Nigeria: Definitely time to give June 12 a decent burial

Making history history

On June 12 2011, I wrote a piece titled Nigeria: Time to give June 12 a decent burial [1] for a number of reasons which already appear in that piece.

Basically, June 12 1993 is an important date in Nigerian history, it presented the opportunity for democratic self-determination but the military junta of that time made the promise unrealisable by annulling those elections.

In essence, the simple analogy that applies is the case of a medical student who came tops in every year of the course but failed for graduate – for all the knowledge that student might have acquired and demonstrated throughout that course that person is NOT a doctor.

Take the lessons but don’t live there

In the same vein, whilst June 12 was a watershed, a standard for what we all agree until the very recent past were the freest, fairest and most credible elections ever conducted in Nigeria, the fact that the results did not result in the winner of the election taking office because of the annulment makes it an unfulfilled exercise in democracy.

There is no doubt that there are lessons of history to be taken from June 12 and it probably sowed some seeds of national consciousness in Nigerians but 18 years have passed and Nigeria is in a different place.

In discussions that followed that write-up the opinions I expressed were termed revisionist and sometimes false. However, none of the assertions I made were without attribution and sources, the standard of my writing is such that corroboration and references are paramount.

A sloppy rebuttal

It is grating that the rebuttal to my piece Guest Post – June 12: Why Bury the Living Among The Dead? [2]fails to meet that standard none of the figures used are referenced, neither are the opinions corroborated and it is for all the intents of the writer more argumentum ad hominem than one that rises to the level of basic scholarly discourse albeit an ordinary opinion piece lacking the support of source material.

I owe no particular allegiance to either June 12 1993 or April 16 2011, the principal beneficiary of the 1993 election is long dead and buried with a memory approaching hagiographic proportions in the minds of certain Nigerians – I am not that persuaded.

In my view, the events and context of June 12 1993 should be taught as part of Nigerian history, it does not need to be hallowed and the needs for reparation or justice in relation to that time are matters of conjecture that honestly bear no relevance to Nigeria of today because a lot has changed since then.

Between 1993 and now

The Nigerian population in 1991 [3] was 88,992,220 the 2010 estimate [4] is put at 158,259,000, in 1993 an estimated 39,000,000 voters registered [5] compared to 73, 528,040 in 2011 [6].

In my original piece I referred to some data in an interview conducted with Professor Okon Uya who averred that the voter turnout was 13% [7] taking the spectre of credibility from the 1993 elections. I extrapolated that view to assert that even the lowest turnout in Ogun State of 28% in 2011 made the 1993 elections suspect.

On examination of new data, Professor Okon Uya was wrong about the voter turnout being 13% in 1993, the data suggests that the voter turnout [5] was 36.65%; however, the voter turnout for the 2011 elections according to INEC figures was 53.67%.

The context still remains valid

In my opinion, based on these new facts we find that the main thrust of my original argument is not lost, only made less extreme in its significance. Apart from the standards of freeness and fairness, voter turnout is also an attribute of election credibility and by that; we can safely state that the 2011 elections have eclipsed the 1993 elections.

The 2011 elections were not perfect, everyone will admit to that and some of the results are in dispute but the declared winners of the said elections have assumed office and will work in that capacity drawing their requisite emoluments until such a time that those election results are reaffirmed, overturned or declared invalid.

Nigeria is not waiting for that to happen even as justice takes its course, the lay of the land in Nigeria today is for the advancement of its people and the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals and other visionary plans the people who hold the reins of power have espoused.

Nigeria has moved on

June 12, 1993 has its significance to the many who give it some hagiographic importance but Nigeria has a median age [8] of 19 years meaning the core majority of Nigerians will have no particular connection with 1993 apart from them gaining a historical perspective of that event.

As things stand, we are in 2011, the best elections with a result we have ever conducted in all of the history of Nigeria taking note of the medical student analogy I used at the beginning of this piece was the election conducted on the 16^th of April, 2011, regardless of who won and despite the fact that the greater animosity to that election is one redolent of sore losers than other objective assessment.

My views of June 12 are hardly revisionist rather they aim to put two different times in context whilst appreciating how Nigeria has changed 18 years on, my refusal to idolise, eulogise or be sentimentally incapacitated with the subjective discourse making for some sense of greater patriotic persuasion is clear – 1993 is now history.

It is time to give June 12 a decent burial and get on with making Nigeria a country fit to take its rightful place in the 21^st Century.

