

There have been quite a number of religious sectarian attacks and violence in Nigeria, in June 2009, one cable suggests plans for a massive terrorist attack as the text below shows.

¶26. (S//NF) Nigeria - Extremists believed to be planning a massive terrorist attack: (S//REL TO USA, FVEY) Tearline states, "Unspecified extremist groups, suspected to be operating in concert with Nigerian Shi'ites, Salafiya, or Muhammad Yusuf's Nigerian Taliban are reportedly planning to launch a massive surprise attack on some piece of critical infrastructure or against high-profile targets within Nigeria.

Probable targets of this attack include top Nigerian Government officials or security agents. Members of the general public, who might be opposed to the attackers' doctrines, were also believed to be possible targets. This planned attack is reportedly aimed at sparking sectarian clashes across Nigeria."

¶27. (S//NF) DS/TIA/ITA cannot immediately corroborate the current threat with additional intelligence. While no connection can be made between this threat and previous reports, DS/TIA/ITA is concerned about recent activity surrounding extremists associated with the Nigerian Taliban. Cable Referenced.

It goes on to suggest that a Chadian terrorist might be involved and a number of speculative and circumstantial opinions are proffered which is exposed that the time could have had dire consequences for volatile regions under sectarian tensions as well as created diplomatic concerns with Nigerian-Chadian relations.

The Shi’ite connection also links up with the concern about Iranian influence in Nigeria, most especially with news about arms imports from Iran. [1]

Jobs for life for Nigerians

However, it makes such interesting reading that for all the hard and sweaty jobs some Nigerian people rise up for in the early mornings in Europe and America others are living large in Arabian opulence where the external façade of Wahhabist restraint and fundamentalism gives way to a secret debauched and wild partying crowd of sheiks up to unspeakable conduct.

One cable says, It is common practice for Saudi princes to grow up with hired bodyguards from Nigeria or other African nations who are of similar age and who remain with the prince well into adulthood. They are called “khawi,” derived from the Arabic word “akh,” meaning “brother.” The lifetime spent together creates an intense bond of loyalty. Cable Referenced

A lifetime together almost makes one wonder about the supposed closeness and that terrifyingly nasty case of servant abuse that was in the courts in the UK where a Saudi prince murdered his aide [2] who was believed to be a sexual slave.

The darker tanned Bandar Abdulaziz was probably of African origin and though he did not look like bodyguard material, history of Arab being involved in African slave trade and the contemporary situation of hiring them as sexual pleasure units, bodyguards or servants seems to be corroborated by the cable.

I have had offers to work in the Arabian peninsula and really, I have never been fully persuaded especially if the job for life was terminated with a homicide.

Sources

[1] BBC News - Iranian man charged in Nigeria over arms shipment

[2] Saudi prince guilty of servant's murder | UK news | The Guardian

No combs to dress the hair on fire

A snapshot of celebrity

It would be remiss of me not to offer an opinion if not a form of social commentary on the cult of celebrity and the prisoners of that wave of image embellishment or rather pretentious charity.

The news article [1] offers a bit of detail but the 50 seconds of video that accompanies speaks a world about what it shows and it is a microcosm of a glittering and almost tantalising spectacle one that is as attractive as it is debilitating and dangerous.

Mr Sean Combs [2], known as many variations from Puff Daddy to P. Diddy that polite society is better served by referring to his birth name and refuse to be carried away with the razzmatazz is a very successful man and he was in New York to promote the launch of his new album, Last Train To Paris.

Having hired the pent house suite of a posh hotel as hip-hop hedonism allows, the renowned of that genre and ilk had gathered there for a smoke-filled party with an American actor/comedian Kevin Hart [3] apparently compering.

At the hot tub

In the video, Kevin Hart sets the scene; they are nowhere more respectable than at the hot tub fishing as it were for what might be left to your imagination, but there is a “model” sat in a bubble and rose petal filled bath surrounded by lit candles.

We are made to understand that party is female-friendly, I suppose that means there are scantily clad ladies all around that place titillating the men and getting their adrenaline and testosterone levels running high with the scent of wanton debauchery or smell of sex probably created by one of Mr. Combs’ piss-water perfumes.

Kevin Hart might even jump into the bath tub probably to have a wash, surely, as a married father of two children, it is unlikely that it is his wife that would be scrubbing his back at the London as he liberally introduces other "niggers", a word fashionable amongst that clique but abominable to other races.

