Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review XIII - Ideas for Electoral Reform

As we savour the returns

As the election season ends in Nigeria it is important to lay out in some form a whole series of ideas for electoral reform to improve on the experiences we had for the elections in April 2011.

It goes without saying that despite the view of cynics and sceptics about the elections a lot was done to make them freer, fairer and more credible than any we have had before. Even the much heralded 1993 elections were said to be manipulated [1] as averred by the then chairman of the defunct National Electoral Commission of Nigeria (NECON), Professor Okon Uya.

The length of the season

It is however the prerogative of those who are aggrieved by this electoral season to avail themselves of the tribunal process with a quest for justice devoid of desperation and considerate of the fact that Nigeria must not be held back primarily for the satisfaction of the ambitions of the few.

These are however the matters that should become part of the discussion for electoral reform and implementation before the end of the next legislative term.

The electoral season should span at least a 12 month period allowing for voter registration, register inspection, party registration, candidate registration, campaign season, voting, results publication and expedited electoral dispute resolution.

Reusable voter registration

It is unlikely that Nigeria is ready for an electronic voting system; however, the voter registration needs to be amalgamated with the National Identity Card Scheme with added biometric information and a fixing with local government area based on the residential address within 6 months of the elections.

Consideration must be given to chipping the identity card and probably adding RFID data that stores allocated Polling Unit which can be updated if the voter changes their address at the local electoral office.

Voters only need validate their registration and eligibility to vote in what should be termed registration clearance months allowing for new voters to be added, the dead to be eliminated, circumstances to be updated and so on.

Competence over age

In terms of eligibility for office, consideration should be given to at least the age barriers to elective office by at least 5 years, the talent pool of the youth who in other endeavours are competent, able and successful are unfairly excluded by reason of age from elective office as political jobbers hog positions indefinitely.

Considering the pool of talent in the Nigerian population term limits should be set on all elective offices to allow others to contribute to nation building, it may also foster better mentoring rather than godfatherism and the nepotism that currently plagues the system.

Term limits

No one should have the exclusive inclination to think no other Nigerian can try for office and possibly perform better, after a set number of terms, two for executive office and a maximum of three for legislative office the said politicians have to give way.

The candidates for office should be known within a minimum of 90 days before the elections allowing for INEC to adequately inform the electorate of the choices they have. All nomination disputes must be completed at least 60 days before the elections.

INEC should have the right to penalise the abuse of equal access to media and resources to engage with the public doing the campaign process. Part of the sanctions that INEC can use should include barring the offending party’s candidate from contesting the elections.

Voting and sanctions

The modified open ballot system should be retained however the reporting process should have the paper trail as well as the use of mobile data transfers from the Polling Unit direct to the INEC headquarters.

Where electoral malpractice has been discovered and fully investigated to identify the culprits, the responsible party will forfeit the votes tallied, if that election remains valid, in the case there the election needs to be rescheduled, the offending party will forfeit the right to present a candidate for the reschedule election and where the offence is egregious the said party under whatever guise should be made to forfeit the right to present a candidate for the next two elections at the level when the crime was committed.

This means a party might forfeit the right for presenting candidates for the State House of Assembly, House of Representatives, The Senate, Governorship or Presidency.

Named persons for each party should be held criminally responsible for electoral offences committed by their party members and they by the strength of the law should not be able to abdicate their responsibilities.

Sanctions like this should greatly minimise incidents of electoral rigging.

Where reports of intimidation, harassment, bias, tampering or observer access is restricted, INEC should err on the side of fairness and make results from such locations tentative pending investigation with the likelihood of those results being voided.

Dispute resolution

After the results are announced and contestants find need to contest the results, all disputes must be completed with 365 days of the election under dispute.

No incumbent whose election is being contested should serve in electoral office longer than one-quarter of the complete term of office at which point the dispute must have been resolved or a new election should hold.

If the incumbent is found to have engaged in electoral misconduct, that person will not be eligible to contest in the new election and the party the person represents should not be able to present a candidate for that election for the next two terms.

The measures have to be draconian with effective deterrents to ensure all parties and their officials play by the rules. The civil courts with respect to electoral matters should work in concert with INEC to bolster its independence and foster a surer democracy by upholding the letter of the law to its full remit.

Miscellaneous reform issues

The use of ad-hoc staff should be encouraged but INEC should expedite all means of payment and provide the maximum security for all engaged staff.

An electoral recall process should be set up to test a vote of confidence in the elected office at mid-term, if the incumbent is unseated the newly elected person shall only serve out the remaining period of the term and have to contest to retain the office.

Source

[1] The Sun News On-line | Every election since 1922 has been manipulated –Okon Uya, ex-NECON boss

Reviews written about the elections

Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review I

Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review II - New Election Dates

Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review III - Who votes on Saturday.

Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review IV - Part I to Voting

Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review IV - Part II - We can

Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review V

Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review VI - Report to Prevent Rigging

Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review VII - Change!

Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review VIII - A President-Elect

Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review IX - Analysing the Presidential Results

Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review X - The North

Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review XI - A functioning democracy?

Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review XII - Altogether acceptable

Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review XII - Altogether acceptable

Looking at the elections

With the conclusion of the elections on the 28th of April 2011, one now has the opportunity to give a general review of the conduct and the results of what was historic in Nigerian history.

