#StellaGate: Do The Needful song

A princess in princely disaster

Therefore, the Nigeria Minister of Aviation, Princess Stella Oduah, appeared before the House of Representatives committee on Aviation, to answer for overpriced bullet-proof BMW limousines presumably bought in her name.

With the air disaster, the near miss and suspension of airline operator licences that made October 2013 arguably the worst month of her tenure, the crisis of confidence was compounded with the purchase of unnecessary vehicles by a cash-strapped independent agency under her ministry.

See the following:

Nigeria: Acts of God in our Aviation Industry or Rank Incompetence?

Nigeria: Every reason to believe our airspace is not safe

Do the needful

After numberless claims and counterclaims from many government agencies with none of the at least five stories lining up, she appeared and said whilst she approved the transaction, she annotated the approval with, “Approved. Do the needful.”

‘Do the needful’ might well become a meme, but ‘Do the needful’ could mean anything from doing due diligence to exculpating oneself from responsibility if the whole issue blows up as it has done overshadowing the President's jamboree, pardon me, pilgrimage and visit to Israel, last week.

Let’s sing, let’s dance

However, rather that attempt to add another story to #StellaGate or #OduahGate with the aim of creating a Nigerian version of Arabian Nights and a story for bedtime, I have decided, ‘Do the Needful’ should be a song and dance, maybe a musical.

I am not a lyricist, but I have the framework of what can be refined and set to music, then we need a choreographer to help with the dance steps to go with the music.

Here is the draft ‘Do the Needful’ theme song:

Do the Needful,
I signed for the vehicle,
Make the claim,
But never in my name.

Do the Needful,
Stop the ridicule,
The BMW,
Is for me, not for you.

Do the Needful,
Take me for a fool,
A bulletproof price,
Is like rolling the dice.

Do the Needful,
The princess is beautiful,
Her life is in danger,
From some stranger.

Nigeria: How much do we pay our lawmakers? - Part II

Back on the streets

The Nigerian youth marched out to our legislative houses all around the country on Thursday the 26^th of September 2013.

On Twitter, they mustered and gathered organised under the Twitter hashtag of #OurNASS where Nigerians demanded accountability, transparency and better representation. [Al Jazeera]

The occupation of elected political office had long shifted from the call to service to what was self-serving interests exemplified by outrageous remunerations that make the eyes water.

A salary to feast on

It is the long held belief that our democracy is both profligate and extravagant, it is safe to assume that the cost is unsustainable.

However, when the people congregated at the National Assembly in Abuja, some senators braved the crowds and came out to chat with the people where for the very first time a senator presented his payslip detailing the salary for one month paid in January 2010, in the previous electoral cycle as tabulated below:

Without considering inflationary changes and reassessments up to 2013, this alone presents an interesting reading on the percentages scale.

Multiples beyond belief

A senator will take 735% in allowances beyond his basic salary monthly with 200% going to housing and 250% going to managing a constituency office.

If the Pay As You Earn (PAYE) deductions total more than the basic salary, you then wonder if the allowances are taxed too.

Besides this, the vehicle loan is 400% of annual basic salary, but if a term is 4 years, how does a senator pay off that loan without seeking extra funds over and above the salary?

It would mean the legislator will would have either to meet that from the allowance pool or engage in other business activity to meet possible shortfalls, this remuneration structure is uneconomical and presents the framework for nefarious activity, possibly corruption.

Not sustainable

What does not show in this salary payslip is the furniture allowance, which is 75% of annual salary paid in a lump sum at the commencement of legislative tenure and 5% for housing allowance.

We still need to get a current figure representing what we pay our legislators but in percentage terms with reference to the basic salary, it is unlikely as I have said before that any private sector job rewards people this well, this democracy at this rate and cost is unsustainable.

Other reading

Nigeria: How much do we pay our lawmakers? - Part I

Nigeria: The relative cost of our democracy is unsustainable – AkinBlog.nl

Revenue Mobilisation Allocation and Fiscal Commission (RMAFC) – About page.

Senator earns N12m yearly, says RMAFC – The Nation

Certain Political, Public and Judicial Office Holders Salaries and Allowances etc, (Amendment) Act of 2008

Nigeria: How much do we pay our lawmakers? - Part I

How much do we pay our lawmakers?

Getting round the inscrutability of the remuneration for Nigerian legislators has been a completely fraught exercise that none of the organisations with the function of regulating such appear to have a handle on.

However, when the Economist blew the lid off the exorbitant salary packages of the Nigerian Senators a few weeks ago as I wrote in this blog [1], the uproar that followed especially on social media meant that it was impossible to ignore and something had to be done.

A moribund commission

The Revenue Mobilisation Allocation and Fiscal Commission (RMAFC) [See their About page here[2]], is empowered to:

"Determine the remuneration appropriate to political office holders, including the President, Vice-President, Governors, Deputy Governors, Ministers, Commissioners, Special Advisers, Legislators and the holders of the offices mentioned in Section 84 and 124 of the Constitution."

They have through this news story [3] gleaned from a newspaper advertisement released some information regarding the salaries of the Nigerian legislators but we are left with many more questions than what this red meat to the dogs of dissent was supposed to sate.

A guesstimate at best

Whilst the figures published by the Economist might be in dispute, the Economist asserts that their figures are for 2013, whereas the figures released by the RMAFC are in their words, ‘has been the official remuneration package since February 2007 till date’, which makes one wonder whether the salaries and allowances of our legislators have remained the same for 6 years despite inflation, the global financial crisis and two elections – that stretches the limits of incredulity, it really does.