All hair on fire

I will leave the issue of the objectification of women, the lack of respect for their person, their use for the elevation of the animal instinct towards the Neanderthal man and their function as pheromone secretion catalysts on hedonist gatherings to others to address.

However, as we ogled the lady in the bath whose poise shifted to some rather more provocative pose, her hair, probably conditioned with non-flame retardant chemical caught fire, it took a while for her to notice what was happening and the guests might have been too absorbed in ambience to have the presence of mind to react appropriately.

Then suddenly, the flame caught on and she ducked into the water to quench the flames but the seconds that show that event left me more than just concerned. It did not appear that anyone went to her aid and when Kevin Hart realised what was going on, he was more particular about that event not being caught on camera than attending to the unfortunate lady. They all found it funny, they really did.

Forget chivalry

I can only wonder who that lady was, how she got that job, how burnt she got, what care and comfort she received and where she is now.

Keith Hart’s reaction left much to be desired, but then if we ever expected and chivalry in such a setting, we must have forgotten that ostentation does not necessarily breed class and having a huge profile like this with all the apparently stage-managed publicity and photo opportunities does not reveal the real sense of compassion or humanity the principals might have.

Smudging the image

In this very short episode, Mr Combs could not understand why fire-fighters were called, which would have been the right thing to do including getting a first-aid crew on site with the possibility of having the lady taken to hospital for observation and possible treatment.

Mr Combs was having a launch party and such a distraction could not be allowed to get in the way of a night of revelry, the music played on, everything was under control but the inability to prevent the release of this video and the lady is probably history.

We, the cultists of celebrity

That is the world of today’s celebrity, it is about image and the management of it, presenting a pretentious façade to the world of being rich and successful with foundations helping the unfortunate wherever they might be but not when met with the immediacy of helping a damsel in distress.

These are our role models, our motivational speakers, our figures of emulation and the people we aspire to become; people who shirk responsibility, lack character, denigrate women, men without integrity but money talks and as long as everyone is having a nice time, the lady was at best an annoyance, woe betide her, she was for the record the collateral damage of keeping that image pristine.

The video reveals the underbelly of the odious and the reprehensible and just about the worst of that sub-culture, the majority might however not be persuaded to refuse to patronise such people and their stock in trade because we are prisoners of the cult of celebrity, slaves to the pretentious icon and already impervious to basic human values. I lament.

The longer version of that event appears here [4], you can make up your mind about it, but I did not find it funny, at all.

Sources

[1] Diddy-Dirty Money's: Model's hair catches fire at album release party in LA | Mail Online

[2] Sean Combs - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

[3] Kevin Hart (actor) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

[4] YouTube - Girl Hair Catches Fire on Diddy's Dirty Money Ustream Party + Reenactment

My body will not suffer

From trouble to resolution

Another long day at work, it started at 7:00AM, a simple change that should have ended in 2 hours had us clutching at straws well after 3:00PM.

Whilst we did not have full knowledge of the multi-faceted system, it was quite difficult to guide the troubleshooting systematically.

A lot of people are a lot more computer savvy than I am, I concede that but sometimes the background from which you have come into Information Technology can be of interesting significance.

Very few people I know have come from an engineering background and there is a particular discipline and rigour that is lacking from other fields in terms of deduction, analysis, building and dismantling components of systems, abstraction and other nuanced thought processes about inputs and expected outputs at different stages.

It is almost a frustrating exercise in trying to align the thinking and analysis but I have learnt to adapt, interject the conversation with pointers that might well be breakpoints somehow the picture begins to take shape and hopefully begin to make progress, the key to keeping it moving is keeping it calm and collected.

Anyway, in the end, we deduced where the problem was and were soon close to resolution.

No intrusive procedures

As the day grew to a close the call I was expecting arrived, my treatment advisor called to inform me that after conferences between my medical consultant, the neurologist, the laboratory and the they review of the results, the invasive procedure will not be required.

Treatment commences tomorrow morning and I can rest easy that I do not have to challenge the preponderance of medical opinion just because I asked that they review their original conclusions.

It was a nerve-racking experience for me but I think I had the right premise, the consideration that I am the one most affected by the decisions made, it is my body; researching the condition and the available options to get clued in about what the suggestions are and engaging the medical personnel to review the seemingly unfavourable option for a more comfortable situation.

