My Pages
Wednesday, 4 September 2013
Opinion: How we are losing the #ChildNotBride debate to Senator Yerima
Sunday, 1 September 2013
Nigeria: Senator Yerima's Child Is a Bride on Friday the 6th of September 2013
Friday, 9 March 2012
Editorial: How do we capture the desire we all have for Nigeria?
“May I suggest to the Executive Secretary of FCDA, who has the Abuja Master Plan and the Coordinator of Abuja Metropolitan Management Council to rename this place as Goodluck Jonathan District.” He started [1].
“This is because we have not named any district after any president in the past. The president I know is President Goodluck Jonathan and the president I know that is bringing good luck to me and to Nigerians is President Goodluck Jonathan.” He then said.
“Therefore, by the powers conferred on me, I change the name of this district to Goodluck Jonathan District.” He concluded.
Friday, 14 October 2011
Editorial: Nigerian Government Dishonesty About Fuel Subsidy
The Fuel Subsidy Debate
The Nigerian Social Media space has been considering the possibility of Nigerians waking up from their docility and acceptance of everything thrown at them by their indifferent government to the inspiration of their own Arab Spring early next year.
This has been predicated by the decision of the government to remove subsidies from Premium Motor Spirit what we generally call fuel subsidy early next year.
The chatter has really been confounded by the situation where over decades there have been threats and salami-sliced implementations of the removal but no one is particularly sure of how much that subsidy really is, that it has become some imaginary slush fund of ready cash that the government suggests it will plough back into the economy taking cognisance of the effects such a removal might have on the working classes.
The Truth About Our Government
Sadly, the government has never really had a track record of ploughing oil profits back into the pockets of Nigerians except in the mid-70s after which plunder and squander has been the tack of those in leadership with little consideration of the bottom-line and particular welfare of the generality of the people – there are points for argument in the previous statement but little to dispute in terms of results.
Fundamentally, the fuel subsidy is literally the substrate of the totality of the Nigerian economy, it will touch on every aspect of life in relation to prices for food, goods, transport and every other service apart from the inflationary pressures it will present, but those issues are best left to central bankers and economists whilst one deals with a few other brass tacks.
Plans or Fables?
As a producer of petroleum products, it is bordering on the atrocious that Nigeria imports about 85% of its refined fuel needs because its existing four refineries are poorly managed and are lacking in serious productive capacity which means that the federal government subsidies imported fuel to the tune of $4 billion annually. [TransparencyNG]
Commonsense will suggest that the long-term goal of the government will be to facilitate, encourage or sponsor raising our refined fuel capacity to levels that will ensure that the subsidy expended in imports is radically reduced, at least that is what informed the signing of the memorandum of understanding with the China State Construction Engineering Corporation in May last year to build refineries in Lagos, Kebbi and Bayelsa States at the cost of $23 billion. [TransparencyNG][China in Africa][BBC News]
Whilst it is interesting to note the activity of the Chinese in building refineries in Ghana, Niger and Nigeria, what made interesting news a few months ago was the idea that Niger might get way ahead of Nigeria in commissioning its own refineries and end up exporting refined fuel to Nigeria. [All Africa]
How Much Is The Subsidy?
Besides, it appears no one is sure of what the cost of subsidising fuel is, the Central Bank in its MPC Meeting minutes suggested that the cost was about $6 billion, the on-going debate in the Nigerian Senate suggests the Federal Government budgeted NGN 240 billion ($1.54 billion) for subsidies in 2011 but have found that cost inflated to NGN 1.5 trillion ($9 6 billion) in what is a looking like a typical Nigerian scam. [CBN (PDF) Page 3][All Africa]
This amazing discrepancy should have heads rolling faster than when the Bastille movement chopped off heads in the French revolution, but none such will happen because the matter of responsibility leading on to accountability is just absent in Nigerian governance.
As an aside, the real big cost of governance sits within the profligate nature of our Federal Government, the abuse of security votes at state government level and the exorbitance of our legislature that consumes over 25% of our Federal Government overheads without essentially being a productive sector of our economy.