Now, the Commission has taken it upon itself to do the following:

“Accordingly, the Commission, therefore, considers it most appropriate and necessary to provide the actual details of present remuneration package for political, public and judicial office holders to avoid misinformation and misrepresentation of facts capable of misleading citizens and members of the international community.”

They don’t really know

And what do they have?

“According to the RMAFC, the emoluments for ministers, Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Head of Service and Chairmen of Constitutional Bodies are close to those of the Senators …”

One might read that to mean they do not have the actual figures because, they reference that the “Certain Political, Public and Judicial Office Holders Salaries and Allowances etc, (Amendment) Act of 2008, states the actual amount being paid to legislators and other public officers, adding, however that “any other allowance (s) enjoyed by any political, public office holder outside those provided in the Remuneration Act of 2008 is not known to the Commission and the Chief Accounting Officer should be held accountable””, I guess that means they really do not have all the information.

That is because, the said, Certain Political, Public and Judicial Office Holders Salaries and Allowances etc, (Amendment) Act of 2008 [Viewable here as a PDF [4]] does not include the salaries of the any of the legislators, however, we have a general idea as to why seeking political and public office in Nigeria is quite a lucrative career move.

I commiserate

I can understand what Zakari Mohammed, the spokesman for the House of Representatives meant when he said, “Whatever is being written is mere exaggeration and does not reflect what is accurate. They fail to realise that what we take as salaries is different from what we use in running our offices.” Even accounting for what it takes to run an office, that would mainly be staff and other outgoings amounting to about 250% of basic salary with about 550% of basic salary in allowances to pocket. It still begs the question, what is accurate?

Then the RMAFC concludes with, “It is, therefore, wrong and misleading to add up allowances irrespective of whether they are regular, refundable or non-regular, as the regular annual emoluments of political and public office holders.”

Honestly, RMAFC, if we were to add all that into the mix, the Nigerian Senator remuneration package will come to an eye-watering 1,505% of basic salary, and the other 225% for furniture? It breaks the bank to smithereens – Nice work if you can get it, I say.

The table of the Nigerian Senator Salary Package

The table below was derived from the figures supplied by the RMAFC [3] and as far as accuracy is concerned, they are only as good as 2007.

[1] Nigeria: The relative cost of our democracy is unsustainable – AkinBlog.nl

[2] Revenue Mobilisation Allocation and Fiscal Commission (RMAFC) – About page.

[3] Senator earns N12m yearly, says RMAFC – The Nation

[4] Certain Political, Public and Judicial Office Holders Salaries and Allowances etc, (Amendment) Act of 2008

Nigeria: Reviewing Ms. Arunma Oteh's Allegations

Speaking up and loud

This is the stuff great people are made of, fearlessness in the face of persecution and boldness to speak truth to power.

I have many a time been perturbed by the cost of our democracy and the stranglehold corruption seems to have on every facet of life in Nigeria.

Yesterday brought in a number of interesting revelations, whilst many sanctimoniously concentrated on the sensational, the bigger issue was the insight into the workings of our legislature, the committee system and the bottom-feeding frenzy of rent-seeking legislators steeped in despicable malfeasance playing to the gallery pretending to unimpeachable conduct.

Sensational allegations

The Director General of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Ms. Arunma Oteh was appearing before the House Committee on Capital Markets chaired by “Honourable” Herman Hembe – the title must be in quotes until it is regained by a fair assessment of the allegations made and the man is proven completely innocent of the claims.

During the day we were regaled with tales of the profligate excesses of the Ms. Oteh, that she had stayed in  5-star hotel accommodation for 8 months instead of the regulatory one month, that she has spent NGN 850,000 ($5,391) on dinner and everyone ran to town with it. There some dispute as to whether it was NGN 850,000 or NGN 85,000 ($539.10), in either case, this was piffle, almost of no consequence in the scheme of things, the way the country is bilked and milked by all those in political office.

She stoops to conquer

Nigerian politicians are given to bluster and grandiloquence arrogating to themselves privileges, emoluments and untrammelled fiat to bludgeon people who appear before their committees without due courtesies and respect to the attendees.

Ms. Oteh ran the gauntlet of being questioned about her qualifications to fill her position and her ability to perform, it was an inquisition so disgraceful and unbecoming of anyone who deigns to be recognised in polite society but that was Day One.

When Ms. Oteh appeared on Day Two, she was battle-axe ready, fuming, agitated and shooting all guns with deathly accuracy in what might become the biggest political earthquake of our democratic experiment, I should expect aftershocks of similar magnitude to follow.

Explosive political bombshells

She alleged with dates that the Committee Chairman had received moneys to attend a conference that he eventually did not attend and did not refund the expense. She also alleged that he had asked the SEC to fund the activities of the committee to the tune of NGN 39,000,000 ($247,376) and then another demand was made for NGN 5,000,000 ($31,714.80).

She questioned the integrity of the chairman and his credibility to sit in judgement with unclean hands and his maturity in commenting on issues related to the SEC without first verifying the facts possibly with the view to undermine, discredit and contemn Ms. Oteh.