So many opinions have been proffered by many about what these elections mean for Nigeria’s future, however, critically, compared to elections held before; these are probably the freest, fairest and most credible ever administered in Nigeria.

It does not mean they were perfect, they were not and they were far from ideal but a considerable improvement time and again at each time that people offered to elect their representatives.

There are a few more results to be released, some inconclusive results and supplemental elections to hold in certain districts but the elections in the main are over.

Where we started

The newly reorganised Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) had just about 10 months to pull off this turn-around in electoral fortunes that had long been besmirched with incompetence, mismanagement, fraud and corruption.

The voters registration exercise was first a logistical nightmare that INEC attempted to refocus and manage towards the successful registration of over 73 million voters.

The political landscape was a bit fraught for the opposition which for the last 4 years had remained majorly regional and had only made superficial changes to present a national front such that the merging of the opposition parties would still have been a piddling challenge to the ruling party, however, acolytes of these parties harboured bizarre levels of optimism that had no basis in realistic opportunity for success.

The structures implemented

In earlier reviews, it could be said the that theoretically INEC had put in place a whole series of checks and balances to foster credible elections along with engaging the voting public in participating in ensuring their votes counted.

There were loopholes and flaws in the process which need to be improved on in future elections whilst those who now find fault with the system are best advised to avail themselves of the processes in place for the aggrieved.

Social networking featured greatly in the observance and monitoring of the elections, some of the decisions taken by INEC to review the results and reconsider outcomes came from evidence gathered by non-INEC personnel.

Twitter served as both a useful informative platform as well as one in which reputations will be made or tarnished as it was also a vehicle for propaganda, rumour, untruths, lies and misinformation.

The parties and their options

There were three sets of elections in order for the National Assembly, the Presidency and State representation that included the governors and the state assemblies. In the first only three parties really challenged for positions and those were the ruling PDP, then ACN and ANPP with CPC, APGA and LP bringing up the rear.

In the Presidential elections CPC presented the greater challenge winning a good number of states in the far Northern Nigeria only to end up seizing a state for the governorship in the North-Central region where it lagged the ruling party a week earlier.

It goes without saying that the CPC was created mainly as a vehicle for the presidential aspirations of a messianic symbol and not much else, Nigeria would have been plunged into a stalemate of sots to have a CPC president having to work with elected representatives of other parties holding different principles, agendas and motives.

Much as Nigeria requires competence and probity in leadership, it mostly needs the apparatus of government that is not hamstrung with sapping all goodwill necessary to get the job done – the opposition was poorly organised and ill-prepared to take on the machine of the ruling party nationally and so we have the results that leave the ruling party quite dominant national whilst somewhat weakened in some regional areas.

The election low-point

The violence that arose after the presidential elections were unfortunate and poorly addressed by all those who had leadership positions to contain and ameliorate the enveloping crisis.

The Commanded-in-Chief should have been apprised of the possibilities of unrest and put in place measures to pre-empt the situation and once it had begun, he should have moved swiftly to deploy security forces to quell the problems before it lead to the unnecessary destruction of property and even more the loss of innocent lives prominent amongst which were members of the National Youth Service Corps who had been called into the greater national service of being ad-hoc staff of INEC.

At the same time, it exposed the difference between a general being able to command an army failing in battle as opposed to a messianic leader who could not control a mob that failed to attain its aims.

That became the low-point of elections that at one time were being applauded as one of the best ever conducted in Nigeria raising the esteem of the country internationally.

Moving on from this

It is the prerogative of those who care to maintain a cynical and curmudgeonly view of the elections and the continued dominance of the ruling party which is unfortunate for some.

However, we are presented with another 4 years of governance that have been tested by a more credible electioneering process of whom we are within rights to demand accountability, action and responsiveness to the needs of the electorate.

It is incumbent on the opposition to form a broader based national profile which should be evidenced in the performance of their elected representatives, but the hope of all Nigerians is that anyone with a mandate respects the privilege and gets to work for the people regardless of the party they are representing.

The foundation is laid

Nigeria is a project in flux and constant pressures of conflict, change and possible division, we Nigerians all have stewardship of a country given to us by our founding fathers to hold in trust for those who follow after us, to whom we should bestow a better, more prosperous, thriving and growingly assertive nation ready to take its place as the Giant of Africa and the land of opportunity for all regardless of circumstances of birth or fortunes of life.

The foundation laid by these elections are starting point, they still need underpinning, some reinforcements and viable structures to home the flourishing of Nigeria’s potential, it would be shame to squander the next four years in indifference, apathy or destructive criticism of those who have power today to make a difference in people’s lives.

The pursuit of justice must continue, however, not to the detriment of allowing systems to function effectively and efficiently as we demand and expect that they should.

If there is a greater call to national duty, it remains the ability and wiliness to put the nation before self for the good of the nation and the people at home and abroad.

We need to believe in the Nigeria that we have and work to build it into a greater nation.

Reference material

Where we were 4 years ago Before we lose the Nigerian elections gracefully

The comments about the results are derived from the following sources:

The INEC Nigeria homepage offers a summary of the validated results of the elections.

Punch on the Web: Election Portal | Results of 2011 Presidential and other elections

Home : Nigeria Election Coalition presents an another analysis of the results announced.