Indonesia Caught in Denials
Much as the idea of building more refining capacity in Nigeria does not seem to appeal to those resolute in finding another largesse to nudge their greedy snouts into, what adds insult to injury in spite of the now seemingly white elephant plans to build refineries in Nigeria is the news that Nigeria plans to invest Rp 24 trillion (US$2.68 billion) in Indonesia to build three refineries. [Jakarta Post]
The Nigerian Government has gone to great lengths to deny this report, but one has to ask why Indonesia will dream up such a scheme if there were no iota of truth in the same. The Nigerian Government unfortunately for all its protestations has a Matilda Complex about it, its propensity for denying fact and defending lies is legendary especially with the instrument of Social Media personnel it has employed for propaganda, obfuscation, distraction and alienation. [All Africa][AkinBlog]
Our Insurrection In Planning
It has become known that any opposition to the government is quickly construed as unpatriotic whilst the government has perfected a complacency of siege mentality proffering more excuse than reason for any action or inaction they have found themselves in.
At the end of the day, the reasonable thing about fuel subsidy is for Nigeria to build and sustain its refining capacity by whatever means encourages that trajectory and it is only after that is put in place that the desire to remove the fuel subsidy can be justified.
Nigerians have two and a half long months to put everything in place to start off their justifiable insurrection against a moribund, ineffective government in détente and inertia, for once, let us – Arise, O Compatriots and heed a call for a democracy that is fair, just, honest and true.
Monday, 3 October 2011
Editorial: Legislating for the Unforeseeable of Same-Sex Marriage
Some background
And so the Nigerian Senators having spent 46 of the first 100 days of this legislative term in recess resumed the active duty of promulgating serious legislation which last week included the Same Gender Marriage (Prohibition) Bill 2011.
The bill after much lively debate passed its second reading, but it behoves one to examine the purpose and intent of such a bill in Nigeria today.
It is quite evident that in much of Africa a swathe of fundamentalist religious fervour has swept through many countries endangering the lives of homosexuals. In Uganda, for the past few years, not only has the clamour to criminalise homosexuality rang out, the punishments to be meted out included the possibility of the death penalty.
Tolerated impunity in Africa
In January, a gay activist was bludgeoned to death by someone ready to plead gay-panic defence and his death cannot have been unrelated to the harshly virulent, bigoted and intolerant rhetoric of politicians and religious leaders alike who have with Machiavellian determination mined the mob element of the people to support the atrocious.
In South Africa with both homosexuality and same sex marriage legal, lesbians have been subjected to “corrective” rape, some have died in such attacks and I was completely repulsed beyond measure when a video was circulated of the public humiliation of a lesbian in West Africa with onlookers literally cheering on.
In other words, the concept of the acceptance of homosexuality in Africa will only be under duress from free societies in negotiations for other things than it becoming an accepted thing in society.
No danger of progressive thinking
Now, that is not to say that homosexuality does not exist in Africa, it has existed amongst humanity from time immemorial and for many in Africa it has not required the so-called influence of Western societies for it to be present and possibly thrive, no matter how little the numbers are.
That said, it will take a leap of faith bordering on the impossible to countenance a time when same sex marriage will gain any form acceptance where the law already prescribes punishments not far off from what would have made the Mosaic stoning acts almost merciful.
In the reports about the debate, as we have observed in other countries where homosexuality laws have been repealed, the legislators employed interestingly colourful language, all possibly based on conjuring the most revolting images to blackmail the unpersuaded to take sides for this attack on civil liberties.
Blackmail by revulsion
Taking root from religious law, they have conflated homosexuality with paedophilia, incest and bestiality which probably happens more amongst professed heterosexuals but it never finds mention. It would be nigh on impossible for such legislators to promulgate laws against adultery or fornication, though one is not suggesting that they have the propensity for such.
In the case of rape, when mention was made of the gang-rape and criminal assault of a lady, a member of the House of Representatives had the temerity to question the need for such discussion in the midst of other pressing Nigerian problems – it would have been wonderful for such minds to prevail on the fact that same sex marriage is not on the horizon for Nigeria in the foreseeable future and hence the debate was just an abject waste of time.
The bill was sponsored by 26 senators of which 3 were women, one of whom was once a Federal Minister of Finance; it invalidates unions and does not recognise any same sex marriages contracted in foreign countries where such is legal.
Witnesses criminalised more
What is quite amusing about the penalties is where the subjects of the “solemnisation” of the marriage are liable to 3 years of imprisonment whilst witnesses to such an event face either a term of 5 years imprisonment or a fine of NGN 2,000 or both.