More importantly, she pointedly accused the chairman of corruption and in the court of public opinion challenged the chairman to defend himself against the claims whilst making the case for fairness and better adherence to democratic principles. The raw emotion was palpable as she trembled and her voice quavered with each forceful statement, the discomfiture of the committee was quite evident.

Noisy body talk

The body language of the chairman was like an open book screaming out the words as he swivelled in his chair in pendulumic consonance squirming with embarrassment as he tried to fend off the allegations, twisting Ms. Oteh’s words and playfully making light of the situation but before the whole world, this was a most uncomfortable moment.

In a display of braggadocio he mandated the anti-corruption agencies to investigate the claims, but we Nigerians have very little confidence in the ability of these institutions to follow through to conclusion any allegations, charges or indictments made on senior politicians in Nigeria – it was both a dare and a moot point, if anything comes of it, we will be in for an unusual surprise.

He was obviously rattled that he forgot his manners when he told and not asked Ms. Oteh to turn off her microphone. In a society where character, reputation and integrity matters, where a senior official is besmirched with allegations of corruption, one would expect him to recuse himself and not bring the activities of the committee and the House of Representatives into disrepute, but impunity without consequence is the name of the game in Nigeria, he reasserted his questionable authority and banged the gavel – the seal of authoritative corruption and obvious indifference.

Ms. Oteh – the big spender?

So many things stand out from the events of that day which I will attempt to address one at a time.

Could Ms. Oteh have spent $539 on dinner? Very likely, it would probably have covered a meal with friends and considering the cost of living in Nigeria especially in luxury settings, the prices are unbelievably steep for what we would get at a reasonable cost in Europe. It is quite doubtful that she spent $5,391 at one sitting, it reads like a very tall tale exposed to ridicule and embarrass her – The SEC has asserted the lower figure but why let the truth get in the way of a sensational exposé?

That Ms. Oteh stayed in 5-star accommodation for a whole 8 months is quite beyond the pale but then one can understand that enjoying luxury at the expense of others can be a difficult and herculean task to wean yourself of off, in some ways she was being both a chancer and human – people have done worse, she has been in her position for over two years now, which means alternative lodgings have been arranged for at least 16 months.

Report or proclaim?

Certain people have wondered why Ms. Oteh did not take her allegations of corruption to the anti-corruption agencies. For reasons I have stated before, they have not excelled in their briefs, literally everyone of political clout in Nigerian has gummed up the system and deftly used the judiciary to extricate themselves from the clutches of due process of investigation and administration of justice.

In my view, that public forum was the best place to make those allegations and with it in the open, force many more voices to demand action be taken. If the chairman feels he has been besmirched and libelled he can easily seek redress in the courts but I doubt he has the courage to be exposed to the scrutiny of his cupboard of rampaging skeletons. Compromised legislators grandstanding in public will from now on have to thread carefully.

Estacode abuse

One area of patronage and source of corruption that needs to be reviewed reformed and better regulated is the use and abuse of estacode - funds intended to cover traveling costs by public servants and politicians. Politicians, especially in Nigeria are quite handsomely remunerated; they should not be receiving hand-outs before they have completed whatever missions they embark on.

In the private sector, a modicum of control is exercised on spending because the money first comes out of the pocket and the person is later reimbursed on the presentation of receipts and audited review of the expenses.

Though that process can also be abused, with the presentation of false documents or through collusion, it will not result in profligacy and excessive pre-compensation and the person will be more accountable for their spend. That the chairman received moneys and did not use it for the intended purpose is at best dishonest, if not fraudulent.

Conflicts of interest

The operation of committees needs to be reviewed, the independence of a committee will always be compromised and the perception of its ability to function transparently and fairly will be suspect if the committee and its members receive favours from the institutions they have oversight of. It is befuddling that the concept of conflict of interest has not become part of the framework of the fabric of our democracy.

The legislature has its budget and it must operate within its means without seeking emoluments and sponsorship of external organisations that can exact influence on the probity, transparency and integrity of the committees in some quid pro quo arrangement – this must be deemed illegal, corrupt and outlawed. Perceptions matter, always.

A new breed of public servant

One other interesting point is that Ms. Oteh appeared to be quite combative and it is interesting that on Day One the proceedings were not given a public hearing and then the damaging allegations of living large seemed to set the stage for the committee to embarrass the lady for not playing ball with a live and televised hearing which now seems to have back-fired on the legislators.

If you are called to public service in Nigeria - Do not be assimilated and do not be intimidated. Arunma Oteh is a class act.

There is no doubt that our legislature would prefer Nigerians were not privy to the machinations of corruption, pay-for-play, bribery and other despicable practices that have been rumoured about but never verified. With Ms. Oteh’s very public assailing of these rent-seekers there is very little damage limitation that can be done to restore the public’s confidence in our democracy.

We need to put the feet of these people to the fire and apply more pressure on the system to change, to reform and to root out the atrocious wolves in sheep’s clothing who are selfish, self-conceited and greedily feeding on the system with ravenously gluttonous appetites.

If we are to learn anything from Ms. Oteh, our democracy is in need of an urgent reset.

References

Oteh’s bribery allegation: Reps battle to save face | Vanguard Nigeria

Nigeria: Capital Market Probe - Oteh Accuses Committee Chair of Demanding N39 Million for Members

Nigeria: Ministries banned from funding National Assembly – Written in 2008 about conflicts of interested between the legislature and executive.

Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review XIII - Ideas for Electoral Reform

As we savour the returns

As the election season ends in Nigeria it is important to lay out in some form a whole series of ideas for electoral reform to improve on the experiences we had for the elections in April 2011.

