With the Sudanese, I stand

An overturned coup

There are some things you observe from afar without much engagement. At times, the issue gets a passing glance until something significant happens. I was on a BBC news site earlier and I read that the military coup in Sudan last month has now been overturned. [BBC News: Sudan's military reinstates ousted civilian PM Hamdok]

The previous ousted Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok who was missing at one time and then under some sort of house arrest at the whim of the military junta has now been reinstated as part of a power-sharing arrangement.

I stand with the Sudanese

This is quite an unusual development, that a military coup returns to civilian leadership with the same personnel outside of a bloody counter-coup. We have to watch the developments as to the viability of this new agreement and whether it would be accepted.

What we cannot ignore is the public protests and demonstrations of the Sudanese public who have been against the coup from the onset against the brutal onslaught and repression of the military. This coupled with mounting international pressure must have led the military to capitulate. After 30 years of Omar al-Bashir, the Sudanese had lost no inhibitions in seeking self-determination and civilian leadership, I commend them.

Nigeria sets no good examples for Africa

That Cliché about African Leadership

What is happening in Africa today bothers me a lot because it all concerns leadership – poor leadership, rotten leadership, leadership acquired by violence and corruption, leadership held onto without offering good governance, idiotic leadership and sprinklings of good leadership.

Very few countries in Africa can boast good leadership, there is hope, but what does surround us now is chaos.

For instance, today, Darfur in Sudan still represents an intractable problem of genocide that is quickly fading from urgent action; the completely botched elections in Kenya has caused so much unrest, violent displacement and killings that it might slip out of the control of the political leaders, Zimbabwe has registered an inflation rate (150,000%) that makes the mind boggle and rebels are trying to unseat a government in Chad.

Africans adrift in Africa

The result of this is Africans are refugees in their own Africa, displaced because of policies implemented by fellow Africans who want power and give no respite to their people – savagery, murder, hunger and displacement becomes the lot of the masses whilst the middle-classes and the rising prosperous classes are completely oblivious or indifferent of those problems in the slums, villages and the hinterland.

However, I only have to go back to my blogs in April 2007 where I lamented the issues around the Nigerian election to see why Africans are unlikely to have African solutions for African problems.

Africans silent to African suffering

The issue in Darfur never became a crisis until others outside the continent decided they could not stand for such large-scale suffering, Africans are still dragging their feet on the matter.

The elections in Kenya were most definitely flawed as the head of the electoral commission eventually said he was not sure of who won. African leaders then welcomed the imposed president who “stole” the elections whilst he left his country behind burning.

The entrenched eternal incumbency of Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe should have come to an end with the people of the country being able to choose who would lead their country out of the morass it is in, but for the appeasement of African leaders that continues to make a bad situation worse.

It would take the threat and actions of the French army in Chad to keep a democratic dictator, Idriss Deby who has done nothing for his country in all his years in power that others who think they can do the job better have to resort to arms to unseat him.

Where is the country?

The question is, where is the African country with the authority, clout, gravitas and respect that can speak up for the downtrodden masses and exert the kind of influence to ensure things are done right in the “Dark” continent, such we can all be seen in the light as enlightened, emancipated and in control, able to solve our problems with confidence?

Step forward – Nigeria? The Giant of Africa in size offers none of this ability, its institutions are still mired in corruption, its elections are flawed that it cannot condemn the ones in Kenya, its leadership skirts illegitimacy so it can say nothing to Sudan, Zimbabwe or Chad.

In all that has been happening in the last few weeks, we have heard not one squeak from the Heart of Africa because it has a bad heart.

The insignificance of the giant

We have the biggest sporting event going on in Africa and the grand populace of 130 million could not produce a team that could survive the first stage of eliminations.

This is result of our polity not realising the example we should be setting for Africa so that things can be done right and if done wrongly, we can be a model for correction.

Unfortunately, South Africa cannot step into the breach because they have not been able to raise the expectations of their people beyond subsistence; they would end up with a leader very much in the mould of the many that gives Africa a very bad name.

