My second census

Counted as one of us

Two weekends ago, I filled in the census forms online even though today, the 21^st of March 2021 is Census Day in England. I did not expect my circumstances or living arrangements to change between then and now.

The UK census is taken every 10 years from 1801 with the year ending in a 1, there was one census in April 1966, I am not too sure if we participated in it. The next census, where I was indeed counted, was in Jos, Nigeria, in 1973, the enumerator arrived at our house and was in a meeting with my parents for about an hour before we all had a finger inked to indicate we had been counted.

In April 1991, my living arrangements were quite fluid that I eventually did not get counted at all. The 2001 & 2011 censuses had me out in The Netherlands where for privacy reasons direct censuses are not conducted at except for from data gleaned from other sources, so, the first census in which I have been counted in the majority would be this one, and I am 55.

Who and what we are

The range of questions I had to answer covered status, occupation, nationality, ethnicity, sexual orientation, and gender identity. Whilst I would normally fall under the grouping of Black British, I do prefer to identify as Black English. I found that there was a determination to peg me down to my particular ethnic ancestry and so, I have to volunteer that my parents are Nigerian.

For the first time, we were asked what our sexual orientation was and evidently, I am Gay and for now single in the UK until I get married to Brian soon. My gender identity is male, though the need for that question indicates the change times and norms as to how we identify.

More and more, many of our civic responsibilities are performed online and we are open to sanction or fines if we do not participate in the census with a possible £1,000 fine, much as well if we do not register to vote. What appears to be voluntary is not necessarily so and because of a 100-year rule, the public will not have access to the results of this census until the year 2122.

Decade Blogs - Seun Fakuade - Groping in the Dark

Decade Blogs

Seun Fakuade is one of those young Nigerian thinkers that helps retain the faith I have in Nigeria when I left for Europe almost a quarter of a Century ago.

At the end of his write-up, Seun asks one question, “Will the best and brightest citizens rise or whine?”

I have watched how he has striven and struggled to make sense of the malaise that afflicts Nigeria and how he with like-minded people have joined up leveraging tools at their disposal to seek out solutions to its many problems.

There are people in Nigeria who have a higher calling beyond the corrupt and unconscionable kakistocracy of the ruling class that seems to have a vice-grip on the neck of Nigeria and I count Seun as one of such Nigerians.

His contribution to my #YourBlogOnMyBlog Series commemorating my Decade of Blogging closes 5 weeks of interesting insight from 35 remarkable people but opens up many questions about Nigeria’s future.

Blog - To Celebrate My Decade of Blogging

Whilst this is a long read, it is an essential and critical read too, it is about education in Nigeria, from the products entering the job market with literally no marketable skills, or even suffering from the consequences of strikes as explained by Chuba Ezekwesili’s contribution to this series to the powder-keg of over 10 million out of school children.

Blog - Decade Blogs - Chuba Ezekwesili - The Hidden Costs of University Strikes

No matter what the government parrots bandy about as statistics and gains, this is a disgrace and an emergency that has been put in the hands of garrulous political jobber – Nyesom Wike, the Minister of Education. His profile shows he has no pedigree or antecedents that qualify him for such a critical task, however, I must not write Seun’s blog.

‘Seun Fakuade blogs at www.seunfakze.wordpress.com; microblogs on Twitter with the @seunfakze handle, he is the founder, social entrepreneur and change advocate at Beacons Development Foundation; and is a business entrepreneur at Bedazzle Media. Contact him if you may at seunfakze@yahoo.com

Groping In The Dark

10 years. Wow. That is how long Akin has been blogging. When Akin writes, he leaves you with impressions: his literary expressions leave you awed at the vocabularies, his grammatical constructs and oft time – more confused while trying to make sense of all. In all, you just have to like him.

Self-deprecating, mingling, a definite sense of dignity, and all an understanding that one must follow before he leads. Akin is over 40, yet considers some of us decades before him as his comrades. That is humility if you ask me. Seeing that he has kept on blogging for 10 years is a jolt for me to take time away and resume blogging.

Egbon Akin, as I fondly refer to him, left me awed the first time we spoke on the phone: baritone voice, but with unmistaken command of the English letter, and an astounding grasp of issues. He called shortly after the #occupynigeria protest – one which had left most of us angry, irritated, confused, and even disappointed. After about 20 minutes, his compelling soothing words left me better than I initially was.

Nigeria is blessed with many men like Akin. One of such is Ade. He had picked me up twice at the airport: well built, soft-spoken, well mannered, and with a demeanor that shows refinement in all measures. I am quite observant, so the third time he picked me up, I was curious enough to ask him why he was a taxi driver despite his impeccable command of English.