It goes without saying that despite the view of cynics and sceptics about the elections a lot was done to make them freer, fairer and more credible than any we have had before. Even the much heralded 1993 elections were said to be manipulated [1] as averred by the then chairman of the defunct National Electoral Commission of Nigeria (NECON), Professor Okon Uya.

The length of the season

It is however the prerogative of those who are aggrieved by this electoral season to avail themselves of the tribunal process with a quest for justice devoid of desperation and considerate of the fact that Nigeria must not be held back primarily for the satisfaction of the ambitions of the few.

These are however the matters that should become part of the discussion for electoral reform and implementation before the end of the next legislative term.

The electoral season should span at least a 12 month period allowing for voter registration, register inspection, party registration, candidate registration, campaign season, voting, results publication and expedited electoral dispute resolution.

Reusable voter registration

It is unlikely that Nigeria is ready for an electronic voting system; however, the voter registration needs to be amalgamated with the National Identity Card Scheme with added biometric information and a fixing with local government area based on the residential address within 6 months of the elections.

Consideration must be given to chipping the identity card and probably adding RFID data that stores allocated Polling Unit which can be updated if the voter changes their address at the local electoral office.

Voters only need validate their registration and eligibility to vote in what should be termed registration clearance months allowing for new voters to be added, the dead to be eliminated, circumstances to be updated and so on.

Competence over age

In terms of eligibility for office, consideration should be given to at least the age barriers to elective office by at least 5 years, the talent pool of the youth who in other endeavours are competent, able and successful are unfairly excluded by reason of age from elective office as political jobbers hog positions indefinitely.

Considering the pool of talent in the Nigerian population term limits should be set on all elective offices to allow others to contribute to nation building, it may also foster better mentoring rather than godfatherism and the nepotism that currently plagues the system.

Term limits

No one should have the exclusive inclination to think no other Nigerian can try for office and possibly perform better, after a set number of terms, two for executive office and a maximum of three for legislative office the said politicians have to give way.

The candidates for office should be known within a minimum of 90 days before the elections allowing for INEC to adequately inform the electorate of the choices they have. All nomination disputes must be completed at least 60 days before the elections.

INEC should have the right to penalise the abuse of equal access to media and resources to engage with the public doing the campaign process. Part of the sanctions that INEC can use should include barring the offending party’s candidate from contesting the elections.

Voting and sanctions

The modified open ballot system should be retained however the reporting process should have the paper trail as well as the use of mobile data transfers from the Polling Unit direct to the INEC headquarters.

Where electoral malpractice has been discovered and fully investigated to identify the culprits, the responsible party will forfeit the votes tallied, if that election remains valid, in the case there the election needs to be rescheduled, the offending party will forfeit the right to present a candidate for the reschedule election and where the offence is egregious the said party under whatever guise should be made to forfeit the right to present a candidate for the next two elections at the level when the crime was committed.

This means a party might forfeit the right for presenting candidates for the State House of Assembly, House of Representatives, The Senate, Governorship or Presidency.

Named persons for each party should be held criminally responsible for electoral offences committed by their party members and they by the strength of the law should not be able to abdicate their responsibilities.

Sanctions like this should greatly minimise incidents of electoral rigging.

Where reports of intimidation, harassment, bias, tampering or observer access is restricted, INEC should err on the side of fairness and make results from such locations tentative pending investigation with the likelihood of those results being voided.

Dispute resolution

After the results are announced and contestants find need to contest the results, all disputes must be completed with 365 days of the election under dispute.

No incumbent whose election is being contested should serve in electoral office longer than one-quarter of the complete term of office at which point the dispute must have been resolved or a new election should hold.

If the incumbent is found to have engaged in electoral misconduct, that person will not be eligible to contest in the new election and the party the person represents should not be able to present a candidate for that election for the next two terms.

The measures have to be draconian with effective deterrents to ensure all parties and their officials play by the rules. The civil courts with respect to electoral matters should work in concert with INEC to bolster its independence and foster a surer democracy by upholding the letter of the law to its full remit.

Miscellaneous reform issues

The use of ad-hoc staff should be encouraged but INEC should expedite all means of payment and provide the maximum security for all engaged staff.

An electoral recall process should be set up to test a vote of confidence in the elected office at mid-term, if the incumbent is unseated the newly elected person shall only serve out the remaining period of the term and have to contest to retain the office.

Source

[1] The Sun News On-line | Every election since 1922 has been manipulated –Okon Uya, ex-NECON boss

Reviews written about the elections

Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review I

Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review II - New Election Dates

Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review III - Who votes on Saturday.

Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review IV - Part I to Voting

Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review IV - Part II - We can

Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review V

Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review VI - Report to Prevent Rigging

Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review VII - Change!

Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review VIII - A President-Elect

Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review IX - Analysing the Presidential Results

Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review X - The North

Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review XI - A functioning democracy?

Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review XII - Altogether acceptable

Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review XII - Altogether acceptable

Looking at the elections

With the conclusion of the elections on the 28th of April 2011, one now has the opportunity to give a general review of the conduct and the results of what was historic in Nigerian history.

So many opinions have been proffered by many about what these elections mean for Nigeria’s future, however, critically, compared to elections held before; these are probably the freest, fairest and most credible ever administered in Nigeria.