Africa can only begin to solve its own problems when we deal with each other honestly, truthfully, fairly, justly and with mutual respect based on leadership and governance that eschews corruption and nepotism, that embraces transparency and begins to tackle with vigour the problems that affect Africa and Africans.

There is hope for Africa, but in the meantime, it would require a lot more international intervention and scrutiny to ensure what we are doing is well beyond reproach and within globally acceptable standards before we are respectfully left to maturely seek African solutions to African problems.

PS: This was written to highlight the frustration of a fellow Nigerian about his country not being able to address African issues with boldness because we have set bad examples and lost the moral authority that could be projected with our greatness in Africa.

Religion for bitter or better people

Left as kids and lost as adults

In the light of recent events, let us examine the matter of crime, punishment, rehabilitation and social consequence.

Our liberalising values have consigned the heretofore corporal punishment as a deterrent to children and juveniles to the moniker of barbarism as we try to reason with toddlers and attempt to bribe adolescents to be socially responsible.

Certain commentators would opine that discipline in our youth is a big problem and as we have come up with innovative ways of curtailing their freedoms they have likewise come up with more bizarre ways of thumbing their noses at society. The growing prevalence of gun and knife crime as well as social ills like juvenile drunkenness, pregnancy and anti-social demeanour has its roots in things we have left undone in the formative years.

Doing the law with flaws

One then questions the fairness of meting out strict, strong and extreme punishments for crimes committed as adults when as children the issues of actions, consequences and responsibility had been deprecated in favour of rights of the child over any other important aspect of upbringing.

The result is, we end up with bitter people rather than better people; this concept turns on the application of religious laws enacted in times when men were illiterate, living in feudal societies, subject to the whims of those in power who acted with impunity, when not much value was placed on life and self-respect was about knowing your place in society – a position from which you never saw promotion.

I worry about the gap between religious adherence and social consequence; one law would require that the hands of thief be cut off as punishment, another would suggest that he who steals should steal no more and engage in work – one executes wrath whilst the other embraces mercy – it should not take a social scientist to determine who would end up the bitter person and who would end up the better person.

Irreversible punishments

The person who has his hands cut off becomes a social misfit, unable to work as the law applied does not cater for rehabilitation to re-enter society, whilst the person is a sign; a deterrent – making examples of people without the recourse for possible reversal or correction is both barbaric and unjust.

There are however societies that remain backward and unprogressive, shackled to religious tenets that prevent the people from becoming part of the more emancipated global village.

No doubt public flogging is meant to humiliate, but having exacted grievous bodily harm in keeping with the letter of the law one wonders if there is a social element that help the punished nurse the wounds and regain self-confidence before they are caught in a downward spiral of infection, shame, depression, seclusion and isolation.

Leniency and mercy

There must be an element of mercy in the administration of punishments; not so much the leniency of cutting off one hand instead of both hands or reducing the number of floggings but total exculpation, with the person realising that they have been spared horrors and given another chance.

Unfortunately, some belief systems excel at punishment, manage aspects of leniency, grudgingly attempt mercy, fail woefully at forgiveness and know nothing of absolution. They make no provision for rehabilitation and do not accommodate societal changes that would entertain another perspective, they in fact, do much to make bitter men than better men.

Old teachings in new times

We need to check as see if the teachings we received of old have become out-dated in these civilised and modern times. The consequences of certain punishments may in the eyes of the conservatives look like justice but to observers might appear as mean, unpersuadable, illiberal, intemperate and usually quite immature.

If I got upset every time I was called names and sought to mete out the most severe revenge in the name of some perverse form of justice, I would be considered an impossible person without self-control – contrast that with being able to rise above it all – that is a sign of maturity and in some cases a high self-esteem.

Adherents really need to review their perception of their religious dogma and the laws they so fervently espouse more to visiting violence on others than stepping forward and boldly owning up to their own misdeeds.