In terms of groups, the fine is limited to NGN 50,000. What is confusing about what is patently a bad law is that it appears the same-sex marriage participants are not as severely punished as the witnesses to such an event – there are no two ways of stating that a bad law punishes observers more than the actors – it is radically and patently flawed whilst at the same time unfortunate that supposedly learned legislators are blinded by moral fury so as to be oblivious of the miscarriage of justice that looms in the wake of this outrageously condemnable stance.
You have to ask if the stenographers or publishers of such laws for debate take time to review their copy, proofread the documents and ensure that ambiguity and incorrect spelling, context or content is accounted for.
In the section about the interpretation of the law, it suggests that “Same Gender Marriage” means the coming together of persons of the same sex with the purpose of leaving (sic) [I suppose living was intended here.] together as husband and wife or for other purposes of [a] same sexual (sic) [sex] relationship.
Unintended consequence already evident
However, let us not be given to unnecessary pedantry and look at the issues here; in the prevailing circumstances our Senators have just legislated for a mirage with the hope that they have handled an issue that hardly even if remotely touches any sense of reality – this bill shows an idleness of purpose with people so highly paid but lacking in principle, priority and focus to tackle more thorny issues that affect Nigeria and Nigerians at large.
Human-beings will always be human-beings and they will satisfy whatever feeling and persuasion they have regardless of the laws that encroach into the morality of society to attack an almost invisible minority.
The greater danger will be in the many who because of societal pressures will attempt to present public heterosexual lives whilst they pursue secret homosexual liaisons in what is commonly known as being on the Down-Low.
Societies that promulgate moral laws will always suffer from the almost schizophrenic tendency for people to live double lives, men or women with their families eventually getting caught up in literally unspeakable circumstances.
The wheels of social justice in reverse
The Same Gender Marriage (Prohibition) Bill is not one Nigeria needs at any time, it is legislating for the unforeseeable in anticipation of the improbable where there are no extenuating circumstances of evidence available to show that the country is vulnerable or prone to any such development.
Even in countries where Same Sex Marriage is legal, the homosexuals are not flocking to the altar in droves, it takes a lot to develop relationships between people regardless of gender-pairing and somehow our learned legislators in attempting to appear knowledgeable have just exposed they utter ignorance of a side of human nature they are completely clueless of – if we have such lack of expertise addressing even more pertinent legislative issues in Nigeria, we are the much poorer for it and we are sadder for the brigandage that allows for so much to be paid for such inconsequential and irrelevant service to Nigerians.
In the end, where we have allowed moral laws to trample on the rights of other who have committed in the eyes of this unjust law victimless crimes, the wheel of negative social justice reforms is never stationary, it continues to roll until to encroaches on other rights abrogated by reason of some moral law or code – we already see that our leadership have to compelled to speak up for victims of sexually violence, they probably will not readily condemn violence against others as a result of this bill as we inure ourselves from the plight of others.
Acknowledgements
The basic document of the Same Gender Marriage (Prohibition) Bill 2011 the news reports of the debating the bill appeared on ThisDayLive and The Nation newspapers.
Friday, 6 May 2011
Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review XIII - Ideas for Electoral Reform
As we savour the returns
As the election season ends in Nigeria it is important to lay out in some form a whole series of ideas for electoral reform to improve on the experiences we had for the elections in April 2011.
It goes without saying that despite the view of cynics and sceptics about the elections a lot was done to make them freer, fairer and more credible than any we have had before. Even the much heralded 1993 elections were said to be manipulated [1] as averred by the then chairman of the defunct National Electoral Commission of Nigeria (NECON), Professor Okon Uya.
The length of the season
It is however the prerogative of those who are aggrieved by this electoral season to avail themselves of the tribunal process with a quest for justice devoid of desperation and considerate of the fact that Nigeria must not be held back primarily for the satisfaction of the ambitions of the few.
These are however the matters that should become part of the discussion for electoral reform and implementation before the end of the next legislative term.
The electoral season should span at least a 12 month period allowing for voter registration, register inspection, party registration, candidate registration, campaign season, voting, results publication and expedited electoral dispute resolution.
Reusable voter registration
It is unlikely that Nigeria is ready for an electronic voting system; however, the voter registration needs to be amalgamated with the National Identity Card Scheme with added biometric information and a fixing with local government area based on the residential address within 6 months of the elections.