I am happy about that. Phew!

I have a Christmas tree

It has arrived

Give me time and the pictures would arrive soon, there are baubles to buys and fairies to mount, mount atop the tree, I meant.

I went downstairs to the forecourt of my apartment block and got me a potted Christmas tree in memory of my dear Chris.

There wasn’t much time for negotiations, it looked good enough and in the mid-price range so I decided to get it.

Being quite a heavy thing the florist offered to deliver it for a price, surely not for taking it to the lift and putting it in my hallway. I just live upstairs I said and then offered to deliver it free walking with me to my apartment.

Unlike the other trees on offer with contraptions and awkward stands, I can water my tree and care for until I go away probably after Christmas.

Never fail to do the things you could have done and enjoyed together that you are left to do those things just in memory of what could have been.

Seize the day

It worked for them

I rarely read motivational books, I have always felt they were like snake oil remedies, people who might have found ways of making life work for thems who suddenly think their shoes will fit everyone else who tries them out and then readers would begin to walk the paths of success their motivational book mentors have charted.

Again, I have always been amused by amulet peddlers who have love potions, lucky charms, money spinning wheels and whatever incredible schemes, you never see them in contagious love, they are always down on their luck and if they could spin money the only positive end of that should be doling it out to charity to lift the ones who lack rather than looking for new ways to swindle the gullible.

Seize the day

In ways, I have charted my own way, learnt my own lessons, experienced my own life to the full and whatever regrets I have; they have become part of my own little narrative that confers a sense of uniqueness on my own tale.

Maybe, I heard this somewhere before, it might have come from the book of Proverbs something about seizing the day, the refusal to allow others create your agenda without consulting with you first and then trying to impose the situation on you.

Hear me out again

This morning I called my treatment advisor and remonstrated strongly about the course of treatment that had been left in limbo yesterday, the serology tests and results are indicative when compared to research findings that the intrusive procedure might not be necessary and an aggressive course of treatment should be commenced.

She probably did not understand me or comprehend my argument and premise the first time so she called again to fully understand what I was saying.

My medical history puts me in an at risk category, the less aggressive form of treatment could result in treatment failure that we might have to review in a year’s time when we could by the preponderance of statistical information of such situations address the matter with the accepted course of treatment that guarantees treatment success within 6 weeks.

It was now left to her to discuss this with my medical consultant and agree a comfortable set of choices I can subject myself to.

With me or no way

Meanwhile, the neurological department called and offered me two time slots demanding I attend tomorrow morning. Now, hardly 30 minutes before, I had been asked to standby for a major change taking place at work to allow for a colleague to attend hospital, I had agreed to that arrangement, I could not renege on that setup to the inconvenience of that carefully arranged schedule.

My work life gives me a sense of purpose just as my medical requirements allow for me to have the ability to fulfil my obligations – the medical condition is not life threatening but it needs attention, however, not of the urgency being urged on me.

The conversation with the neurology department went along the lines of the neurologist can only see me tomorrow and so I had to make the time to which I retorted, the neurologist should first consult me and we align our schedules to the convenience of both parties.

I was just not available

They were adamant but then if the patient is not available it would be interesting if they would send the police to come and get me; now that would be comical to the extreme; they just could not see me tomorrow and I made that quite clear – go back to the neurologist and let us plan a date for next week. My hospital is not a court, they should check my availability first.

They are probably not used to patients talking back, this patient is patient but not supine and it so transpired that they allowed themselves to appreciate my situation and we would now meet at 10:00AM on Monday morning, in fact, I was first asked to choose any time slot in the whole of next week but I deferred to their making that choice and I can make the necessary adjustments to my calendar.

First, it is my body

How is that for consideration, respect, resolution and basically not allowing yourself to be pushed over?

My medical consultant now has to be speak to a good few people and we just have to wait and see if I have to challenge the concert of medical opinion singing from the same sheet, knowing what is best for me despite the fact that it is first my body before it becomes a medical curiosity and if that is my last fight, it would have been well fought.

Nigeria: Naijaleaks and the importance of Nigeria

Searching the leaks

With the headlines items gone and the choice bits taken, let us now pick up the remnants of the Nigerian WikiLeaks cables which are now termed NaijaLeaks and hear the background chatter behind the deafening noise.