In essence, one wonders if religious laws have a civilising effect on society or they just suspend endearing qualities of humanity which include reason, analysis and thought in the selfish need to maintain a strangle-hold on the people and keeping them in the dark from other humane perspectives

As a point to ponder, if there were better prosthetics, would the person whose hands were cut off be allowed to take that therapy?

Don't name the teddy bear

Emotional religious agitation

This is sometimes a minefield in which a minesweeper would be blown to smithereens. The standards and rules that govern the interpretation of religious norms or in this case whims.

So suddenly in the last few years the sensibilities of certain old Middle-Eastern religions have been so easily bruised that our modern and civilised world is dragged back to the middle-ages of hysteria and histrionics fuelled by unscrupulous leaders of thought who test their influence by inflaming the mob.

This was evidenced in the cartoon riots of last year where I wrote a series of blogs starting with one which seeks a humorous God, a God that can laugh and sometimes laughs at the delusions of puny human-beings.

Flags in wrong places?

One nation belies a readiness for controversy and contempt by having symbols of God on its flag; they condone the trampling and burning of other nation’s flags and it would be unthinkable the outrage that would be mustered if the same action is meted out on their flag.

The mob was then gathered to protest the presence of the Saudi Arabian flag amongst all other world flags painted on footballs donated to Afghan kids. One would think the anger should have been directed at the Saudis for creating a situation where the symbols of faith might be denigrated in unintended and benign circumstances.

Naming a teddy

However, nowhere has this religiosity taken on a more bizarre twist than when a teddy bear named after a child in a class which by happenstance is the name of the prophet – the teacher of that class is now in danger of a fine, corporal punishment and jail.

The charge sheet reads like we have a terrorist on the loose; insulting religion – in the 21^st Century? Showing contempt for religious beliefs – one wonders what is more contemptible the reaction or the lack of a global authority on the core elements of Islam apart from reading the biorhythms of the local imam who feels to excite his people to insurrection rather than exhort them to peaceful co-existence in a global village?

Obviously, we can ignore the sentiment that the said teacher had left the enlightenment of the West to help children in a war-torn region realise a place in our global village – but that is of no significance – enlightenment in an educational setting takes second-place to religious temperament which is never subject to logic, common-sense or reason – it is the supreme fount of discord.

Taking apologies for God

Whilst international condemnation has been made of this absurd tendency to be offended in general without being essentially committed to the real tenets of the faith, the idea that an apology can be made to assuage tension is interesting.

Someone somewhere seems to be able to take apologies for God or the prophet – it reminds me of one story in the Bible where the people took so much offence at the breaking down of the altar to their symbol of worship; reason seeped into the reckoning and the people were persuaded that if that god was so angered, the god might as well visit wrath on the offender - thereby people can still be at peace with each other and that very powerful god can show strength that would bring enemies to their knees in worship and obeisance.

It might be so easy to say that these mobs are technically taking on themselves personification of God or the prophet for the self-aggrandisement – it does nothing to promote their religion; rather it heaps opprobrium from possible adherents on their faith, beliefs, convictions, integrity and allows all to question their sanity.

The NOT dogma

What we have is a simplistic dogma codified in – see not, touch not, feel not, hear not, read not, think not, write not, draw not and speak not – obviously, this means no one gets offended and surely no progress in humanity and we recede to the stone age from whence we came – it does not augur well at all.

Are we on the path to true religion when we pander to such dark-age inquisitions masquerading as holy anger that simply is public insurrection by those too idle to do worthwhile things in their communities and for humanity at large?

Addendum

That Bible story (Judges 6:28-32) The Message version.

28 Early in the morning, the people in town were shocked to find Baal's altar torn down, the Asherah pole beside it chopped down, and the prime bull burning away on the altar that had been built.

29 They kept asking, "Who did this?"

Questions and more questions, and then the answer: "Gideon son of Joash did it."

30 The men of the town demanded of Joash: "Bring out your son! He must die! Why, he tore down the Baal altar and chopped down the Asherah tree!"

