On #Brexit: We must remain for our democracy

The Control

Much has been said about taking back control by the proponents and outsized figureheads of the #Brexit campaign, and maybe they have a point.

However, there will be immediate and long-term consequences if the United Kingdom votes for #Brexit.

The main issue is our democracy and that has been a serious debating point throughout this referendum discussion. We have a parliamentary democracy in the UK, and though I did not vote for the Conservative Party in the last general election, I am happy to be represented by the government of the day.

Some of their policies are not to my liking, but the people in charge headed by David Cameron who we voted for have maintained a somewhat steady course from 2010 in a coalition and then as a majority government since 2015. This parliament, come what may, will run until 2020.

The coup

If we do vote #Brexit, this the very likely scenario, there will be a palace coup, David Cameron and his cabinet will probably be thrown out and we face the possibility of Boris Johnson as Prime Minister with senior cabinet figures in Michael Gove and Iain Duncan Smith, I will not be surprised if Nigel Farage is flung into the House of Lords in gratitude.

Whilst this will be a democratic exercise within the ruling party, it is unlikely to bear the hallmarks of the democracy we desire and it will run until 2020. None of these personalities have ever held a great office of state, that is Prime Minister, Home Secretary, Foreign Secretary or Defence Secretary.

Iain Duncan Smith has been a leader of opposition, Boris Johnson, the Mayor of London and Michael Gove is the Justice Secretary, the government of the UK carries a greater responsibility than these men have ever faced, they will be tyros, inexperienced, learning on the job and at the same time trying to negotiate a new identity for the UK in the world.

The greenhorns

It is my humble opinion that this task will be well beyond their experience and capacity to manage that the UK will probably both suffer internally and internationally for this venture into two uncertainties of experience and unquantified hope.

There is every reason to be energised by the concept of an Independence Day tomorrow, but give it a thought, on economic matters, they have no insight, on immigration, they have held no such responsibility. On negotiations even Boris Johnson could not bring to fruition the night travel he promised on London transport, Michael Gove literally frustrated the teachers rather than persuade them, Iain Duncan Smith presided over a regime where the vulnerable were victimised and Nigel Farage besides being abusive and rude in the European Parliament could not win his own constituency last year.

These are the untested and untried people, we are about to hand our country to, to take us on an untried and untested journey outside Europe outside of the people on the remain side have gathered a wide coalition, many of whom hold offices of responsibility and have validated contacts with our partners far and wide around the world.

 Some realism

Yes, we can be bloody-minded and adventurous as Britons, and indeed, if there were a different set of tested experienced people to hand control over to, the case for #Brexit might have been stronger to me, but there is nothing in #Brexit than a suicidal attempt in the unknown, for the unseen, in the uncharted, for a destination unscripted, there is just too much unappealing about this matter to hand it over to this crowd.

It is for this reason, even if we are persuaded of no other that I will appeal so earnestly that we vote to remain, for continuity in the hands of the experienced, for some confidence in competence even in the uncertain times ahead, a sense of quantified risk in what we know as opposed to a whole set of unknown unknowns.

This is just too great to risk for independence in the hands of greenhorns.

We must vote to remain.

The UK: My thoughts are with David Laws

One revelation and a story

I have just read with sadness the resignation of David Laws the coalition Secretary to the Treasury on the matter of claiming expenses for accommodation on the premises of his partner.

The unfortunate consequence is that Mr. Laws has inadvertently been outed as gay in a long-term relationship with the man purported to have been his landlord.

There are many angles of looking at this story but the one that most draws my sympathy is that Mr. Laws who is just a month older than I am had settled into the convenience of being in the closet as a single man in public office without any of his close relations knowing of this secret affair – however, it is all now exposed and ones thoughts are prayers are with all concerned.

An ambiguous rule of life

Obviously the commons rules about claiming accommodation expenses require that claimants do not do so when with partners, relations or business associates.

Technically, if Mr. Laws had not declared his residence in plush Kensington to the West of London people might have said there are a quid pro quo scenario developing leaving a Member of Parliament open to influence, his claiming expenses however has lead to this rather human tragedy of sorts from which I do hope he does recover well.