Ade confirmed what I had suspected: he was a graduate who resorted to driving to make ends meet after three years of futile search. Since that day, I developed a more empathetic affection for him and I have always utilized his services anytime I don’t have family to pick me up. Ade, like many other jobless graduates, exists in many localities across states in Nigeria.

10 years. Long enough to juxtapose where we were in 1999 and where we are now. Long enough to ask “are we better off”? 10 years; enough to cast reflections on Nigeria and its myriad problems. 10 years, with the same challenges and new ones; with the same unsolved national problems despite monies spent.

10 years is enough to reflect on Nigeria’s torturous path to redemption, to escape from oblivion; enough time to find out if Nigeria’s democracy is worth it in the first instance. 10 years is more than enough to weigh our options; to consider as citizens what we must do if Nigeria as a nation must advance in growth and development; not just throwing around numbers and digits as measures of growth.

10 years. Sufficient time for me to see the widening disparity between the rich and poor, to see the growing unrest amongst the youthful population, to see children hawk more in growing numbers on our expressways, to see that nothing significant has changed regardless of the deceptive words thrown around by sycophants and growth propagandists – if you may.

10 years. Enough time to see Nigeria plunge from a steady and gradual path to redemption back to years of impunity and government-backed or sponsored corruption. 10 years has enabled us see politicians make promises that they won’t keep; seen years of waste in almost every sector of the Nigerian state.

Human Capital

You can determine where a nation is heading with its investment on the human capital of its people. Lee Kuan Yew, the founder of Singapore as Prime Minister steered the annual per capita income from $400 in 1959 to about an estimated $51,709 compared to Nigeria’s $1,555 (http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD). [Context: Four Asian Tigers (Wikipedia) The Economy of Singapore (Wikipedia)]

Yew believed that “the quality of a nation’s manpower resources is the single most important factor determining national competitiveness. It is the people’s innovativeness, entrepreneurship, team work, and their work ethic that gives them that sharp keen edge in competitiveness.”

Yew’s administration sustained an investment in the education of its young people, ensuring that the best and brightest of its citizens are sent to the world’s Ivy League schools each year; and re-absorbed into the country’s leadership (public offices) to steer change and utilize their human capital as fit.

Contrast that with Nigeria where public leaders are less interested in the future of the nation (as actions imply); less concerned about investment in education; and the education sector is riddled with years of cyclical union unrest (the University Union – ASUU – last week ended another 5 months strike that has become typical of administrations in Nigeria); rote learning, reductive and outdated curriculum and unmotivated tutors/teachers.

Nigeria, currently the world’s seventh most populous nation, is projected to be around 440 million in population by 2050, ultimately becoming the world’s third most populous nation. By 2050, 37 years from now, if Nigeria fails to develop its much-needed infrastructure and other capacities, the population explosion will overwhelm the dwindling resources available. http://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2013/jun/13/nigeria-larger-population-us-2050

The hope for Nigeria lies in its young: the impressionable, malleable and bubbling population; as such, a clearly-focused leadership needs to pay due attention to building its capital through a rigorously policy-driven investment in world class education that will solve its present and future challenges. The capital investments in the past 5 years in education, have they been driven by sound accurate data that reflects what priorities and focus should be?

Skills mismatch contributes, in part, to the ridiculously high unemployment rates in Nigeria amongst young people: young ones are either studying what is not specific or tailored to their career path, or being taught by outdated methods/techniques in over-crowded classrooms; leaders are barely interested in sound solutions than they are in the transactional contracts in education; and unfortunately, citizens are rarely interested in the process so long as they obtain a certificate.

Every quarter, the National Youth Service Corps churns out about 72,000 new graduates (2,000 per state): half-baked, ill-equipped to contribute “meaningfully” to the economy or innovatively create jobs themselves as entrepreneurs!

Science and technological advancements in nations are brought about by innovations and entrepreneurial creativity driven by citizens/private sector; based on a solidly sound foundational cutting edge education. The lopsided policies, distorted leadership and unpatriotic greedy characters in Nigeria’s political leadership give no room for arresting Nigeria’s educational backlog of problems. The statistics weigh against a bright future.

Despite the 8% capital investment in the education sector (a shortcoming of UNESCO’s recommended 26%), it seems Nigeria is making no in-roads to solving most of its pressing challenges. The out-of-school tragedy in Nigeria validates my unsettling worries.

Aggressive investment in education backed by thorough sound policies has resulted in marked reduction in arresting the trend of out-of-school children across other regions and in other countries; seen remarkably in India and Ethiopia.