31 But Joash stood up to the crowd pressing in on him, "Are you going to fight Baal's battles for him? Are you going to save him? Anyone who takes Baal's side will be dead by morning. If Baal is a god in fact, let him fight his own battles and defend his own altar."

32 They nicknamed Gideon that day Jerub-Baal because after he had torn down the Baal altar, he had said, "Let Baal fight his own battles."

My reading of this is simple, someone caused great religious offence that the adherents were ready to go out and kill the offender - reason intervened – let that religious entity fight its own battles if it feels so offended.

Sometimes, we need to let God, Mohammed, Jesus or whoever else we dare to worship fight their own battles rather than allow ourselves to become instruments of riot, death and discord.

Clapping for the Zimbabwe Mugabe destroyed

Clapping for the tyrant

This is really beyond me and my understanding of issues African. I am always amazed at how problems in Africa are allowed to fester and sometimes accorded the impression that things are alright when again like I said in my blog yesterday, they really are not.

One can say they reason why Darfur has continued to be the greatest humanitarian crisis in years is because African leaders have refused to stand up to other leaders in Sudan who have decimated their people with a brutality that is now only second to the Nazis.

The Nigerian elections which were clearly unfair, not credible and definitely not free as many objective observers could see were passed off as free and fair, everyone accepting the unacceptable and moving on.

The one that really beats me is at the summit of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) in Lusaka yesterday, the gerontocrat Grand Despot of Africa – Robert Mugabe drew the greatest applause from the delegates at the summit.

Now, this might be a case of history not catching up with the present since Robert Mugabe at 83 is the oldest living African freedom fighter who is still in office, but this was at least a generation ago.

The demise of Zimbabwe

This man came into office in 1980, assumed all the levers of power soon afterwards and embarked on what is essentially the politics of anti-imperialism (PDF) – kicking the white man out and letting the indigenous black man take over the property and businesses of the white men who were forcibly dispossessed.

Now, there is more to the workings of this matter, but these few facts remain evident; Zimbabwe used to be a vibrant economy and the bread basket of Southern Africa, many of the white men who were driven out of their farms are just as Zimbabwean as any other black Zimbabwean – the white could possibly trace their ancestry back a lot further than any of their indigenous assailants.

The fundamental flaws in Mugabe’s mission was that a fair value was not placed on the property seized and after seizure, it was handed over to either his cronies or so-called freedom fighters who as mobs could raid the farms but had not inkling as to how to run the farms.

In the process, the mainstays of the Zimbabwean economy collapsed around a political situation that should be untenable if any African leader had risen up to really challenge the rape of Zimbabwe by selfsame Africans.

Now, about a quarter of Zimbabweans have fled the country to become refugees in neighbouring countries, the majority in South Africa as inflation in the country scales 4,500% and is expected to reach 100,000% by the end of 2007.

The Presidency introduced price controls which were of no effect because the shelves in the stores are empty as Mugabe still maintains a grip on power as a leviathan mite sucking dry the blood of everything that was once good about Zimbabwe.

Sorry Africans

Within this sorry tale of a catastrophic African failure, seemingly respectable people find the enthusiasm to applaud President Robert Mugabe for all he has undone for Africa.

I seriously do not get it, but this is enough to give Mr. Mugabe the impetus to carry on digging his country into the ground with South Africa being given the responsibility of resolving the democratic crisis that Mr. Mbeki has been too cack-handed to bring to any reasonable compromise.

I predict, if leaders of Southern Africa do not honestly speak up as men of principle about the unforgivable mess going on in Zimbabwe, France and Germany would be ready to host the 2010 World Cup because Zimbabwe for all intents and purposes is a man-made natural disaster that is claiming more victims and getting worse. I do not want to find myself in a security situation that could have been prevented if due attention, incentive or sanctions had been applied to get Zimbabwe out of the rut that it is in now.

Aussies put the boot in

Australia has never minced words about the situation in Zimbabwe to the extent that Prime Minister John Howard in preventing the national cricket team from visiting Zimbabwe for a test termed Mugabe a grubby dictator.