Consideration must be given to chipping the identity card and probably adding RFID data that stores allocated Polling Unit which can be updated if the voter changes their address at the local electoral office.
Voters only need validate their registration and eligibility to vote in what should be termed registration clearance months allowing for new voters to be added, the dead to be eliminated, circumstances to be updated and so on.
Competence over age
In terms of eligibility for office, consideration should be given to at least the age barriers to elective office by at least 5 years, the talent pool of the youth who in other endeavours are competent, able and successful are unfairly excluded by reason of age from elective office as political jobbers hog positions indefinitely.
Considering the pool of talent in the Nigerian population term limits should be set on all elective offices to allow others to contribute to nation building, it may also foster better mentoring rather than godfatherism and the nepotism that currently plagues the system.
Term limits
No one should have the exclusive inclination to think no other Nigerian can try for office and possibly perform better, after a set number of terms, two for executive office and a maximum of three for legislative office the said politicians have to give way.
The candidates for office should be known within a minimum of 90 days before the elections allowing for INEC to adequately inform the electorate of the choices they have. All nomination disputes must be completed at least 60 days before the elections.
INEC should have the right to penalise the abuse of equal access to media and resources to engage with the public doing the campaign process. Part of the sanctions that INEC can use should include barring the offending party’s candidate from contesting the elections.
Voting and sanctions
The modified open ballot system should be retained however the reporting process should have the paper trail as well as the use of mobile data transfers from the Polling Unit direct to the INEC headquarters.
Where electoral malpractice has been discovered and fully investigated to identify the culprits, the responsible party will forfeit the votes tallied, if that election remains valid, in the case there the election needs to be rescheduled, the offending party will forfeit the right to present a candidate for the reschedule election and where the offence is egregious the said party under whatever guise should be made to forfeit the right to present a candidate for the next two elections at the level when the crime was committed.
This means a party might forfeit the right for presenting candidates for the State House of Assembly, House of Representatives, The Senate, Governorship or Presidency.
Named persons for each party should be held criminally responsible for electoral offences committed by their party members and they by the strength of the law should not be able to abdicate their responsibilities.
Sanctions like this should greatly minimise incidents of electoral rigging.
Where reports of intimidation, harassment, bias, tampering or observer access is restricted, INEC should err on the side of fairness and make results from such locations tentative pending investigation with the likelihood of those results being voided.
Dispute resolution
After the results are announced and contestants find need to contest the results, all disputes must be completed with 365 days of the election under dispute.
No incumbent whose election is being contested should serve in electoral office longer than one-quarter of the complete term of office at which point the dispute must have been resolved or a new election should hold.
If the incumbent is found to have engaged in electoral misconduct, that person will not be eligible to contest in the new election and the party the person represents should not be able to present a candidate for that election for the next two terms.
The measures have to be draconian with effective deterrents to ensure all parties and their officials play by the rules. The civil courts with respect to electoral matters should work in concert with INEC to bolster its independence and foster a surer democracy by upholding the letter of the law to its full remit.
Miscellaneous reform issues
The use of ad-hoc staff should be encouraged but INEC should expedite all means of payment and provide the maximum security for all engaged staff.
An electoral recall process should be set up to test a vote of confidence in the elected office at mid-term, if the incumbent is unseated the newly elected person shall only serve out the remaining period of the term and have to contest to retain the office.
Source
[1] The Sun News On-line | Every election since 1922 has been manipulated –Okon Uya, ex-NECON boss
Reviews written about the elections
Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review I
Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review II - New Election Dates
Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review III - Who votes on Saturday.
Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review IV - Part I to Voting
Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review IV - Part II - We can
Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review V
Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review VI - Report to Prevent Rigging
Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review VII - Change!
Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review VIII - A President-Elect
Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review IX - Analysing the Presidential Results
Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review X - The North
Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review XI - A functioning democracy?
Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review XII - Altogether acceptable
Sunday, 1 May 2011
Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review XII - Altogether acceptable
Looking at the elections
With the conclusion of the elections on the 28th of April 2011, one now has the opportunity to give a general review of the conduct and the results of what was historic in Nigerian history.
So many opinions have been proffered by many about what these elections mean for Nigeria’s future, however, critically, compared to elections held before; these are probably the freest, fairest and most credible ever administered in Nigeria.