With the WikiLeaks search tool which came to me through some indirect reference in my Twitter feed it was only right to search for what else contained Nigeria but was not of breaking news media pervasiveness but still a matter of conversation.

First of all you can find the WikiLeaks search facility at Leak Search and I thank @nubiancheetah for reTweeting @rafiq with the indirect link.

Nigeria is the most important in Africa

Looking at what Nigeria represents, US Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Johnnie Carson was in Nigeria with a message and on a fact-finding mission which included meeting with International Oil Companies (IOCs).

In attendance were the now legendary Ann Pickard of Shell, representatives from Chevron, Exxon Mobil, Schlumberger, Hercules, the American Business council and consulate staff, from what I can see of the names highlighted in the cable, there were at least two Nigerians in that meeting too.

He had this to say, Nigeria is the most important country in Africa for the United States due to: the size of its population; presence of hydro-carbons; peace keeping role in ECOWAS, its seat on the United Nations Security Council; along with the strength and size of its financial markets. Nigeria has enormous potential and is the seventh largest Muslim country in the world with an Islamic population that will eclipse Egypt by 2015. Having no United States presence in Northern Nigeria is akin to having no presence in Egypt and is why the United States is considering opening a Consulate in Kano.

Despite what we know of Nigeria, these seem to be rather profound statements about Nigeria which places it in prominence above both Egypt and South Africa in terms of importance to the United States in Africa.

The failings and the impasse in leadership notwithstanding, one can say those terms of reference have also been mentioned in order of importance, population, oil, regional clout, UN presence, markets and religion, especially the Islamic influence.

The failure of our democratic systems

What is alarming is the suggestion that only 10% of Nigerians saw a ballot ticket in 2007, that is damning as it is worrisome and I hope that the elections in 2011 do aim to have a healthy majority exercise their right to vote and have their votes counted declaring the wishes of the people.

The managers of the election should aim for 70% or better and not just a slight improvement on the performance of 2007, but with the theft of registration machines from the international airport last week, one worries about how much success can be expected.

The assertion that Lagos is better than Cape Town and the most important in the Nigerian federal system is interesting, it is the commercial capital of Nigeria with the administrative capital in Abuja and though it is less salubrious compared to Cape Town, it is where things are happening and changing.

Three state governors in the south had a favourable mention for their work, development and governance and they were those of Akwa Ibom - Godswill Akpabio, Rivers - Chibulke Amaechi and Edo - Adams Oshiomhole, it is interesting that despite the seeming infrastructural improvements in Lagos State the governor does not get a mention.

Charting the course to the right future

Fundamentally, the view of the IOCs is that the Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB) is more about taking control and extracting more value for Nigeria’s resources than providing solutions in terms of security, safety and development of the resources.

It appears the PIB is in three versions with no idea of what would eventually be adopted and more damning is the idea that Nigeria can manage its resources with spreadsheets and this apparently inadequate bill. – See cable for more views on the PIB.

Looking to the future the concern is the Nigeria has the possibility of developing into a Pakistan, the parallels are developing are of serious concern and though we are not a nuclear power, oil and religion are just as explosive and capable of creating an ungovernable entity.

To reach the standard of living of Indonesia by 2020, Nigeria needs to grow at 14% a year but that is predicated on credible democratic process, the development of independent and viable institutions that adhere to the rule of law and in my view an sustainable legislature which at the moment consumes 25% of the federal overhead. With Nigeria growing at only 5% and not taking account of the growth of Indonesia, there is much capacity and potential for improvement but the opportunities are yet to be tackled with the necessary fervour.

China for China makes US rethink Nigeria

As for other foreign influences in Nigeria, this is the view they have of China and the purveyors of Chinese investment in Africa better take note of the situation - The United States does not consider China a military, security or intelligence threat. China is a very aggressive and pernicious economic competitor with no morals. China is not in Africa for altruistic reasons. China is in Africa for China primarily. A secondary reason for China’s presence is to secure votes in the United Nations from African countries.

However, China’s influence is making the United States rethink its strategy in Africa and it is working all ends to ensure that it remains significant in the Nigeria polity by locating a presence in all parts of Nigeria, in the words of the Assistant Secretary - No presence means no access, which leads to no influence. Without influence you have nothing.