Reviews written about the elections

Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review I

Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review II - New Election Dates

Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review III - Who votes on Saturday.

Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review IV - Part I to Voting

Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review IV - Part II - We can

Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review V

Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review VI - Report to Prevent Rigging

Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review VII - Change!

Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review VIII - A President-Elect

Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review IX - Analysing the Presidential Results

Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review X - The North

Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review XI - A functioning democracy?

Other issues that arose concerning the elections

Nigeria: A Primer on INEC Elections in April 2011 – Originally published at NigeriansTalk.Org – A compendium of information regarding the elections.

Nigeria: Table of INEC Electoral Chain of Custody – Documents the paper trail put in place to handle the elections and manage the results.

Nigeria: In Support of Attahiru Jega of INEC – Reviewing the mammoth task that INEC faced in trying to offer free, fair and credible elections in Nigeria this year.

Thought Picnic: My Nigerian Philosophy – What informs my stance on Nigerian issues today.

Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review XI - A functioning democracy?

The quest for a credible opposition

This must have been one of the funniest blogs [1] I have read in the Economist which started with the line-dancing equivalent of handling a hat and ended with a very serious message. “Democracy does not function without a serious, credible and decent opposition.”

That hit home so hard that I crafted and posted the following tweet. "Democracy does not function without a serious, credible and decent opposition." @TheEconomist #NigeriaDecides to do without one.

The gubernatorial elections were conducted in 24 States yesterday with Kaduna and Bauchi States scheduled to hold on the Thursday, the other 10 states [2] (Adamawa, Anambra, Bayelsa, Cross River, Edo, Ekiti, Kogi, Ondo, Osun and Sokoto) were not contested still having partial terms to run.

However, the elections for the State Houses of Assembly in 34 States but Kaduna and Bauchi were held as well as the 19 Senate and 48 House of Representative seats which were postponed from the 1^st tranche that held on the 9^th of April.

The ruling party rules wide

Nigeria struggles at being a multi-party state with the pervasive representation of the ruling PDP which before these elections had 26 state governors [3] out of 36, 85 out of 109 Senators and 260 out of 360 members in the House of Representatives in the National Assembly [4].

The footprint of the ruling was big and widespread; there was no opposition party or coalition of opposition parties that had the fleeting chance of overturning these thumping majorities.

The best that could be hoped for was to work on unseating the ruling party in many places and thereby reduce their influence in all spheres of Nigerian life but the presidency was still that of PDP to keep for the next 4 years.

A frustrated CPC President

In the presidential elections help just over a week ago, the CPC party mounted a good challenge [5] but technically, to have expected to overthrow PDP at the ballot box in 2011 was close to a pipe dream fuelled with herbs.

CPC, an offshoot of ANPP, had no political representation whatsoever before these elections and having gained some seats in the National Assembly a CPC President of the Federation of Nigeria would have had the almost impossible task of run his agenda through a hostile and aggressively counterintuitive assembly.

The CPC President might will attempt to rule by executive decree and fiat to keep things going with such provisions exist but it would have been a throwback to our old military times as a frustrated president with all his good intentions but lack of powers of persuasion toward a strident legislature would have found and Nigeria would have been so badly served.

Fixing wrong aims

A leading politician needs a working majority but also an effective opposition such that radical reforms would require the persuasion of the some of the opposition through compromise, consensus or deals – that is politics.

In essence, the opposition parties for the 2011 should have had the strategy of extending their reach to a national presence rather than their regional predominance; a feat that they have hardly pulled off and it goes without saying that parties would need to merge to offer Nigeria the semblance of a serious, credible and decent opposition.

The elections

It is against this backdrop that the election violence after the presidential elections was unfortunate and that might well affect that ability for the opposition parties to gain new acreage as people out of fear and terror might have stayed away allowing for the status quo of Nigerian elections to thrive like ballot box snatching, intimidation of voters and observers alike and incredulous results.

The goodwill and praise that mounted after the first two Saturdays of elections seems to have dissipated into fear, acrimony, death and destruction, the fallout has yet to be fully appreciated but its effects will be far-reaching.

Many of the ad-hoc INEC staff comprised of NYSC members failed to show up for duty because they did not receive convincing assurances of safety and security, where they did, some were bullied, harassed, beaten and possibly came to great harm.

Bombs went off in the North and in the South-East there was major unrest whilst in the South-West some political big-wigs strutted around when they should not have and there were signs of apathy again.

The turnout when the figures are tallied might well be lower as reports of voting without accreditation were made on the Twitter hashtag of #NigeriaDecides.

Sitting back

Meanwhile, INEC is yet to declare results for 18 out of 90 Senate seats and 78 out of the 312 House of Representative seats contested on the 9^th of April, it shows how much energy has been expended in the presidential elections to the detriment of the elections that really do matter for making an effective opposition.

The next few days would determine what Nigeria has really decided will be its government for next four years, there is really no case to be made to successfully overturn the presidential election results but there is a bigger case to be made for the emergence initially of an opposition coalition of parties with a national representation and hopefully the evolution of that into a working political party where first and foremost the country is put before self.