The nation has lost a smart and possibly very able minister to scandals and the plural is deliberate – the scandal that prevents people from being confident of acceptance as gay if they should so choose to declare that fact, the scandal of claiming expenses whilst living with one’s partner even though there is no legal or common law basic for same-sex relationships in the UK except where a civil partnership has been entered into and the scandal of newspapers that have no compunction in exposing anything that would help sell their copy.

The Daily Telegraph has averred that it had no intention of outing Mr. Laws but there is no way that story would have made any news without that consequence as part of its sensational import and interest.

Politicians are not saints

I do not believe that our politicians should be subject to the kinds of moral standards we should expect of the clergy, they are not saints, they are people like you and I who have offered to serve our country in whatever capacity they have been elected and selected to serve.

This would obviously not encourage capable and competent but seemingly flawed people to enter politics for the fear of being mauled by the rabid dogs of the press pretending to be cuddly kittens.

It reminds me of the resignation of Lord John Browne from the chairmanship of BP when in trying to conceal the matter of his sexuality he perjured himself and was vilified for perjury despite the more personal issue at stake.

Acceptance is not a given, even in the West

There is no doubt that even though the middle-classes in the general sense might have the liberality of accepting and tolerating homosexuality, those with influence and in authority, politics or even international sports are not that at ease with revealing who they truly are – it leaves them prone to blackmail and possibly ignominy – the saddest case of those consequences of declaring ones sexuality can only have one looking at how that revelation lead to Justin Fashanu’s suicide in an abandoned garage in East London.

The fear of rejection looms large, more so the threat of homophobia which has not been eradicated even from Western societies and the misfortune that might accompany being disowned by loved and trusted ones – it is not an easy life and our humanity is the poorer for how difference stops people from being the best they could ever be by first being truly themselves.

Sources

BBC News - Treasury Minister David Laws resigns over expenses

Other references

Lies - Between human frailty and the law [akin.blog-city.com]

Obituary: Justin Fashanu - Obituaries, News - The Independent

The UK: The evidence for radical electoral reform

A difficult poll

Even the mother of all parliaments and one of the world’s oldest democracies is fraught with problems, issues and irregularities.

Yesterday, the citizens of United Kingdom of Northern Ireland and Great Britain went to the polls to elect representatives for their parliament called the House of Commons, however, the people did not give a clear majority mandate to any one political party and with that comes what is know as a hung parliament.

Sadly, there are people who did not get to vote because of the poor logistics of not anticipating the possible turnout such that there were long queues and polls had to close at 22:00 hours leaving hundreds disenfranchised.

Certain councils catered for students quite differently from residents even though all were selecting representatives whose work would affect them locally and nationally – there is no doubt that the system is broken.

Change and reform required

Balloting has to move from papers but electronic ballots must have a paper trail for verification and confidence in the system and there should be more flexibility to extend times of the polls if voters have arrived at polling stations before the deadline.



The most disturbing part of this election is the discrepancy between votes cast and seats won – the leading party polled 36.1% of the votes and will take 47.2% of the seats whilst the third party which polled 23% of the votes 8.8% of the seats.

This is manifestly wrong and does not reflect the clear and express wishes of the electorate; it calls for a radical reform of how our votes are translated to representation with a proper correlation between votes and the acquisition of power.

An expired system

The first-past-the-post system might have worked for past but there is no way how this can be the system for the 21st Century.

Today the Liberal Democrats have the opportunity to demand a change that allows for the people have their wishes fully expressed when they form a coalition with whatever party can garner the support and will to run the country after this election.

Dividends of democracy

In the graphic that shows the rewards of proportional representation, the UK Independence Party and the British National Party weigh in with a possible 32 Members of Parliament between them.

Whilst they constitute a right-wing of almost unsavoury politics, the people who voted for them are part of our democracy and as I did say in comments I made on Facebook, having these parties with representation in the House of Commons is enough a price to pay to ensure that the voice of the majority is heard loud and clear.

All the dividends of a democracy cannot all be profitable but any other system that takes better account of the percentage of votes polled nationally must be better than what we have now – electoral reform is inevitable, the people must demand it and get it.