Sources

[1] Nigeria: Time to give June 12 a decent burial

[2] Guest Post – June 12: Why Bury the Living Among The Dead?

[3] Table 1.3.2 - Numeric and percentage Distribution of the 1991 Census Figures

[4] Nigerian Population estimate for 2010

[5] African Elections Database – Elections in Nigeria

[6] April 16 2011 Presidential Election Results Analysis

[7] The Sun News On-line | Every election since 1922 has been manipulated –Okon Uya, ex-NECON boss

[8] Demographics of Nigeria – Wikipedia

Nigeria: Time to give June 12 a decent burial - Updated!

Yes, the hope died

June the Twelfth, 1993 has for years been marked as the day that Nigeria’s hopes for democracy died or as Sir Abubakar Tafawa Balewa would have so eloquently put it when he made his speech [1] as Prime Minister of a newly independent Nigeria; our claims to responsible government were rubbished.

After many years of military rule, the military leaders charted a course to return to the barracks and laid out a formula for self-determination and democracy which appeared to run its course to a point.

Parties were registered, campaigns were run, candidates were selected and elections conducted – Nigerians were waiting for the results.

An amazing change beckoned

As the results came in, it became apparent that a political earthquake was about to hit Nigeria and rearrange the topology of the single story that had defined what we knew of our country; the North, the South, Muslims, Christians and its tribal differences.

A Muslim Southerner was taking the spoils in the North and that trajectory was looking like Bashorun M. K. O, Abiola was going to be declared the winner and hence become the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria; a harbinger of change the ruling elite could not countenance with unfounded fears.

Unfortunately, just before all the tallies came in to confirm that emerging trend, the military Head of State, General Ibrahim Badamosi Babangida annulled the elections leaving an inconclusive state of affairs, but with at least enough to draw allusions from which now makes for the memorialisation of June the Twelfth.

It was not perfect

What made the elections of 1993 a benchmark for freeness, fairness and credibility was the voting method adopted that prevented the usual electoral criminality that we had gotten used to in the Nigerian landscape.

The Option A4 voting was an open ballot system where voters openly queued up behind their respective candidates or symbols of their candidates and were counted; the results were then collated up the hierarchy.

That is not to say that the elections of 1993 were perfect, there are ways in which it could have been suborned but I will leave the verdict to the then chairman of the defunct National Electoral Commission of Nigeria (NECON), Professor Okon Uya, he suggested this year before the elections that all elections conducted in Nigeria since 1922 including that which he presided over in 1993 were manipulated [2]. See note at the end of the blog.

What could have been could have been, Nigeria might have returned to democracy since 1993, the hopes and aspirations of the people could have been realised through the leadership of a man that transcended the stereotypes that defined Nigeria, we could have been a viable member of the BRICS, the ignominy of the Sani Abacha years might never have happened but that all belongs to a parallel universe of time and space; we live in the reality of things that happen and really affect us.

Annulment versus result

It is arguable that the elections of June 12, 1993 are the gold-standard of credible elections to be conducted in Nigeria and one must give allowances to that notion but it needs to be compared with the elections just past, identified by the date April 16, 2011.

The 2011 elections were not perfect, but they did achieve a higher scale of freeness, fairness and credibility beyond many that have been conducted in Nigeria before, the ones in 2007 being the worst ever.

They will also turn out to be the costliest every conducted; that is the price that had to be paid to turn things around and deliver elections that represent as much as possible the will of the people; most of all, despite its failings, it delivered a result that many will find difficult to dispute even though there are many that are disaffected as much as there was voter apathy in many regions too but on average a higher turnout (the lowest was in Ogun State with 28%) than in 1993 (which Professor Okon Uya said was just 13% on average.).

Could have been better

It is important to recognise that the modified open ballot system adopted was a maturation on the Option A4 system, it allowed people to secretly cast their votes thereby avoiding coercion and menace that would have forced voters to queue up openly in support of people they did not believe in and the count was done openly with the results for the count posted at the polling stations and then passed up a chain of custody through collation centres.

Theoretically, every means for having the most credible elections were there, participation was also widespread with the youth representing a burgeoning constituency, technology came to play though it requires more refinement – there is a lot that could be improved upon and the present-day INEC is working on those matters.

Now, this is not to make June 12 insignificant by any means, but it would be unfortunate if we all based our realities on a mirage when April 16 represents the best progress we have made on the democratic experiment in Nigeria so far.