It does not mean they were perfect, they were not and they were far from ideal but a considerable improvement time and again at each time that people offered to elect their representatives.
There are a few more results to be released, some inconclusive results and supplemental elections to hold in certain districts but the elections in the main are over.
Where we started
The newly reorganised Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) had just about 10 months to pull off this turn-around in electoral fortunes that had long been besmirched with incompetence, mismanagement, fraud and corruption.
The voters registration exercise was first a logistical nightmare that INEC attempted to refocus and manage towards the successful registration of over 73 million voters.
The political landscape was a bit fraught for the opposition which for the last 4 years had remained majorly regional and had only made superficial changes to present a national front such that the merging of the opposition parties would still have been a piddling challenge to the ruling party, however, acolytes of these parties harboured bizarre levels of optimism that had no basis in realistic opportunity for success.
The structures implemented
In earlier reviews, it could be said the that theoretically INEC had put in place a whole series of checks and balances to foster credible elections along with engaging the voting public in participating in ensuring their votes counted.
There were loopholes and flaws in the process which need to be improved on in future elections whilst those who now find fault with the system are best advised to avail themselves of the processes in place for the aggrieved.
Social networking featured greatly in the observance and monitoring of the elections, some of the decisions taken by INEC to review the results and reconsider outcomes came from evidence gathered by non-INEC personnel.
Twitter served as both a useful informative platform as well as one in which reputations will be made or tarnished as it was also a vehicle for propaganda, rumour, untruths, lies and misinformation.
The parties and their options
There were three sets of elections in order for the National Assembly, the Presidency and State representation that included the governors and the state assemblies. In the first only three parties really challenged for positions and those were the ruling PDP, then ACN and ANPP with CPC, APGA and LP bringing up the rear.
In the Presidential elections CPC presented the greater challenge winning a good number of states in the far Northern Nigeria only to end up seizing a state for the governorship in the North-Central region where it lagged the ruling party a week earlier.
It goes without saying that the CPC was created mainly as a vehicle for the presidential aspirations of a messianic symbol and not much else, Nigeria would have been plunged into a stalemate of sots to have a CPC president having to work with elected representatives of other parties holding different principles, agendas and motives.
Much as Nigeria requires competence and probity in leadership, it mostly needs the apparatus of government that is not hamstrung with sapping all goodwill necessary to get the job done – the opposition was poorly organised and ill-prepared to take on the machine of the ruling party nationally and so we have the results that leave the ruling party quite dominant national whilst somewhat weakened in some regional areas.
The election low-point
The violence that arose after the presidential elections were unfortunate and poorly addressed by all those who had leadership positions to contain and ameliorate the enveloping crisis.
The Commanded-in-Chief should have been apprised of the possibilities of unrest and put in place measures to pre-empt the situation and once it had begun, he should have moved swiftly to deploy security forces to quell the problems before it lead to the unnecessary destruction of property and even more the loss of innocent lives prominent amongst which were members of the National Youth Service Corps who had been called into the greater national service of being ad-hoc staff of INEC.
At the same time, it exposed the difference between a general being able to command an army failing in battle as opposed to a messianic leader who could not control a mob that failed to attain its aims.
That became the low-point of elections that at one time were being applauded as one of the best ever conducted in Nigeria raising the esteem of the country internationally.
Moving on from this
It is the prerogative of those who care to maintain a cynical and curmudgeonly view of the elections and the continued dominance of the ruling party which is unfortunate for some.
However, we are presented with another 4 years of governance that have been tested by a more credible electioneering process of whom we are within rights to demand accountability, action and responsiveness to the needs of the electorate.
It is incumbent on the opposition to form a broader based national profile which should be evidenced in the performance of their elected representatives, but the hope of all Nigerians is that anyone with a mandate respects the privilege and gets to work for the people regardless of the party they are representing.
The foundation is laid
Nigeria is a project in flux and constant pressures of conflict, change and possible division, we Nigerians all have stewardship of a country given to us by our founding fathers to hold in trust for those who follow after us, to whom we should bestow a better, more prosperous, thriving and growingly assertive nation ready to take its place as the Giant of Africa and the land of opportunity for all regardless of circumstances of birth or fortunes of life.