Whilst Secretary Carson did not get to sign off this cable, the conclusions are clear, Nigeria in Africa, its hydro-carbons, its potential and the religious element needs that the United States be fully engaged in Nigeria by all means possible and it comes above South Africa, Egypt, Indonesia and Pakistan in terms of if its important to the interests of the United States.

Source

Viewing cable 10LAGOS75, Assistant Secretary Carson meets oil companies in Lagos

The cable – with interesting portions highlighted.

Tuesday, 23 February 2010, 08:20

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 LAGOS 000075

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF/FO, AF/W, AF/RSA, AND INR/AA

AMEMBASSY YAOUNDE PASS TO AMEMBASSY MALABO

EO 12958 DECL: 2020/02/23

TAGS EPET, ENRG, ECON, PGOV, PREL, NI

SUBJECT: ASSISTANT SECRETARY CARSON MEETS OIL COMPANIES IN LAGOS

CLASSIFIED BY: Donna M. Blair, CG, State, ConGen Lagos; REASON: 1.4(B), (D)

SUMMARY

¶1. (C) Assistant Secretary (A/S) Carson met with members of the International Oil Companies (IOCs) on February 7. The A/S stressed the fact that Nigeria is the most important country in Africa for the United States. The IOC members noted that the A/S spoke mainly of issues in Northern Nigeria and did not dwell on Southern issues.

The Petroleum Industry Bill is discouraging future investment mostly in deep-water fields where most of the remaining oil in Nigeria lies. If Nigeria raised the price of gas to two-thirds of the world price, the IOC’s would be at each others throats trying to cut the price by a penny or two. Nigeria has the possibility of becoming the next Pakistan within 25 years. A/S Carson allayed the IOCs concerns of the United States’ relationship with China. END SUMMARY.

¶2. (C) Assistant Secretary Carson met with members of the international oil community in Lagos on February 7. In attendance were the following: Shell Senior Vice President’s Ann Pickard and Ian Craig; Shell Vice President Peter Robinson; Chevron Managing Director Andrew Fawthrop; Chevron Public Affairs Manager Femi Odumabo; Exxon Mobil Managing Director Mark Ward; Hercules Manager Coleman McDonough; Schlumberger Manager Supply Chain Service Demi Adenusi; American Business Council (ABC) President Dick Kramer; Special Assistant to the Assistant Secretary; Economic Officer; Maritime Affairs Officer; Marine AttachC) and, Consul General Lagos.

NIGERIA: MOST IMPORTANT COUNTRY IN AFRICA

¶3. (C) Fawthrop asked the A/S whether he was in Nigeria to deliver a message or was it more of a fact-finding trip? A/S Carson stated that he was in Nigeria for both reasons in that he wanted to listen and engage with Nigeria. Nigeria is the most important country in Africa for the United States due to: the size of its population; presence of hydro-carbons; peace keeping role in ECOWAS, especially in Sierra Leone and Liberia; its seat on the United Nations Security Council; along with the strength and size of its financial markets the A/S continued.

Nigeria has enormous potential and is the seventh largest Muslim country in the world with an Islamic population that will eclipse Egypt by 2015 according to A/S Carson. Having no United States presence in Northern Nigeria is akin to having no presence in Egypt and is why the United States is considering opening a Consulate in Kano.

¶4. (C) The United States is concerned about the power vacuum in Nigeria and the state of health of President Yar A’dua, per A/S Carson. The president is “very, very, very, very ill” and Nigerians are under illusions regarding the state of their president. “Nigeria cannot afford to implode or run aground.”

30 years of military government was not good. The United States expects a stable, legal, democratic, constitutionally-based government with no “military involvement, full stop” A/S Carson stated. It is important for the GON to do a better job this time around in regards to elections. Only ten percent of Nigerians saw a ballot ticket in the 2007 elections. If Nigeria brings credibility to its democratic processes, its economic processes will improve.

UNITED STATES PRESENCE IN SOUTHERN NIGERIA NEEDS ATTENTION

¶5. (C) Some places are more important than others within the Federal system of Nigeria and Lagos is one of the more important places, according to A/S Carson. Consulate General Lagos is bigger and more important than Embassies Benin and Togo together. Lagos is significantly more important than Cape Town even though the latter is 100 times better in terms of livability. The United States must be in Lagos in a significant way, A/S Carson declared.