It does not mean they were perfect, they were not and they were far from ideal but a considerable improvement time and again at each time that people offered to elect their representatives.

There are a few more results to be released, some inconclusive results and supplemental elections to hold in certain districts but the elections in the main are over.

Where we started

The newly reorganised Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) had just about 10 months to pull off this turn-around in electoral fortunes that had long been besmirched with incompetence, mismanagement, fraud and corruption.

The voters registration exercise was first a logistical nightmare that INEC attempted to refocus and manage towards the successful registration of over 73 million voters.

The political landscape was a bit fraught for the opposition which for the last 4 years had remained majorly regional and had only made superficial changes to present a national front such that the merging of the opposition parties would still have been a piddling challenge to the ruling party, however, acolytes of these parties harboured bizarre levels of optimism that had no basis in realistic opportunity for success.

The structures implemented

In earlier reviews, it could be said the that theoretically INEC had put in place a whole series of checks and balances to foster credible elections along with engaging the voting public in participating in ensuring their votes counted.

There were loopholes and flaws in the process which need to be improved on in future elections whilst those who now find fault with the system are best advised to avail themselves of the processes in place for the aggrieved.

Social networking featured greatly in the observance and monitoring of the elections, some of the decisions taken by INEC to review the results and reconsider outcomes came from evidence gathered by non-INEC personnel.

Twitter served as both a useful informative platform as well as one in which reputations will be made or tarnished as it was also a vehicle for propaganda, rumour, untruths, lies and misinformation.

The parties and their options

There were three sets of elections in order for the National Assembly, the Presidency and State representation that included the governors and the state assemblies. In the first only three parties really challenged for positions and those were the ruling PDP, then ACN and ANPP with CPC, APGA and LP bringing up the rear.

In the Presidential elections CPC presented the greater challenge winning a good number of states in the far Northern Nigeria only to end up seizing a state for the governorship in the North-Central region where it lagged the ruling party a week earlier.

It goes without saying that the CPC was created mainly as a vehicle for the presidential aspirations of a messianic symbol and not much else, Nigeria would have been plunged into a stalemate of sots to have a CPC president having to work with elected representatives of other parties holding different principles, agendas and motives.

Much as Nigeria requires competence and probity in leadership, it mostly needs the apparatus of government that is not hamstrung with sapping all goodwill necessary to get the job done – the opposition was poorly organised and ill-prepared to take on the machine of the ruling party nationally and so we have the results that leave the ruling party quite dominant national whilst somewhat weakened in some regional areas.

The election low-point

The violence that arose after the presidential elections were unfortunate and poorly addressed by all those who had leadership positions to contain and ameliorate the enveloping crisis.

The Commanded-in-Chief should have been apprised of the possibilities of unrest and put in place measures to pre-empt the situation and once it had begun, he should have moved swiftly to deploy security forces to quell the problems before it lead to the unnecessary destruction of property and even more the loss of innocent lives prominent amongst which were members of the National Youth Service Corps who had been called into the greater national service of being ad-hoc staff of INEC.

At the same time, it exposed the difference between a general being able to command an army failing in battle as opposed to a messianic leader who could not control a mob that failed to attain its aims.

That became the low-point of elections that at one time were being applauded as one of the best ever conducted in Nigeria raising the esteem of the country internationally.

Moving on from this

It is the prerogative of those who care to maintain a cynical and curmudgeonly view of the elections and the continued dominance of the ruling party which is unfortunate for some.

However, we are presented with another 4 years of governance that have been tested by a more credible electioneering process of whom we are within rights to demand accountability, action and responsiveness to the needs of the electorate.

It is incumbent on the opposition to form a broader based national profile which should be evidenced in the performance of their elected representatives, but the hope of all Nigerians is that anyone with a mandate respects the privilege and gets to work for the people regardless of the party they are representing.

The foundation is laid

Nigeria is a project in flux and constant pressures of conflict, change and possible division, we Nigerians all have stewardship of a country given to us by our founding fathers to hold in trust for those who follow after us, to whom we should bestow a better, more prosperous, thriving and growingly assertive nation ready to take its place as the Giant of Africa and the land of opportunity for all regardless of circumstances of birth or fortunes of life.

The foundation laid by these elections are starting point, they still need underpinning, some reinforcements and viable structures to home the flourishing of Nigeria’s potential, it would be shame to squander the next four years in indifference, apathy or destructive criticism of those who have power today to make a difference in people’s lives.

The pursuit of justice must continue, however, not to the detriment of allowing systems to function effectively and efficiently as we demand and expect that they should.

If there is a greater call to national duty, it remains the ability and wiliness to put the nation before self for the good of the nation and the people at home and abroad.

We need to believe in the Nigeria that we have and work to build it into a greater nation.

Reference material

Where we were 4 years ago Before we lose the Nigerian elections gracefully

The comments about the results are derived from the following sources:

The INEC Nigeria homepage offers a summary of the validated results of the elections.

Punch on the Web: Election Portal | Results of 2011 Presidential and other elections

Home : Nigeria Election Coalition presents an another analysis of the results announced.

Reviews written about the elections

Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review I

Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review II - New Election Dates

Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review III - Who votes on Saturday.

Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review IV - Part I to Voting

Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review IV - Part II - We can

Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review V

Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review VI - Report to Prevent Rigging

Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review VII - Change!

Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review VIII - A President-Elect

Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review IX - Analysing the Presidential Results

Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review X - The North

Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review XI - A functioning democracy?