Sources

[1] The 2012 Republican primary: The field thins | The Economist

[2] 234Next | UPDATE: The April 26 elections

[3] List of Nigerian state governors - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

[4] Politics of Nigeria - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

[5] Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review IX - Analysing the Presidential Results

Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review X - The North

The divides are not there

The Presidential Elections this year afforded us the opportunity to revisit the accepted narratives about Nigeria to see if they still fetch true or they are norms that have been perpetrated without question and analysis.

The situation was such that the abuse of numbers allowed the perpetuation of the narrative and the labels that continually divide Nigeria along regional or religious fault lines.

However, the more one looks at the voting patterns the more it appears these defaults are ready for the scrapheap and a reeducation is needed to understand the complexities of our society rather than subscribe to the simplistic rhetoric that gets exploited for ulterior motives and gains by unscrupulous politicians, clerics and power brokers pretending to be community leaders.

One party does unite

Having performed an analysis of the results [1] of the Presidential elections, one is at pains to continually accept this notion of a North-South divide nor is the oft-touted Muslim dominated North as true as we are made to believe else how would there be clashes between religionists.

Beyond buttressing the case for a united Nigeria what seems to have been lost in the accepted narrative is an understanding of the dynamics of Northern Nigeria.

The real divisions

The BBC in a piece about a divided Nigeria [2] some 2 weeks ago laid out a number of geo-political and socio-economic maps of Nigeria highlighting the divisions in Nigeria. The wealth [Graphic], health [Graphic] and literacy [Graphic] maps are what seem to define the real divisions in Nigeria.

The way it appears, the North has been left behind and successive leaderships in the North have failed to rise to the aspirations of the people as a feudal system appears to thrive making the people a ready mob in the hands of unscrupulous power brokers.

Where the North lags

This view is gains more credence as Salisu Suleiman writes in his blog titled Contextualizing protests in Northern Nigeria [3] where he notes that the post-election violence did target the so-called leaders of the North and I quote, “the political, military and business elite as well the traditional institutions that have held the region back and truncated any attempt to educate the people and free them from the yolk of illiteracy and poverty.”

One can find no greater indictment of leaders in that region who have done little for their people locally and then seek to bring that thinking to the national front.

By the time Suleiman lists the issues of education, healthcare, agriculture, corruption and self-serving leadership you begin to get a good picture of why the North appears to be a powder-keg of discontent ready to go off spontaneously when the possible promise of better opportunity appears to be snuffed out.

The hopes of the North dashed?

Tatalo Alamu who writes for The Nation newspaper on Sundays, in a piece that was written on the 3^rd of April, 2011, titled The messiah and the militia [4], Tatalo frames his discourse in almost Apocalyptic prose starting with the capturing the feel of a typical CPC political rally with Muhammadu Buhari as the flag-bearer, “This is not an exultant crowd waiting for a political emancipator. This is a traumatized mob waiting for a messiah.”

The summary is Buhari appears to represent for these people the escape required by his people from the clutches of leaders before who never addressed the issues that kept them far behind in the Nigeria stakes for progress and development.

His inability to assume power would first be expressed in disappointment, then despair and everything else that follows – there was something quite prophetic about that piece because 15 days on, the hopes were dashed, the numbers did not add up and the Buhari or the Messiah they had hoped will come to their deliverance could not ascend the throne of the kingdom.

What the North needs now

There is no doubt that Northern Nigeria needs visionary leadership unhindered by the smokescreens of religious piety masquerading as a society at ease with itself. They need a new political class of selfless people ready to serve their communities and raise all the standards of living that would give Nigeria the better tale of a nation united in purpose and progress.

The question is whether the Federal Government can spearhead change and local governments would be less the vehicles of promoting serfdom and feudalism in a place that is deserving of a lot more than it has been saddled with for decades.

It is to the shame of leaders of the North that we find ourselves writing about these issues today.

Sources

[1] Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review IX - Analysing the Presidential Results

[2] BBC News - Nigeria: A nation divided

[3] Suleiman's Blog: Contextualizing protests in Northern Nigeria

[4] The Nation - The messiah and the militia in Google cache or as Google Docs archive

Twitter tweet - Northern #NigeriaDecides narrative - The Votes http://j.mp/enh5Aa the Messiah http://j.mp/i0yWnN the leaders http://j.mp/e7aH7o

Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review IX - Analysing the Presidential Results

Where we are

There is every need to conduct a thorough analysis of the distribution of votes for the 2011 Presidential Elections held in Nigeria on Saturday, the 16^th of April, 2011.

In about 48 hours after the elections the Independent National Electoral Commission had fully collated the results and announced a winner, Dr. Goodluck Ebele Jonathan of the ruling PDP party.

Now, the ruling party has been in power since 1999 and for the previous elections there have been irregularities bordering on the abominable that left Nigeria in shame, voiceless and disgraced as unable to conduct credible elections, talk less of them being free and fair.

Credible enough

With these elections, they are acceptably free, generally fair and credible enough according to many observers and though the opposition parties appear to have their misgivings, those will need to be tested in court if they are to shift any of the results in any considerable direction.

As the numbers came through, the situation was hijacked by different interests and used to promote agendas inimical to the well-being of Nigeria and Nigerians. People were ready to purvey all sorts of assumptions about tribalism, religion, region and every differentiating element that gives substance that atrocious idea of some Sovereign National Conference.