¶6. (C) The statements of the A/S sounded wonderful from a Hausa viewpoint, but nothing was mentioned about Southern and Eastern Nigeria, Fawthrop pointed out. The A/S agreed that Fawthrop was correct. The United States is underrepresented diplomatically, economically, commercially, militarily and from a security standpoint.

When the A/S served in Nigeria from 1969-1971, the United States had the Embassy in Lagos with Consulates in Ibadan, Kaduna, and briefly in Port Harcourt, before the Civil war, and also a USIS post in Kano. With the Nigerian population at 50 million the United States was better and more broadly represented in a Nigeria that produced almost no oil.

With an Embassy in Abuja and a Consulate in Lagos, the United States has experienced a “huge loss” in Nigeria today, per A/S Carson. The United States must get back into Enugu and Port Harcourt. “No presence means no access, which leads to no influence. Without influence you have nothing.”

¶7. (C) Akwa Ibom governor Godswill Akpabio was singled out as an impressive governor by Mark Ward. Akpabio has built up infrastructure and industrial development. He is “one to watch” per Ward. Other Southern governors that were highlighted included were Rivers State governor Chibulke Amaechi and Edo State governor Oshiomhole. Fawthrop suggested that USAID has a lot to offer in the South in that if USAID makes a mistake it is OK.

If a private company engages in a similar project and makes a mistake you have a FCPA investigation. The Consul General (CG) added that it might be possible to team up with security assets of the IOCs to arrange diplomatic trips to the Niger Delta. This arrangement would not happen “100 percent of the time,” but more often than not, per the CG.

STATUS OF THE PETROLEUM INDUSTRY BILL

¶8. (C) The PIB is more about taking control and not a real solution, per Mark Ward. XXXXXXXXXXXX There are currently three versions between the Senate, House, and Interagency committee and it is unclear when and what will materialize, according to Ward. Fawthrop added that the PIB amounts to resource nationalization and stated that it costs more than 40 percent to develop the oil as opposed to leaving it in the ground. The current fiscals of the PIB estimate that is costs 25 percent to develop the oil, thereby creating a disincentive.

If the oil stays in the ground then billions of development money will go away and the resulting slowdown will be a massive problem. The IOCs received a lecture from a team made up of various GON agencies (the interagency team) in Abuja In a recent meeting in an example of the current level of communication per Fawthrop. The whole group then went to the office of the Vice President where the interagency team stated that there was very good communication between them and the IOCs.

¶9. (C) The large fields, elephants, have all been developed in Nigeria per Fawthrop. What remains are fields one-quarter to one-third the size. The same costs are involved in producing the oil but the revenue will be less because there is less oil.

The IOCs need more incentive, not less, in order to develop these fields profitably. What the PIB accomplishes is a disincentive. The downstream sector is very simple in Nigeria in that the refined gas is moved from one tanker to another, to a smaller tanker and then sold. The refining sector, exploration and production sectors are very complex. It is unrealistic for the PIB to try to change all of these areas in one tome of legislation, asserted Fawthrop.

¶10. (C) The gas side of the PIB tries to legislate the delivery of gas rather than incentivize it. “The donkey is tired and beaten. It will not go no matter what you tell it” stated Fawthrop. If the gas price went to two thirds of the world price the IOCs would “cut each others throat” to cut the price by one or two cents.

The rest of the IOC members nodded in agreement to this statement by Fawthrop. European gas competition has gas developed on a cost plus basis adding about eight percent to the cost. The model should be based on rate of return and not forced upon operators by legislative decree.

¶11. (C) Whenever gas doubles the cost of electricity goes up by one quarter. Stable electricity will allow industry to flourish in Nigeria but this will not happen 15 months before the elections. Amateur technocrats run the oil and gas sector according to Shell’s Peter Robinson.

They believe that they can control the industry via spreadsheets and pushing through the PIB. There are many emotional issues in the PIB with Nigerian politicians believing that they make no money on deep-water projects. Potential banker and businessmen partners do not understand the industry. The GON has made USD 2.5 billion with no investment in the past two years according to Robinson.

¶12. (C) A large problem will be the ten percent of equity that is to go to the communities argued Fawthrop. Equity going into the communities will make them explode. The recipients of the monies will be highly disappointed when they see the amount they will receive, a much larger sum will be expected. Kramer referred to the community equity as the “lawyer relief act” and wondered how one defines an actual community.