Other issues that arose concerning the elections

Nigeria: A Primer on INEC Elections in April 2011 – Originally published at NigeriansTalk.Org – A compendium of information regarding the elections.

Nigeria: Table of INEC Electoral Chain of Custody – Documents the paper trail put in place to handle the elections and manage the results.

Nigeria: In Support of Attahiru Jega of INEC – Reviewing the mammoth task that INEC faced in trying to offer free, fair and credible elections in Nigeria this year.

Thought Picnic: My Nigerian Philosophy – What informs my stance on Nigerian issues today.

Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review XI - A functioning democracy?

The quest for a credible opposition

This must have been one of the funniest blogs [1] I have read in the Economist which started with the line-dancing equivalent of handling a hat and ended with a very serious message. “Democracy does not function without a serious, credible and decent opposition.”

That hit home so hard that I crafted and posted the following tweet. "Democracy does not function without a serious, credible and decent opposition." @TheEconomist #NigeriaDecides to do without one.

The gubernatorial elections were conducted in 24 States yesterday with Kaduna and Bauchi States scheduled to hold on the Thursday, the other 10 states [2] (Adamawa, Anambra, Bayelsa, Cross River, Edo, Ekiti, Kogi, Ondo, Osun and Sokoto) were not contested still having partial terms to run.

However, the elections for the State Houses of Assembly in 34 States but Kaduna and Bauchi were held as well as the 19 Senate and 48 House of Representative seats which were postponed from the 1^st tranche that held on the 9^th of April.

The ruling party rules wide

Nigeria struggles at being a multi-party state with the pervasive representation of the ruling PDP which before these elections had 26 state governors [3] out of 36, 85 out of 109 Senators and 260 out of 360 members in the House of Representatives in the National Assembly [4].

The footprint of the ruling was big and widespread; there was no opposition party or coalition of opposition parties that had the fleeting chance of overturning these thumping majorities.

The best that could be hoped for was to work on unseating the ruling party in many places and thereby reduce their influence in all spheres of Nigerian life but the presidency was still that of PDP to keep for the next 4 years.

A frustrated CPC President

In the presidential elections help just over a week ago, the CPC party mounted a good challenge [5] but technically, to have expected to overthrow PDP at the ballot box in 2011 was close to a pipe dream fuelled with herbs.

CPC, an offshoot of ANPP, had no political representation whatsoever before these elections and having gained some seats in the National Assembly a CPC President of the Federation of Nigeria would have had the almost impossible task of run his agenda through a hostile and aggressively counterintuitive assembly.

The CPC President might will attempt to rule by executive decree and fiat to keep things going with such provisions exist but it would have been a throwback to our old military times as a frustrated president with all his good intentions but lack of powers of persuasion toward a strident legislature would have found and Nigeria would have been so badly served.

Fixing wrong aims

A leading politician needs a working majority but also an effective opposition such that radical reforms would require the persuasion of the some of the opposition through compromise, consensus or deals – that is politics.

In essence, the opposition parties for the 2011 should have had the strategy of extending their reach to a national presence rather than their regional predominance; a feat that they have hardly pulled off and it goes without saying that parties would need to merge to offer Nigeria the semblance of a serious, credible and decent opposition.

The elections

It is against this backdrop that the election violence after the presidential elections was unfortunate and that might well affect that ability for the opposition parties to gain new acreage as people out of fear and terror might have stayed away allowing for the status quo of Nigerian elections to thrive like ballot box snatching, intimidation of voters and observers alike and incredulous results.

The goodwill and praise that mounted after the first two Saturdays of elections seems to have dissipated into fear, acrimony, death and destruction, the fallout has yet to be fully appreciated but its effects will be far-reaching.

Many of the ad-hoc INEC staff comprised of NYSC members failed to show up for duty because they did not receive convincing assurances of safety and security, where they did, some were bullied, harassed, beaten and possibly came to great harm.

Bombs went off in the North and in the South-East there was major unrest whilst in the South-West some political big-wigs strutted around when they should not have and there were signs of apathy again.

The turnout when the figures are tallied might well be lower as reports of voting without accreditation were made on the Twitter hashtag of #NigeriaDecides.

Sitting back

Meanwhile, INEC is yet to declare results for 18 out of 90 Senate seats and 78 out of the 312 House of Representative seats contested on the 9^th of April, it shows how much energy has been expended in the presidential elections to the detriment of the elections that really do matter for making an effective opposition.

The next few days would determine what Nigeria has really decided will be its government for next four years, there is really no case to be made to successfully overturn the presidential election results but there is a bigger case to be made for the emergence initially of an opposition coalition of parties with a national representation and hopefully the evolution of that into a working political party where first and foremost the country is put before self.

Sources

[1] The 2012 Republican primary: The field thins | The Economist

[2] 234Next | UPDATE: The April 26 elections

[3] List of Nigerian state governors - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

[4] Politics of Nigeria - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

[5] Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review IX - Analysing the Presidential Results

Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review X - The North

The divides are not there

The Presidential Elections this year afforded us the opportunity to revisit the accepted narratives about Nigeria to see if they still fetch true or they are norms that have been perpetrated without question and analysis.

The situation was such that the abuse of numbers allowed the perpetuation of the narrative and the labels that continually divide Nigeria along regional or religious fault lines.