Nigeria will endure beyond us

In 2014, Nigeria as an entity will be 100 years old, there are few Nigerian living that saw that day, as an independent country, it has existed for 50 years apart from the years of the civil war between 1967 and 1970; we are now 41 years beyond that time with a majority of our estimated 150 million citizens being under the age of 41.

In essence, we need to find ways to unite, co-exist, collaborate and band together as the nation that preceded many of us and make it work as the entity known as Nigeria and assume with pride the identity of Nigerian.

As far as the elections are concerned, we need to debunk a number of fallacies before they take root and destroy our common purpose as we resolve to make Nigeria great and progress towards achieving its potential.

Arbitrary Nigerian Divisions

I have used source material from the Nigeria Election Coalition website [1] and worked on it to present the data that I discuss in this blog. The graphic beneath this blog supports my analysis.

I will first deal with the notion that the Nigeria was split in half with a North-South divide in terms of votes between PDP and CPC.

Nigeria is divided into 6 geo-political regions [2] namely, North-Central (NC), North-East (NE), North-West (NW), South-East (SE), South-South (SS) and South-West (SW).

Majorities and thresholds

In terms of majorities per state, CPC took 12 states concentrated in the NC, NE and NW regions, ACN took 2 states in the SW region and PDP took 23 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) in 5 regions except the NW.

However, in terms if exceeding the constitutional requirement for over 25% of the votes cast in the states, CPC got 17 states including the FCT in 3 regions where they already have their majorities, ACN got 4 states in the SW region and PDP took 33 states including the FCT in all 6 regions.

In the NE region where the PDP had 3 states under 25%, the PDP still made an average of 34.54% for that region compared to CPC’s 57.63, in the NW where PDP was always beaten into second place; PDP came away with 32.13% compared to CPC’s 60.26%.

When the whole northern regions of NC, NE and NW are taken together, PDP takes 42.66% of the vote to CPC’s 49.61% where they are supposedly strong.

Between regions and nations

According the Machiavellian psephologists, the south is probably the PDP’s stronghold with PDP taking the over 94% in the SE and SW regions of 11 states except Edo State where they bucked the trend with 87.28% and this was the odd state where CPC managed a rather high 2.86%.

CPC had no showing in the South with 0.37, 0.89% and 4.76% for the SE, SS and SW regions respectively and this compares quite unfavourably with PDP’s 98.00%, 95.97% and 57.80% in the same regions. ACN which apparently has the SW region as its stronghold only managed 34.38%.

It goes without saying that CPC is a stronger regional party in the NE and NW geo-political regions but it does not leave PDP far behind in the North as it does not even make a respectable appearance in the South.

One can conclude that PDP offers the promise of a united Nigeria than any of its rivals as it has a good national spread with trouncing majorities in its strongholds of the South.

The warped notion of a divided Nigeria does not pass the muster if viewed through the prism of PDP and it means ACN and CPC have a lot of work to do make inroads in regions outside their strongholds.

What religious divide?

Whilst the traditional Muslim north is concentrated in the NE and NW regions the CPC takes 58.95% of the vote to 33.34% for the PDP – maybe a beating in political terms but PDP is quite visible without doubt.

So, there again, we find that the religious divide when viewed from the CPC perspective is there but not as stark as to make it a case for Nigeria’s division along religious lines.

I would suggest that Nigeria is probably more united than we ever thought it was under one party and it shows what other parties need to do, they need to seek a common platform, merge, consolidate, compromise and work on a consensus or the ruling party will forever rule Nigeria in perpetuity.

Whether there are Nigerians in opposition parties able to put country before self remains to be seen but there is evidence to the contrary.

Enthusiasm and apathy abound

The highest number of voters came out in the NW region with 10,800,075 people representing a 53.75% turnout, the highest percentage turnout was in the SS region with 67.96% representing 6,339,316 voters.

The SW seems to be the most apathy-ridden with just 32.90% voter turnout adding up to 4,613,712 voters and a classic case of the SW abdicating its civic responsibility in a matter of national importance.

All other regions had over a 50% voter turnout apart from the NC region with 46.28%. The state with the most registered voters was Lagos State with 6,108,069 people but only 1,945,044 bothered to get up, the most voters came from Kano State with 2,673,228 voting out of a registered 5,027,297 voters.

The state most excited about this tranche of Nigeria Decides was Bayelsa State, from where the incumbent President hails with a 86.61% voter turnout compared to 28.01% from Ogun State which has suffered the throes of despicable megalomania in the hands of an ex-President, a departing governor and the Speaker of the House of Representatives – the melee must have turned people completely off politics and that is a shame.

Understandable grievances

When you look at the kind of turnouts across the states and especially in the North where the numbers were higher but hardly reflected in the same inclinations of the South, the voters might well be aggrieved if the numbers across the nation do not go their way when you consider their enthusiasm, their willingness and readiness to participate in electing a new leader.

If the bulk of voters were in the North, they would have expected their votes to make the majority for whoever takes the spoils for the Presidency but their patron never crossed the rivers to the south and so the fault lies with that party rather than the people.

The ruling party is ready to rule

People might have all sorts of opinions about the ruling party and it is not one that I have found much inclination to support but the reality in Nigeria is no other party is making inroads across the nation to give the ruling party a real run for their money.