Turn the page of history

In 2011, June 12, 1993 needs to assume its place in Nigerian history, the mourning over the death of democracy and self-determination that it represented has to go; a child born on that day will now be eligible to vote in Nigeria; the clamour about it will make no sense to that child apart from sounding like some fable, a memory, some story and part of Nigerian history as it should be taught.

We need to stop singing the dirges of the yesteryears and arrive at the reality of today; Nigeria cannot be governed by the standards, viewpoints, hopes or expectations of 1993 anymore, the world has moved on and changed; Nigeria is in 2011, it is time for us to seize our present and take our country forward.

The results [3] of the April 16, 2011 elections showed that we do have a national party despite our misgivings about its predominance and its machinations with a number of regionally strong oppositions; it showed a Christian Southerner making in-roads into the presumably impregnable North capturing the 25% threshold necessary across the whole country rather than in some regions; it represented a sea-change that had its Genesis in 1993 which has now been eclipsed.

Give June 12 a decent burial

June 12, 1993 was dead on arrival, a stillborn, a sad narrative, the low point of our democratic yearnings because that the expectations we had were completely snuffed out and it produced no result, the fact is we do not have certified returns and results for that election and that is final, it should not be a subject of supposition or speculation, there is no legally recognisable data to extrapolate the assumptions thrown around like the truth.

It is time to give June 12 a decent burial, build it a mausoleum, if you like, with all the ceremony that can be accorded its significance in Nigerian history, but we need to leave the graveyard of dashed democratic dreams; the dead cannot continue to walk amongst the living like a zombie.

Nigeria with a majority of its population under 35 indicates that majority have no real connection with June 12, 1993 to have been able to influence that situation; the more reason why they should give more credence to the elections they participated in to bring lasting change to Nigeria rather than become cultish worshippers of some ethereal ideal; a Utopian Nigeria that gets trotted out for occasion and slovenly aspiration.

We need to make the best of what 2011 gave us – a new hope, imperfect as it might be, it is a lot better than what 1993 ever delivered.

Sources

[1] Prime Minister Tafawa Balewa Independence day's speech - October 1, 1960

[2] The Sun News On-line | Every election since 1922 has been manipulated –Okon Uya, ex-NECON boss

[3] Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review IX - Analysing the Presidential Results

Note: Okon Uya did not preside over the June 12, 1993 elections; rather, he took over from Humprey Nwosu who was dismissed after the elections were annulled.

Nigeria: Dragging Iwu to the court of the Twelfth of June

June the Twelfth lives

It would appear June the Twelfth still has a few more lives in it before it gets consigned to history. In fact, it can never be completely consigned to history because it comes every year and someone somewhere would find reason to commemorate the day.

For Nigeria, it remains that one seminal moment when the freest and fairest elections were conducted in the country, the only sad thing being the will of the people was aborted before full recognition was made of the winner.

This being the 15^th anniversary of the event, the chairman of the then electoral commission which was known as the National Electoral Commission, Professor Humphrey Nwosu launched his tome about that election.

Titled Laying the Foundation for Nigeria’s Democracy: My Account of June 12, 1993 Presidential Election and its Annulment – a mouthful of a book title not yet available on Amazon, the reviews beyond the pre-launch hype show us nothing particularly new or worthy of news – one reviewer calls it beautiful nonsense.

Boos and all

In any case, at the launch, the guests of honour that included General Ibrahim Babangida, the President who annulled the election, though absolved by the professor and his successor Chief Ernest Shonekan were not present to grace the occasion.

When the name of the current chairman of Inept National Electoral Commission, Professor Maurice Iwu’s name was mentioned at the event, it was booed – perhaps the chairman thought it prudent to attend the occasion lest he be derided.

Anyway, rather than concentrate on trying to avoid more controversy, INEC through its spokesperson has decided to take up the defence of its head by making the following assertions.

The two electoral commissions were different.

One operated under a military junta in 1993 and the other under a civilian administration in 2007.

The annulment of the results of the first almost plunged the country into chaos, the more recent one was a successful transition from one civilian regime to another.

The comparisons are baseless and we should concentrate on the successes of the 2007 elections and work on strengthening the democratic process.

Since Professor Iwu was not at the event he could not have been booed.

Debunking the assertions

The assertions are interesting and quite informative because, whilst the elections happened under different circumstances, it did not mean that the clearly expressed will of the people should be subsumed in annulment or incompetence such that the fairness of the 2007 elections remains questionable.

The elections of 2007 could well have plunged the country into chaos, but the death of 300-plus citizens during those elections was 300-plus lives too many.

The comparison should and must be made to determine if Nigeria has really progressed or not and the verdict in terms of the electoral process seems to tick the negative boxes.