However, the more one looks at the voting patterns the more it appears these defaults are ready for the scrapheap and a reeducation is needed to understand the complexities of our society rather than subscribe to the simplistic rhetoric that gets exploited for ulterior motives and gains by unscrupulous politicians, clerics and power brokers pretending to be community leaders.

One party does unite

Having performed an analysis of the results [1] of the Presidential elections, one is at pains to continually accept this notion of a North-South divide nor is the oft-touted Muslim dominated North as true as we are made to believe else how would there be clashes between religionists.

Beyond buttressing the case for a united Nigeria what seems to have been lost in the accepted narrative is an understanding of the dynamics of Northern Nigeria.

The real divisions

The BBC in a piece about a divided Nigeria [2] some 2 weeks ago laid out a number of geo-political and socio-economic maps of Nigeria highlighting the divisions in Nigeria. The wealth [Graphic], health [Graphic] and literacy [Graphic] maps are what seem to define the real divisions in Nigeria.

The way it appears, the North has been left behind and successive leaderships in the North have failed to rise to the aspirations of the people as a feudal system appears to thrive making the people a ready mob in the hands of unscrupulous power brokers.

Where the North lags

This view is gains more credence as Salisu Suleiman writes in his blog titled Contextualizing protests in Northern Nigeria [3] where he notes that the post-election violence did target the so-called leaders of the North and I quote, “the political, military and business elite as well the traditional institutions that have held the region back and truncated any attempt to educate the people and free them from the yolk of illiteracy and poverty.”

One can find no greater indictment of leaders in that region who have done little for their people locally and then seek to bring that thinking to the national front.

By the time Suleiman lists the issues of education, healthcare, agriculture, corruption and self-serving leadership you begin to get a good picture of why the North appears to be a powder-keg of discontent ready to go off spontaneously when the possible promise of better opportunity appears to be snuffed out.

The hopes of the North dashed?

Tatalo Alamu who writes for The Nation newspaper on Sundays, in a piece that was written on the 3^rd of April, 2011, titled The messiah and the militia [4], Tatalo frames his discourse in almost Apocalyptic prose starting with the capturing the feel of a typical CPC political rally with Muhammadu Buhari as the flag-bearer, “This is not an exultant crowd waiting for a political emancipator. This is a traumatized mob waiting for a messiah.”

The summary is Buhari appears to represent for these people the escape required by his people from the clutches of leaders before who never addressed the issues that kept them far behind in the Nigeria stakes for progress and development.

His inability to assume power would first be expressed in disappointment, then despair and everything else that follows – there was something quite prophetic about that piece because 15 days on, the hopes were dashed, the numbers did not add up and the Buhari or the Messiah they had hoped will come to their deliverance could not ascend the throne of the kingdom.

What the North needs now

There is no doubt that Northern Nigeria needs visionary leadership unhindered by the smokescreens of religious piety masquerading as a society at ease with itself. They need a new political class of selfless people ready to serve their communities and raise all the standards of living that would give Nigeria the better tale of a nation united in purpose and progress.

The question is whether the Federal Government can spearhead change and local governments would be less the vehicles of promoting serfdom and feudalism in a place that is deserving of a lot more than it has been saddled with for decades.

It is to the shame of leaders of the North that we find ourselves writing about these issues today.

Sources

[1] Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review IX - Analysing the Presidential Results

[2] BBC News - Nigeria: A nation divided

[3] Suleiman's Blog: Contextualizing protests in Northern Nigeria

[4] The Nation - The messiah and the militia in Google cache or as Google Docs archive

Twitter tweet - Northern #NigeriaDecides narrative - The Votes http://j.mp/enh5Aa the Messiah http://j.mp/i0yWnN the leaders http://j.mp/e7aH7o

Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review IX - Analysing the Presidential Results

Where we are

There is every need to conduct a thorough analysis of the distribution of votes for the 2011 Presidential Elections held in Nigeria on Saturday, the 16^th of April, 2011.

In about 48 hours after the elections the Independent National Electoral Commission had fully collated the results and announced a winner, Dr. Goodluck Ebele Jonathan of the ruling PDP party.

Now, the ruling party has been in power since 1999 and for the previous elections there have been irregularities bordering on the abominable that left Nigeria in shame, voiceless and disgraced as unable to conduct credible elections, talk less of them being free and fair.

Credible enough

With these elections, they are acceptably free, generally fair and credible enough according to many observers and though the opposition parties appear to have their misgivings, those will need to be tested in court if they are to shift any of the results in any considerable direction.

As the numbers came through, the situation was hijacked by different interests and used to promote agendas inimical to the well-being of Nigeria and Nigerians. People were ready to purvey all sorts of assumptions about tribalism, religion, region and every differentiating element that gives substance that atrocious idea of some Sovereign National Conference.

Nigeria will endure beyond us

In 2014, Nigeria as an entity will be 100 years old, there are few Nigerian living that saw that day, as an independent country, it has existed for 50 years apart from the years of the civil war between 1967 and 1970; we are now 41 years beyond that time with a majority of our estimated 150 million citizens being under the age of 41.

In essence, we need to find ways to unite, co-exist, collaborate and band together as the nation that preceded many of us and make it work as the entity known as Nigeria and assume with pride the identity of Nigerian.

As far as the elections are concerned, we need to debunk a number of fallacies before they take root and destroy our common purpose as we resolve to make Nigeria great and progress towards achieving its potential.