Why, in contrast, has Nigeria’s case being different?

Who enacts educational policy in Nigeria?

What data do they draw in from policy decisions?

Reaching Out Of School Children - UNESCO

The 10.6 million out-of-school children [PDF] population in Nigeria is highest in the world - the exact size of Tunisia as a nation, twice the size of Singapore as a nation. The socio-economic implications of these children in the next 10 years should be a great source of concern for all Nigerians. If resolved, viable individuals can transform the economy of Nigeria in no small measure, contribute meaningfully to their families and live a sustained vibrant community. If unresolved, high unemployment will result in more crimes, violence and terror cells to mention a few.

Nigeria has the most children without schools - BBC

Foreign aid in education has resulted in little or no progress as desired. If policies are meant to determine the appropriate investment, what specific data has education public servants been using to deduce their policies? It behooves on every patriotic citizen to call leaders to wake to the tragedy ahead. It is important that anyone who has the ears of decision-makers in education call them to the ticking time bomb the neglect in education will cause.

A nation with viable human capital has many advantages socially, economically and politically. Capital must be emphasized on, not only during political campaigns or with speeches and beautiful rhetoric but backed with accurate data alongside aggressive and measured actions. The leadership in Nigeria in the next 10 years has an unenviable job of fixing the rot, the problems and averting impending tragedies of the future.

The next 10 years will depend on active citizens who will make constant demands, participate and engage in the democratic process. Corruption thrives in an environment riddled with unaccountable leadership. An awakened and participatory citizenry is a guaranteed check for corrupt leadership.

To this end, it is essential that citizen voices are not silenced by any means, through legislative censure or otherwise. Censorship of dissenting but critical citizen voices is inimical to democratic growth. This is why the proposed intelligence surveillance on Nigerians by the Goodluck Jonathan administration is a threat to the expression of critical voices against all forms of corruption and impunity.

Nigeria has all the best human and natural resources needed to be the greatest country in the world IF the best and brightest people lead.

Will the best and brightest citizens rise or whine?

Truly, is there hope for true transformational growth and quantifiable development for the next 10 years?

Africa: Take another look

Africa - Revisited

A few years ago, I came across what is now known as a strange map of Africa. Not so much about Africa itself but putting it in a kind of perspective in comparison with other countries in order to disabuse the view of Africa being out there, out of sight and homogenous.

The blog Africa Is A Country attempts to send up the impressions that tourists and workers to Africa, especially from NGOs give about Africa, but there comes a time where some basic enlightenment is useful.

In terms of size, Africa is the second largest continent in the world with 54* countries. [Source: WorldAtlas (Size)]

Continents

Continent	Size (km2)	Size (mi2)	Population	Countries
Asia	43,820,000	16,920,000	4,164,252,000	44
Africa	30,370,000	11,730,000	1,022,234,000	54
North America	24,490,000	9,460,000	542,056,000	23
South America	17,840,000	6,890,000	392,555,000	12
Antarctica	13,720,000	5,300,000	0	0
Europe	10,180,000	3,930,000	738,199,000	47
Australia/Oceania	9,008,500	3,478,200	29,127,000	14

*There are 54 fully recognised African states that are members of the United Nations with Algeria being the largest by size. [Source: Wikipedia]

However, this detail is hardly effective if one does not catch a visual side of the real comparisons which is where the map below comes in.

[Original Source: ThinkBig – 35 The Size of Africa now inaccessible.]
[Updated with a picture grab from WhiteAfrican on 23-11-2015]

Why it matters

The map is quite apt for many reasons because most of the people I have heard from that say they have visited Africa even though it might have one of three major destinations being Egypt, South Africa or Kenya have hardly seen Africa.

It was the Europeans that colonised most of Africa, Americans that do get to travel besides their economic or military influence are likely to be missionaries if they go off the beaten path or belong to some NGO helping fight one of Africa’s many ills.

The Chinese have been coming to Africa and it is estimated over 1,000,000 have set up home in Africa, the reception of the Chinese varies between great excitement and serious foreboding.

India, Incredible India just allows for those who have been there to know that it is just about a tenth of the size of Africa though with a similar population size.

In the end, I hope that this map just helps put Africa in perspective, it is not a country and even within the 54 countries there are nations, tribes, languages, traditions, cultures and much else that might be the topic for another write-up.

Just take in the wonder of the size of Africa for starters. Thank you.

Gauging the Nigerian 2006 Census

Counting the incredible

The Nigerian blog boards have been rife with disputing about the validity of the 2006 census as many are derisively rejecting the returns as both a waste of money and a fantasy of figures.