It can only be a delusion for INEC to continue to contend that they conducted very successful elections in April 2007, but maybe we are missing a point that I would elaborate on later on.

Then a man does not have to be present at an event to acknowledge anytime he is booed, a name mentioned carries just as much weight as the presence of the person, if that person is well known and has a reputation the booing audience fully acknowledge – there is no journalistic slight in reporting that a person has been booed or praised, regardless of if that person is present or not.

Transition was the only goal

It would appear that the goals of success INEC defined for itself were not for the conduct of free and fair elections; that was not their purpose at all – from the statements, they were doing the impossible – that impossible act was the transition from one civilian regime to another.

Nobody mentions that it was the same ruling party that had literally politicised the commission such that it took the courts to restrain the commission from blatant unconstitutional infringements.

It would have been a greater achievement if the transition was from a ruling party to the opposition but the numbers did not look that way in the end.

However, if the standard of success was only predicated on a successful transition to a hand-picked invalid who seems to be grappling with the levers of power without successfully moving the vehicle more than an inch – well, it would have been utterly naïve of us to expect the elections to be free, fair and absent of irregularities.

The judgement of June the Twelfth

Professor Iwu should by now have developed thick enough skin not to be ruffled by any comments about him, but June the Twelfth brings his stewardship into stark relief as a sycophantic neophyte, oblivious of ethical demands of his brief and in denial about his rank incompetence.

This was exemplified in still having electioneering documents in South Africa 24 hours before a major election – that he still holds office beggars belief, but the woes of the challenge of the President’s election have to pass, then the buffoon can be kicked out and pensioned off in ignominy.

Professor Iwu, when dragged into the court of June the Twelfth is found wanting and judged a failure but it is a more foolish man who kicks against the goads.

As for INEC, maybe sometime in the future, free and fair can enter their vocabulary, but now, transition trumps a decent electoral process – the result of which can be seen the turmoil of Kenya and now Zimbabwe – it is a real shame, indeed, it is.

Nigeria: June the Twelfth

Present in spirit

15 years ago on this day, I was not in Nigeria to participate in a democratic movement that we all hoped would change Nigeria.

A man so rich, so successful, so garrulous that he was bold enough to say no paranormal activity that creates destitution can survive in the midst of his wealth was about to take the spoils.

My heart and mind was at one with fellow Nigerians in the hope that the changes would occur that would make life better for them at home and things easier for those in Diaspora who were busy working overtime to repair the generalised bad reputation of Nigeria and Nigerians seen abroad.

I felt the pain, the agony greater than disappointment and despair when half the results were released and then the whole election was annulled.

Not fair, not just

Those elections were supposed to be fairest and freest elections ever conducted in Nigeria and for that reason until another election is conducted in Nigeria that rivals the standard of those conducted in 1993, June the Twelfth would remain significant in the minds of any fair-minded Nigerian.

Until we have a situation where a fairly and justly conducted democratic process clearly indicates the real choices of the electorate as expressed at the ballot box, June the Twelfth would be the benchmark.

Until the truth about why June the Twelfth is atoned for by more than an apology by General Ibrahim Babangida, but by exposing all the stakeholders and malevolent instigators whose ulterior motives are yet not scrutinised in the grand disenfranchisement of the most populous country in Africa – June the Twelfth remains a festering wound the Nigerian democratic psyche.

Not so soon already

So, General Abdulsalami Abubakar cannot now advise us to forget June the Twelfth because there is so much unfinished work to be done and realised.

We as Nigerians have been short-changed too much by rotten leaders who would prefer their legacies be fictional fairy tales of things being so wonderful – well, whoever has held power must be accountable for their tenure.

They should also be ready to answer questions about their conduct in government, however, this must not affect the everyday business of government, but a properly constituted quasi-judicial body must attend to the matters of the past so that we are not haunted by those mistakes in the future.

How to learn from the past

Lessons need to be learnt about our past especially that of the Twelfth of June, we can only lessons from analysis in detail so as not to commit those mistakes in the future.

The time for pulling the carpet of these matters has passed, the time for revering leaders who have not been audited for their stewardship in the light of the state of the lives of a majority of Nigerians has passed.

The time for the truth about June the Twelfth is now and it is important for building a viable future for our country – if there be any date or datum for the celebration of democracy in Nigeria, it should be June the Twelfth and no other day.

Reflections of others on June the Twelfth

Chxta’s World

NaijaEcash

Thy Glory O Nigeria