Arbitrary Nigerian Divisions

I have used source material from the Nigeria Election Coalition website [1] and worked on it to present the data that I discuss in this blog. The graphic beneath this blog supports my analysis.

I will first deal with the notion that the Nigeria was split in half with a North-South divide in terms of votes between PDP and CPC.

Nigeria is divided into 6 geo-political regions [2] namely, North-Central (NC), North-East (NE), North-West (NW), South-East (SE), South-South (SS) and South-West (SW).

Majorities and thresholds

In terms of majorities per state, CPC took 12 states concentrated in the NC, NE and NW regions, ACN took 2 states in the SW region and PDP took 23 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) in 5 regions except the NW.

However, in terms if exceeding the constitutional requirement for over 25% of the votes cast in the states, CPC got 17 states including the FCT in 3 regions where they already have their majorities, ACN got 4 states in the SW region and PDP took 33 states including the FCT in all 6 regions.

In the NE region where the PDP had 3 states under 25%, the PDP still made an average of 34.54% for that region compared to CPC’s 57.63, in the NW where PDP was always beaten into second place; PDP came away with 32.13% compared to CPC’s 60.26%.

When the whole northern regions of NC, NE and NW are taken together, PDP takes 42.66% of the vote to CPC’s 49.61% where they are supposedly strong.

Between regions and nations

According the Machiavellian psephologists, the south is probably the PDP’s stronghold with PDP taking the over 94% in the SE and SW regions of 11 states except Edo State where they bucked the trend with 87.28% and this was the odd state where CPC managed a rather high 2.86%.

CPC had no showing in the South with 0.37, 0.89% and 4.76% for the SE, SS and SW regions respectively and this compares quite unfavourably with PDP’s 98.00%, 95.97% and 57.80% in the same regions. ACN which apparently has the SW region as its stronghold only managed 34.38%.

It goes without saying that CPC is a stronger regional party in the NE and NW geo-political regions but it does not leave PDP far behind in the North as it does not even make a respectable appearance in the South.

One can conclude that PDP offers the promise of a united Nigeria than any of its rivals as it has a good national spread with trouncing majorities in its strongholds of the South.

The warped notion of a divided Nigeria does not pass the muster if viewed through the prism of PDP and it means ACN and CPC have a lot of work to do make inroads in regions outside their strongholds.

What religious divide?

Whilst the traditional Muslim north is concentrated in the NE and NW regions the CPC takes 58.95% of the vote to 33.34% for the PDP – maybe a beating in political terms but PDP is quite visible without doubt.

So, there again, we find that the religious divide when viewed from the CPC perspective is there but not as stark as to make it a case for Nigeria’s division along religious lines.

I would suggest that Nigeria is probably more united than we ever thought it was under one party and it shows what other parties need to do, they need to seek a common platform, merge, consolidate, compromise and work on a consensus or the ruling party will forever rule Nigeria in perpetuity.

Whether there are Nigerians in opposition parties able to put country before self remains to be seen but there is evidence to the contrary.

Enthusiasm and apathy abound

The highest number of voters came out in the NW region with 10,800,075 people representing a 53.75% turnout, the highest percentage turnout was in the SS region with 67.96% representing 6,339,316 voters.

The SW seems to be the most apathy-ridden with just 32.90% voter turnout adding up to 4,613,712 voters and a classic case of the SW abdicating its civic responsibility in a matter of national importance.

All other regions had over a 50% voter turnout apart from the NC region with 46.28%. The state with the most registered voters was Lagos State with 6,108,069 people but only 1,945,044 bothered to get up, the most voters came from Kano State with 2,673,228 voting out of a registered 5,027,297 voters.

The state most excited about this tranche of Nigeria Decides was Bayelsa State, from where the incumbent President hails with a 86.61% voter turnout compared to 28.01% from Ogun State which has suffered the throes of despicable megalomania in the hands of an ex-President, a departing governor and the Speaker of the House of Representatives – the melee must have turned people completely off politics and that is a shame.

Understandable grievances

When you look at the kind of turnouts across the states and especially in the North where the numbers were higher but hardly reflected in the same inclinations of the South, the voters might well be aggrieved if the numbers across the nation do not go their way when you consider their enthusiasm, their willingness and readiness to participate in electing a new leader.

If the bulk of voters were in the North, they would have expected their votes to make the majority for whoever takes the spoils for the Presidency but their patron never crossed the rivers to the south and so the fault lies with that party rather than the people.

The ruling party is ready to rule

People might have all sorts of opinions about the ruling party and it is not one that I have found much inclination to support but the reality in Nigeria is no other party is making inroads across the nation to give the ruling party a real run for their money.

The opposition parties were ill-prepared, poorly managed and lacking in national purpose, the best they could hope for is reduce the regional footprints of the ruling party, it was a rather big ask to expect any of the opposition parties to unseat the ruling party in a presidential contest in 2011.

If others must rule

I would hope the opposition parties work to seize a number of gubernatorial seats from the ruling party, dominate a few more State Assemblies to bring them closer to the people and take the bigger share of the remaining 19 Senate and 48 House of Representative seats to be contested on the 26^th of April, 2011.

In closing, the results show a nation that is one and whole, strong and united, sound and able to choose a leader that we hope will really use the mandate he has received in credible elections to change Nigeria for the better.

I believe in a place called Nigeria, what say you?

Sources

[1] Presidential Election Results: Nigeria Election Coalition:

[2] Answers.com - List of Nigeria geo political zones