The opposition parties were ill-prepared, poorly managed and lacking in national purpose, the best they could hope for is reduce the regional footprints of the ruling party, it was a rather big ask to expect any of the opposition parties to unseat the ruling party in a presidential contest in 2011.

If others must rule

I would hope the opposition parties work to seize a number of gubernatorial seats from the ruling party, dominate a few more State Assemblies to bring them closer to the people and take the bigger share of the remaining 19 Senate and 48 House of Representative seats to be contested on the 26^th of April, 2011.

In closing, the results show a nation that is one and whole, strong and united, sound and able to choose a leader that we hope will really use the mandate he has received in credible elections to change Nigeria for the better.

I believe in a place called Nigeria, what say you?

Sources

[1] Presidential Election Results: Nigeria Election Coalition:

[2] Answers.com - List of Nigeria geo political zones

Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review VIII - A President-Elect

Done and dusted

A new Nigeria just hatched out of its egg in the last 48 hours wherein the presidential elections took place and all results announced with the declaration of a winner.

As it stands, Dr. Goodluck Ebele Jonathan has been declared the winner of the elections having scored the highest number of votes and met the threshold of attaining 25% of votes cast in more than two-thirds of the states of the Nigerian federation and the Federal Capital Territory.

There is scope for analysis of the numbers as people draw conclusions and assumptions from the results but this is a time when Nigeria needs to present unity rather than division, resolve rather than prevarication, progress rather than stagnation and optimism rather than cynicism.

They are credible

Despite the misgivings of some and the facetiousness of those who will never be pleased no matter how hard we tried, these elections were by far the freest, the fairest, the most credible and the best involved people have been in deciding who leads them.

Whilst the turnout was low in some areas, what mattered was those who decided and took the opportunity to vote and that was just a shade over 50% of the electorate. It would have been nice to have a situation very much like Australia where voting is compulsory but that requires a lot more technology to implement.

Nigeria has taken a number of baby-steps that are leaps and bounds beyond the rotten elections of 2007, we proved we could do it and do it right.

The refusal of opposition parties to endorse the results does not invalidate the will of the people, it simply represents a difference of opinion and that is all.

Commend and thank

The incumbent President has to be commended for giving the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) the independence to do its work, he presented the scope for credible elections.

Professor Attahiru Jega as chairman of INEC has presented any Project Manager worth their salt a case-study in turning around a failing situation that was fast becoming an embarrassing farce into a remarkable success of managing time, plans, people and resources.

Employing members of the National Youth Corps Service (NYSC) as INEC staff took the scope for manipulating the elections out of the locally connected civil and public service staff and put it in the hands of those who in service of their nation could be assumed to be unbiased, impartial and selfless – some were suborned but that was to be expected.

Professor Jega found a way of delivering credible elections in a generally corrupt environment by making the people stakeholders in protecting their votes and by having the whole process conducted at the polling units with administration only pertaining to the collation of results.

We own our elections

The entreaty to voters to observe, record and report from their polling units meant that discrepancies could be traced back through the paper trail and submitted reports to eliminate electoral malpractice everywhere. It was the right thing to do, INEC could not be everywhere but the people to whom the voting pertained could be and help to ensure INEC is fully apprised of developments in almost 120,000 polling units.

With the appointment of collation officers for each state, these being eminent and leading academics, Professor Jega shared the burden of reputation and integrity because each of these collation officers would have demanded to see the paper trail, scrupulously and meticulously handled the data and no doubt double-checked the tallies before putting their names to the business of staking their hard earned reputations on announcing the results.

It was a triumph of choosing the right people carefully and creating a critical mass that could only result in credible elections.

Reading the figures liberally

The vote figures make interesting reading, depending on how they are read, in terms of wins, the country was literally cut in half along the lines of a North-South divide, but closer inspection shows that the ruling party is still the national party and the opposition parties are still regional parties.

It has always been my view that the opposition parties would likely reduce the footprint of the ruling party in the legislative and gubernatorial elections but they were nowhere near being able to take the presidency. They just did not have the spread either singularly or in a coalition, it has to be a work in progress to shift the ruling party’s predominance to become a credible and effective opposition.

Much else to do

INEC’s job is by no means complete, the gubernatorial and state house of assembly elections will hold on Tuesday the 26^th of April, 2011, just after the Easter holidays and we must not forget the postponed 19 Senate seats and the 48 House of Representatives seats.

Nigeria however has a credible, viable and possible future where the people elected have a legitimate mandate which they should assume with a sense of accountability to the electorate.

The electorate should not slack in demanding answers to their questions, solutions to their problems and actions to their situations that will move the country on to the right track of realising its potential and inheriting its promise.

I believe in Nigeria

Nigerians all, at home and abroad should be proud to be called Nigerian or be associated with Nigeria.

We have spoken; let the country start that great journey with the President-elect ready to take the mantle of leadership and lead with vision, mission, destiny and attainment.

Those who need to wallow in every kind of negativity they can muster are within their rights to do so, they can decide to catch up later but they will not be allowed to hold us back no matter how deep their grievances.

I believe today in a country called Nigeria – What say you?

Sources

INEC Nigeria: Summary of the Presidential election results per state.

INEC Nigeria: Summary of votes cast for each political party.