A week of weak assertions

The News Today

Captured, Saddam Hussein found in a hole. After yesterday's blog, I could not have predicted that all the airwaves would be filled with first the news, then the opinions and finally, the propaganda.

Whilst the capture of the tyrant can be celebrated, it does not bring closure to the problems in Iraq; rather, the morning after the night before would reveal that a headless chicken could live for a lot longer than when it lost its head - in one instance, 18 months. Longest surviving headless chicken.

If Saddam were captured in a hole, it is unlikely that he has been the one orchestrating the insurgencies against the coalition in Iraq, but that are other malcontents and stakes against the forces of occupation. Those who reckon Saddam as their rallying symbol either would give up or be fired-up wreaking more havoc on the belligerents.

The White House, Pentagon and Downing Street would milk this event for all it is worth, but cows can only produce so much milk after which the udders would give no more until the next morning.

The Dirty numbers game

After George W. Bush took the White House; with the legitimacy of a one-vote majority in the Electoral College, and a minority of the popular American electorate vote. Little, could I have known the role numbers would play in events across the world.

Consensus

In Nigeria, after the Commonwealth meeting known as CHOGM was almost sidetracked into irrelevance by the Zimbabwean issue, President Obasanjo had to remind us of what a consensus means.

When you all agree to an issue in a consensus, you do repudiate your agreement later on. It was a smack across the chops of Mozambique, which is a wannabe Commonwealth country with not historical ties to Great Britain.

That I suppose revealed that some elements of the English Gentleman have to be taught to a number of countries; what is going on in Zimbabwe is wrong and we should stand up for what is just, represents justice and condemn tyranny in all its manifestations.

A majority it is not.

Earlier in the year, Colin Powell announced the coalition of the willing [The Coalition of the bullied] with regards to the Iraqi putsch - do not get me wrong, the Iraqi issue was always a putsch, but when the Weapons of Mass Destruction did not materialise we heard it was a quest for regime change.

Anyway, this coalition if made up of the US, the UK, Australia, Japan and other insignificant little-stans as you will see from link above.

However, this list does not include Russia [Erstwhile world power and largest country], China [Most populous and fastest growing economy], India [Largest democracy and 2nd most populous country], Brazil [Largest democracy and economic driver of South America], Nigeria [Largest democracy in Africa and oil-power], the Arab league, Germany &France and a host of another 130 countries of the world.

There is no doubt that the coalition of the willing find themselves beholding to America for aid or other means of subsistence, examples being Colombia, Nicaragua, Ethiopia, El Salvador - the old Eastern Bloc countries have simply exchanged the Soviet allegiance for the American allegiance in the New World Order.

Little doing much.

Then the debate on the European constitution collapse on the issue of voting rights. There again, a sensible use of numbers has been jettisoned for the dirty numbers game agreed a few years ago in Nice.

For now, the votes would not be weighted according to the existing populations of the representative countries but on some arbitrary weighting which gives Spain (Population 40.2m) and Poland (Population 38.6m) 27 votes respectively to Germany's (Population 82.4m) 29 the same number it shares with France and the United Kingdom (Population 60m) which have a similar population size. Population Statistics

The commonsense argument would be; properly weigh these votes in relation to population, which means Germanywould command more influence in Europe; and rightly, so, Germany has the most Europeans.

However, it seems we would live with this fudge until 2009. It is a horrible numbers game when the mini-stans of Europe have the power to upstage European progress to the chagrin of the majority.

19 Billions dollars and all that fuss.

The final numbers game was in the decision to allocate Iraq rebuilding contracts to countries that were part of that coalition. From my reckoning, only six of the 30 have the infrastructure to make any meaningful contribution.

As for the kafuffle of the coalition of the un-bullied, at 19 billion dollars for the whole project, one is sure they can get better business elsewhere with security for their human assets. Even the Red Cross and UN have lost too much in Iraq to be bothered about that amount in general economic terms.

Hope indeed.

Eventually, an honest broker does the counting and the whole truth would numb the purveyors of dirty and weak numbers who seem to be having a field day today.