Two points really stick out on this matter of numbers, the fact that Kano State, in the North has more people “counted” than the state of the commercial capital of Nigeria, Lagos and that there are many more men than women in the country.

None of this really seems all that strange when one really examines the numbers returned and the circumstances around the conduct of the census last year.

First, we need to understand the changing demography of Nigeria, there was a time when Ibadan in Western Nigeria was the largest city in Africa in the 1950s, and the city gave up that title to Cairo in the 1960s.

See the figures

As it happens, the whole of Kano State came to 9,383,682 whilst Lagos State counted 9,013,354 a difference of 370,148 coming to just about 0.041% [1] - this has become the subject of interesting debate.

However, when you look at the zoning of the South West of Nigeria which includes Lagos the total population comes to 27,581,992 which is 8,204,952 less than the North West with 35,786,944, where each respective state numbers more than the corresponding state in the South West, alluding to the generally accepted view that the North of Nigeria has always had more people than the South.

What to do with a holiday

When the census took place proper, the whole country was given a week off [2], however, no special restrictions were placed on movement except for 2 days – the 24^th and 25^th of March 2006 having been on holiday since the 21^st of March – many could have gone off since Friday the 17^th of March to return on Sunday the 26^th of March without being subject to the restriction.

This meant people in highly populated conurbations could have availed themselves of the opportunity to travel to their villages and one can say the greater mobility would be in the South than in the North.

This can seriously skew the numbers since non-indigenes probably make up the majority of the residents of Lagos State.

There might be other reasons why the fertility rate and population demographic presents a higher figure in the North than in the South; however, exploring those ideas can be too subjective for appropriate discourse.

Sex Ratios

The issue of there being more males than female is not particularly strange either, sex ratios which is a major area of study indicates that globally there are really more males than females, the natural sex ratio at conception is estimated at 1.05 males/female [3] and this falls as it evens out in adulthood and then to more females at over the age of 65.

Then view the extremes, like Qatar with 1.87 males/female and Sierra Leone has 0.96 males/female, the People’s Republic of China with a population of 1,315,844,000 (2006 Estimate) [4] has a sex ratio of 1.13 males/female, so why should Nigeria with just over a tenth of that population be so radically different having a sex ratio of 1.02 males/female?

The outcry

The only way to determine a census is to count the people, there is no doubt that logistics in the matter of the Nigerian census were very poor, my mother informed me that people on her street had to pay to be enumerated, one can only wonder about the less enterprising ones who did not get counted because they did not participate in the “Nigerian Way” of getting things done.

Census issues have always sparked controversy, usually between the North and South and this time is not different as politicians pluck figures out of the air to corroborate unverifiable statements – people believe there are 15 million people in Lagos but no one has assuredly counted 15 million people on location in Lagos [5] – this pandering to ethnic dominance by numerical strength does not serve Nigeria well and it would appear we have not grown out of this cancer of tribal ascendancy.

The count

I remember one Saturday morning in 1973 when an enumerator visited our well-appointed bungalow in Rayfield, a suburb of Jos in the then Benue-Plateau State, the young man was invited into the house where he asked my parents a number of questions, we had our thumbs inked as our household included our housemaid and a gardener.

When I got to school on Monday we were all showing off our black thumbs as one of the counted, that was the only census I have ever attended, since then, our family was grown, that is a blessing.

It is strange that we expect a higher number from the South when it appears what some news organ calls Biafran separatists refused to be counted [6], there is no telling how many were not counted out of omission and others who refused to be counted, all that gets reflected in the final results.

Need for objectivity

It is easy to get carried away on the emotion of the occasion as we seek kinship for a perceived injustice and gather in the mass hysteria of castigating a process that did cost a lot of money.

Sadly, this census would not reflect in the realignment of the federal constituencies for the 2007 elections [7], but it is of concern if only 40 million are registered to vote if almost 80 million are over the age of 15, 18 being the voting age.

The projections and figures are almost in agreement and the debate is in the superficial detail of who has the most and where.

For now, it is the best census we have, if it should change, then we need to get our logistics right, educate the enumerators and understand the greater service to our fatherland to ensure we are counted fairly and without corrupt duress – before that, Kano State has more than Lagos State and sorry, you cannot have more than one wife, there are not enough to go round.

References

[1] Demographics of Nigeria

[2] Nigeria shuts down for key census

[3] Sex ratio

[4] List of countries by population

[5] Rejections greet census result

[6] Nigeria’s population tops 140 million

[7] Census: INEC Uses Current Constituencies for April Polls

CIA – The World Factbook – Nigeria

The Nigerian Census – a review in April 2006