Previous Reviews

Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review I

Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review II - New Election Dates

Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review III - Who votes on Saturday.

Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review IV - Part I to Voting

Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review IV - Part II - We can

Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review V

Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review VI - Report to Prevent Rigging

Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review VII - Change!

Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review VII - Change!

Board the change wagon

Change! That is what is happening in Nigeria as the results of the Presidential elections begin to take shape before us and we realise that the Nigeria that went into the elections is coming out of it a rather different country.

In the process, we risk the likelihood of not seeing the forest for the trees and the gains made in the march to serious democratic representation in Nigeria would be lost just when it appeared the enthusiasm and mass participation of Nigerians might force as sense of accountability upon the elected.

The conduct of the elections in general appear to be quite free, very fair and might even crest the threshold of credible; there are cynics and curmudgeons who would go to the ends of the earth to seek out the problems and highlight those as the generalised state of affairs.

It was quite irksome that a writer for the Wall Street Journal took that view of things amidst the progress, rather than go on the defensive, we decided he was a distraction on the verge of losing credibility and relevance as an authority on Nigerian affairs.

Losing ground and giving way

The changes happening before our eyes are myriad, buoyed by the experiences of the last weekend’s elections for the legislature, it appears more people came out to vote and there are areas that even had larger numbers of enthusiastic voters ready to vote and protect the exercise of their franchise through the count to the announcements.

The ruling party that seemed to have a solid national footprint before any of the elections is steadily losing ground to other parties, it is still far ahead in the legislature but it would not have carte blanche in the affairs of the nation anymore, it would have to negotiate its way and hopefully, representatives from other parties will resist the urge to carpet-cross allowing for a more vibrant democratic setting.

A smarter democracy

There is an apparent sophistication in the voting pattern of Nigerians where for the legislature, it looked like a 4-party affair, the ruling party still retaining a more national spread but the other parties were consolidating their localities and regions whilst seeking to spread out to other areas – I would expect this to be more obvious in the gubernatorial and state assembly elections in 9 days.

The presidential elections looks more like a 2-party affair with very polarised showings where one party appears to be stronger and very few where they seem to be head-to-head – this reveals a lot about the thinking that presents in the numbers that are coming up – the presidency is hardly a regional thing, it is a Nigerian thing and the incumbents are being given a run for their money.

The godfathers have departed

The other interesting thing is that the expected goal of godfathers to deliver their constituencies is no more a given, prominent candidates are not necessarily wining in their backyards as if the electorate has a mind of its own, it has taken its own destiny in its hands and is charting a course rarely travelled in the Nigerian political landscape.

The old habits of buying off votes were frowned at, some party moneybags got beaten within an inch of their lives, people have decided for them to have a say in how they are governed their vote has to become priceless and untainted with filthy lucre. The politics of the belly is giving way to the politics of determination and it requires no erudite bearing to appreciate that in Nigeria – we imperil ourselves if we consider the illiterate a lesser Nigerian and bereft of ability to make quality decisions.

It was evident that the President chose an obscure governor without a serious political base to be his vice-president and eventual running mate to ensure that he remained the front-runner for his party – this with the seeming demise of the preponderance of godfathers might well mean if the sitting President gets elected the forces that wreaked havoc within his party would have been tamed by drubbing delivered by the electorate.

Seeing their solvers

This election is hardly over by any stretch of the imagination, what is appearing to some as a North-South divide should be seem more as the bridge to unity, the Niger Delta issue which had not gotten adequate attention of the President probably meant the less well-off would choose a different leader from those who are better off and somewhat apathetic to the democratic system – in what would be a self-fulfilling prophecy to those who believe the country is divided, the decision about who eventually wins would be made for them by those who embraced this election season as an opportunity for revolution and change.

Sceptics can be allowed the courage of the convictions and they would also reap the consequences of their decision not to engage as they sat on the fence carping at everything happening with elitist know-all and superiority.

It isn’t over yet

Even the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) is rapidly adapting to change, taking lessons from the postponements, the previous elections and soundings from social media to improve on their service; their website [1] has been totally revamped to provide a professional access point for results and activities of the organisation.

A technicality however looms, Section 134 of the Nigerian Constitution [2] prescribes the provision necessary for declaring a president duly elected after elections, it is as inscrutable as it loaded with ambiguity ripe for interpretation that would have lawyers working overtime in the field of advanced political arithmetic.

Over the next few days, we would get a clear picture of who might emerge as president or even the possibility of a run-off election – these are uncharted waters and if dragons be there, they shall be slain.

God Bless Nigeria, change has surely come, it may however not be like what you expected – see the trees, see the forest and be prepared for the wildlife.

Sources

[1] INEC Nigeria Homepage

[2] Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria: Federal Executive

Previous Reviews

Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review I

Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review II - New Election Dates

Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review III - Who votes on Saturday.

Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review IV - Part I to Voting

Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review IV - Part II - We can

Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review V

Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review VI - Report to Prevent Rigging

Nigeria: Keeping eyes on that election rigging video

Trends that wend and wane

Maybe it is unfair to suggest that we Nigerians are people of the moment with very short attention spans along with excitable responses to the sensational laced with a penchant for being critical and unsatisfied whilst being the most impatient with everyone else but ourselves.