¶13. (C) Peter Robinson stated after the meeting that Pedro Van Meurs, the oil consultant hired by the GON to help negotiate with the IOCs, is considering leaving. Van Meurs has been trying to show the GON officials that their fiscal math does not work with the PIB.

Van Meurs does not agree with the IOC position completely but sees areas for improvement. One example given to Lagos Econoff by Exxon Mobil Project Manager Anh Tran concerned the levels of cost involved with deep-water projects. Exxon, and other IOCs, maintain that their capital costs are at least 40 percent of deep-water projects while the GON allows for 25 percent capital costs under the PIB. Van Meurs agreed that 25 percent was not adequate.

WHERE DOES NIGERIA GO FROM HERE?

¶14. (C) It is possible that Nigeria could be a future Pakistan according to A/S Carson. In 25 years, there could be impoverished masses, a wealthy elite and radicalism in the North. The question is whether the oil wells will be dry as well and could Nigeria be on “sustainable and irreversible glide path to a new economic base” per the A/S.

When you look at the 2020/20 plan by the GON you see that Nigeria needs to grow by 14 percent a year to be at the current level of Indonesia Fawthrop asserted. That is using today’s figures, which does not take into account Indonesia’s growth Kramer added. Nigeria is growing at five percent now and would need 20 percent growth per annum in energy and USD 22 billion investment in power plants Fawthrop stated.

What would happen if Nigeria fell just short of their goals, would there be an alternative plan in place Fawthrop wondered? He cited the example of the 2009 6,000 Megawatt goal. It was apparent early on that the goal was not feasible and an alternative plan could have been devised. The GON insisted that they would reach their goal and did not develop alternatives. The same would hold true for 2020/20 Fawthrop assumed.

¶15. (C) The A/S offered that a forum could be organized in Nigeria with World Bank President Robert Zoellick speaking to a wide audience. Under Secretary for Economic, Energy, and Agricultural Affairs Bob Hormats would be invited as well to lend his knowledge of Africa. The forum would be shaped with the broader picture in mind, not just oil. This would not be sponsored by the IOCs. Members of the business community and individuals that were committed to making oil meaningful to Nigeria’s future would be asked to participate.

Talk would center on “over the horizon” issues, where Nigeria has gone right and where it has gone wrong. Two or three fora would be defined with key people to spark debate. Religious tensions, North-South issues, the lack of capacity in the GON, narco-trafficking, the growing irrelevance of Nigeria, as Princeton Lyman has suggested, could be potential subjects. Nigeria is at a critical financial and political threshold and the entire nation could possibly tip backwards permanently, per A/S Carson.

CHINESE - AMERICAN RELATIONS IN AFRICA

¶16. (C) What is the status of America’s influence in Africa and how does it compare to China, Fawthrop queried? The influence of the United States has increased in Africa, the A/S countered. The United States’ reputation is stable and its popularity is the highest in Africa compared to anywhere else in the world. Obama has helped to increase that influence. “We must manage the expectations of the Obama administration” offered the A/S.

The United States does not consider China a military, security or intelligence threat. China is a very aggressive and pernicious economic competitor with no morals. China is not in Africa for altruistic reasons. China is in Africa for China primarily. A secondary reason for China’s presence is to secure votes in the United Nations from African countries. A third reason is to prove that Taiwan is not an issue.

There are trip wires for the United States when it comes to China. Is China developing a blue water navy? Have they signed military base agreements? Are they training armies? Have they developed intelligence operations? Once these areas start developing then the United States will start worrying. The United States will continue to push democracy and capitalism while Chinese authoritarian capitalism is politically challenging. The Chinese are dealing with the Mugabe’s and Bashir’s of the world, which is a contrarian political model, A/S Carson stated.

COMMENT

¶17. (C) A/S Carson effectively provided the IOCs with a rationale for the United States’ interest in Nigeria and its commitment to the country. This commitment seems more substantial than the IOCs given the prospect of the PIB and the current state of play in Nigeria.

Providing the IOCs with statements of support through continuing if not increasing the USG presence in Nigeria will be important in determining the increasing, decreasing or non-existent role of the IOCs in the future in Nigeria. As the A/S stated, if we can have a substantial presence in Pakistan, why not Nigeria?

END COMMENT.

¶18. (U) A/S Carson did not have an opportunity to clear this cable before departing post. BLAIR