I am heartened by the fact that Australia would deport 8 students whose parents are senior members of the Mugabe government on one simple premise – “preventing those behind human rights abuses from giving their children the education their policies denied ordinary Zimbabweans”.

It is commendable and should be the kind of policy Western governments should mete out to leaders who plunder their homelands whilst seeking world-class opportunities for their kids in preparation for creating ascendant dynasties of leadership for generations to come.

As usual, Zimbabwe would react with some bombastic diatribe, to Australia this time, they are accused of “funding violence by aiding civic groups in the country”.

A Closer Look at the Failed States Index - Sudan is really worse than Iraq

Assess before debunking

Having reviewed a few comments on the Failed States Report for 2007, I have decided that it is important to pay a bit more attention to the detail of the figures because certain sceptical views are beginning to pick away that the generalisations.

There is one thought that contends that the methodology is primitive and does not measure up to the standard of metrics used to rate universities, but can that really be the case?

One however can understand that it is difficult to accept that Sudan is more a failed state than either Iraq or Somalia, maybe, but we need to look more at what is being rated.

The Fund For Peace organisation has exposed 12 indicators on which they have based the scoring that has resulted in the rankings we see.

Beneath these broad 12 indicators are some sub-levels of analysis which would have weighted averages; these are all computed using their copyrighted (Conflict Assessment System Tool) CAST methodology and patented CAST software.

The CAST methodology derives most of its information sources from the Thomsen Dialog which is a collection of over 900 databases packing over 15 terabytes of content aggregated from reputable publishers, including news feeds, broadcast transcripts, articles from newspapers and magazines, financial analysis information, references, and research and technical data - this reference in Wikipedia has a postscript seeking balance for this assertion.

This huge database of databases has been piling on data since 1966 and it well predates the Internet as the first online information retrieval system.

The Methodology

The Methodology consists of 5 steps which are followed in chronological order, the detail of which you can follow through from the links below.

Pre-Assessment Steps
Rating the Twelve Indicators

This step is as detailed as represented below for Rwanda, a monthly breakdown of each indicator.

Assessing the Core Five
Identifying STINGS
Building a Conflict Map

The STINGS make interesting reading covering unexpected scenarios that could impact on conflict assessment, I reproduce that below.

STINGS is an acronym used here to describe:

Surprises (e.g., currency collapse)

Triggers (e.g., assassinations, coup d'etats)

Idiosyncrasies (e.g., non-contiguous territory, a deference to authority)

National Temperaments (e.g., cultural or religious perspectives)

Spoilers (e.g., disgruntled followers, excluded parties)

The data set that goes in the whole calculation is computed monthly and laid in a chart is illustrated below.

There are probably a few black arts in deriving a final conflict perspective of and country, but I would be the first to suggest that this all thing does look a bit thorough.

Believing Data or Perception
Now, anyone could probably argue and win the premise that Sudan cannot be more of a failed state than either Iraq or Somalia, I would contend that the data reads a lot different from perception.

Looking at the 12 indicators against the data for the three countries, certain facts become clearer.

The Dirty Dozen

Social Indicators

I-1. Mounting Demographic Pressures

I-2. Massive Movement of Refugees or Internally Displaced Persons creating Complex Humanitarian Emergencies

I-3. Legacy of Vengeance-Seeking Group Grievance or Group Paranoia

I-4. Chronic and Sustained Human Flight

Economic Indicators

I-5. Uneven Economic Development along Group Lines

I-6. Sharp and/or Severe Economic Decline

Political Indicators

I-7. Criminalization and/or Delegitimization of the State

I-8. Progressive Deterioration of Public Services

I-9. Suspension or Arbitrary Application of the Rule of Law and Widespread Violation of Human Rights

I-10. Security Apparatus Operates as a "State Within a State"

I-11. Rise of Factionalized Elites

I-12. Intervention of Other States or External Political Actors

The comparison

The scores for the top 3 failed states show a variation of just 2.2%, though no margin of error is specified, typical consumer awareness studies would accommodate a margin of error of ± 3.0% meaning there is hardly a cigarette paper between these three states.