The elections taking place in Nigeria this April will reveal a lot about the kind of people we are, the opportunities we have that might be squandered, the potential we have that might not be realised and the evidence we have that might never be properly processed.

Amazing evidence capture

This evening a video went viral on both Twitter and Facebook depicting the blatant rigging of the election where a lady was busy thumbing sheaves of ballot papers, another lady on the lookout and two men who evidently saw what was going on without much concern and the National Youth Service Corps member who for his impartiality was engaged as one of the INEC staff sat at a desk ensuring that the affront to our democracy was validated.

It is important to understand that despite the great cost of this electioneering process, the purpose of the registration exercise was to eliminate bogus registrants from the voters’ register, the job of conducting free and fair elections can only be facilitated, and it cannot be guaranteed only with technology or adequately policed by INEC without the help and support of the public.

The voting system that we experienced last Saturday represented a complete change to what we were used to, voters were encouraged to participate fully in the electoral process from the time of accreditation through to after the voters have been counted and the results pasted at the Polling Units.

More importantly, voters were given license to take their mobile devices to their Polling Units to record events, report situations and take pictures. In this case, the video recorded is even more compelling evidence that needs to be pursued to its fullest conclusion.

Get those people – Quick!

That conclusion should be identifying the location of that Polling Unit, identifying all the faces and people involved in that electoral fraud, determining who could have put them to that illegal activity and prosecuting all those involved to the fullest extent of the law.

It goes without saying that the votes from that Polling Unit must be excluded from the final results whilst further investigations need to be made of the ballot papers from the Senatorial District to examine with the thumbprints are unique or the same – there is every likelihood, if followed through, that the election will be nullified and the people given a second chance at electing who they really want to represent them.

Boredom sets in

Hours have passed since the video featured in a tweet as Nigerians have latched unto a new fad with the hash-tag #deprivednaijachildhood and found ways to link that to the #NigeriaDecides hash-tag with every need to apprehend those vote rigging crooks now a distant memory.

I posted a tweet that recalled the video for a moment - Hours ago the vote rigging video went viral, it is now forgotten for #deprivednaijachildhood, #NigeriaDecides we get bored easily.

The analysis is obvious

In any case, the video rigging video offers INEC and the law enforcement authorities a lot of evidence to work on which could be made easier with help from the public.

There are at least two clear faces on that video, someone must know who they are, what are their names and their addresses – they should be easy to apprehend with information from colleagues, friends, family, neighbours or the community. The video shows they intended to get away with this crime and it was done with impunity, the more the reason to nab these crooks and make an example of them.

The video is introduced with names of someone who appears to have benefitted from this fraud and another who appeared to have lost because of the fraud – I would say we jump to no conclusions on the matter but the names help narrow down the location where the video was recorded.

Narrowing it down

The candidates mentioned were Dr. Nomate Toate Kpea and Hon. Magnus Ngei Abe; they were contesting in the Rivers South Senatorial District with the identification SD/095/RV; that being the 95^th Senatorial District in Nigeria which covers the following Local Government Areas Andoni, Eleme, Gokana, Khana, Opobo/Nekoro, Oyigbo & Tai.

The Collation Centre for this Senatorial District is at Swanu-Finima Nwika Conference Hall in Bori.

The polling booth in which the rigging took place is labelled Unit 08 which means in one of those 7 Local Government Areas each of which is comprised of Registration areas there is a Polling Unit that ends with /008.

Maybe…

Obviously, JujuFilms Productions – a California-based company that uploaded the video unto YouTube might also have all that information and they can be contacted on info@JujuFilms.tv

If anything, it is important that these people be recused from any other electoral activity forthwith and it is incumbent on every Nigerian to ensure that we made the best use of our times at the Polling Units to report everything going on to prevent the blatant abuse of the electoral process by unscrupulous people.

As I finished this blog, I came across more evidence though not fully corroborated that gave names to the women involved in this activity. That evidence appears here.

A rewrite of this part

Taking out the inferences and allusions the evidence lead back to the YouTube origins of the video where JujuFilms Productions had posted another comment suggesting the lady in the red top whose face is quite clearly visible throughout the video is Baridi Naleloo, it states she is the PDP women’s leader of Ward 4 B-Dere and an employee of Gokana Local Government.

That is enough to match Unit 08 label on the Polling Booth to Ward 4 B-Dere in the Gokana Local Government of Rivers State and that gives us a PU Number of 32/12/04/008 located at C.P.S. I B-Dere, Giogon Boobana, Rivers State http://t.co/74QhKW8 with the description “The PU building is located at Gio-Gon Boobana Lebe square, B-Dere.”

The name given for the other lady whose is thumbing the ballot papers is Barivure, she is said to be an employee of the Rivers State University of Science and Technology. Going through the staff roll, I found that the prefix Bari- was common but could find no Barivure, which might be that she is of a much junior cadre.

INEC simply have to pick Baridi Naleloo up and she will no doubt sing like a canary; as for the other names and relationships, along with the paymasters that sanctioned this criminality, they should all be corralled and made a public show of.

Having cobbled together the PU Number from all the information obtained, it all seems to check out in the Senatorial District Finder, it can be no coincidence that all the names on the video and everything else just fits snuggly together, almost too conveniently.

This matter must not rest! Over to you, INEC.

Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Review VI - Report to Prevent Rigging