		I-1	I-2	I-3	I-4	I-5	I-6	I-7	I-8	I-9	I-10	I-11	I-12	Total
1	Sudan	9.2	9.8	10	9	9.1	7.7	10	9.5	10	9.9	9.7	9.8	113.7
2	Iraq	9	9	10	9.5	8.5	8	9.4	8.5	9.7	10	9.8	10	111.4
3	Somalia	9.2	9	8.5	8	7.5	9.2	10	10	9.7	10	10	10	111.1

However, one just has to review in detail the country profiles of the said countries to see clearly why the numbers have turned up this way.

For instance, I-2 - Sudan already has over 2 million internally displaced people, Iraq has only just topped 730,000, I-3 - There is clear group grievance between the Shias and Sunnis as Al Qaeda operatives fuel the conflict, the situation in Sudan is between Blacks and the Arabs along with the atrocities of the Janjaweed, however, this is not as pronounced in Somalia. I-9 - Politically, Iraq has more of a government apparatus than either Sudan or Somalia and the human rights record of Sudan is definitely worse than that of both Iraq and Somalia.

At 1-12 - Iraq and Somalia have been invaded by the Coalition Forces and Ethiopia respectively, Sudan has skirmishes with Chad in the border areas and the peace keeping forces are in Sudan by grudging permission of the government in Khartoum.

Conclusion

It is incumbent on the all who develop an opinion on the Failed States Index to study the detail of how these figures came about before they are dismissed outright because of the uncomfortable reading they represent.

It may not be beyond reasonable doubt, but I do not have alternative empirical evidence to dispute these findings apart from acquired perception, neither do I want to be caught by the same bug that bit many regarding the Nigerian Census where people plucked figures out of the air to support there pre-conceptions whilst ignoring the data.

I would hope having an alternative source of global information quite separate from government organs like the CIA and the UN should give us more confidence to see beyond some force globalisation or imperialism painting the Dark Continent even a darker shade of black.

Sustaining bad reports from Africa

The international shame of it all

One must now begin to wonder if there is anymore pride to be had in being African.

Somehow we have been bestowed with ignominious leadership and representatives who heap opprobrium, ridicule and embarrassment on Africans; it is now unashamed bravado to proclaim African-ness in public and keep a straight face.

Last month we endured with derision the shameful debacle of the Nigerian (S)elections so comprehensively rigged there was almost no just recourse apart from new elections by unbiased organisations, but this did not happen.

A bit earlier, the grandfather of African despotism had his hoodlums beat up his political opponents as his country set records for hyperinflation.

Other African governments have tacitly allowed for Zimbabwe to become a basket-case, it is an utter disgrace.

Death on horseback

The only comfort in Darfur is death visiting people as horse-backed black Nazis called the Janjaweed. The incredible fact being they are equipped for their death mission by the Sudanese government and this has been going on for at least three years.

I am no fan of John Howard, the Prime Minister of Australia, but his decision to stop the Australian cricket team from touring Zimbabwe is laudable, nothing should be done to let the brigands in that government savour any ounce of credibility; unfortunately the British government could not muster the guts to take that kind of decision 2 years ago.

It appears we still have to learn of ways to ensure Africans do not get a raw deal from our leaders from the West. Where is our humanity, civility or even civilisation?

Sustainable disgrace

To crown it all, the UN Commission on Sustainable Development had a vacant chairmanship position available to be filled by an African and the Africans put forward the Zimbabwean Environment Minister of all qualified Africans we can find for such a role. It is laughable and risible if it were not a complete letdown of Africa and Africans.

Sustained destruction of a once great, resourceful and self-sufficient nation is what this man brings to the job following his service to Mugabe's megalomania.

Someone must be acting out irony or playing a bad joke. It leaves me unwilling to continue to identify as African and one is just not impressed.

We cannot continue to sustain this kind of report from Africa, it is primitive, ignorant, savage and backward, it must stop.