The foundation laid by these elections are starting point, they still need underpinning, some reinforcements and viable structures to home the flourishing of Nigeria’s potential, it would be shame to squander the next four years in indifference, apathy or destructive criticism of those who have power today to make a difference in people’s lives.
The pursuit of justice must continue, however, not to the detriment of allowing systems to function effectively and efficiently as we demand and expect that they should.
If there is a greater call to national duty, it remains the ability and wiliness to put the nation before self for the good of the nation and the people at home and abroad.
We need to believe in the Nigeria that we have and work to build it into a greater nation.
Reference material
Where we were 4 years ago Before we lose the Nigerian elections gracefully
The comments about the results are derived from the following sources:
The INEC Nigeria homepage offers a summary of the validated results of the elections.
Punch on the Web: Election Portal | Results of 2011 Presidential and other elections
Home : Nigeria Election Coalition presents an another analysis of the results announced.
Reviews written about the elections
Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review I
Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review II - New Election Dates
Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review III - Who votes on Saturday.
Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review IV - Part I to Voting
Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review IV - Part II - We can
Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review V
Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review VI - Report to Prevent Rigging
Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review VII - Change!
Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review VIII - A President-Elect
Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review IX - Analysing the Presidential Results
Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review X - The North
Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review XI - A functioning democracy?
Other issues that arose concerning the elections
Nigeria: A Primer on INEC Elections in April 2011 – Originally published at NigeriansTalk.Org – A compendium of information regarding the elections.
Nigeria: Table of INEC Electoral Chain of Custody – Documents the paper trail put in place to handle the elections and manage the results.
Nigeria: In Support of Attahiru Jega of INEC – Reviewing the mammoth task that INEC faced in trying to offer free, fair and credible elections in Nigeria this year.
Thought Picnic: My Nigerian Philosophy – What informs my stance on Nigerian issues today.
Wednesday, 27 April 2011
Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review XI - A functioning democracy?
The quest for a credible opposition
This must have been one of the funniest blogs [1] I have read in the Economist which started with the line-dancing equivalent of handling a hat and ended with a very serious message. “Democracy does not function without a serious, credible and decent opposition.”
That hit home so hard that I crafted and posted the following tweet. "Democracy does not function without a serious, credible and decent opposition." @TheEconomist #NigeriaDecides to do without one.
The gubernatorial elections were conducted in 24 States yesterday with Kaduna and Bauchi States scheduled to hold on the Thursday, the other 10 states [2] (Adamawa, Anambra, Bayelsa, Cross River, Edo, Ekiti, Kogi, Ondo, Osun and Sokoto) were not contested still having partial terms to run.
However, the elections for the State Houses of Assembly in 34 States but Kaduna and Bauchi were held as well as the 19 Senate and 48 House of Representative seats which were postponed from the 1st tranche that held on the 9th of April.
The ruling party rules wide
Nigeria struggles at being a multi-party state with the pervasive representation of the ruling PDP which before these elections had 26 state governors [3] out of 36, 85 out of 109 Senators and 260 out of 360 members in the House of Representatives in the National Assembly [4].
The footprint of the ruling was big and widespread; there was no opposition party or coalition of opposition parties that had the fleeting chance of overturning these thumping majorities.
The best that could be hoped for was to work on unseating the ruling party in many places and thereby reduce their influence in all spheres of Nigerian life but the presidency was still that of PDP to keep for the next 4 years.
A frustrated CPC President
In the presidential elections help just over a week ago, the CPC party mounted a good challenge [5] but technically, to have expected to overthrow PDP at the ballot box in 2011 was close to a pipe dream fuelled with herbs.
CPC, an offshoot of ANPP, had no political representation whatsoever before these elections and having gained some seats in the National Assembly a CPC President of the Federation of Nigeria would have had the almost impossible task of run his agenda through a hostile and aggressively counterintuitive assembly.
The CPC President might will attempt to rule by executive decree and fiat to keep things going with such provisions exist but it would have been a throwback to our old military times as a frustrated president with all his good intentions but lack of powers of persuasion toward a strident legislature would have found and Nigeria would have been so badly served.
Fixing wrong aims
A leading politician needs a working majority but also an effective opposition such that radical reforms would require the persuasion of the some of the opposition through compromise, consensus or deals – that is politics.
In essence, the opposition parties for the 2011 should have had the strategy of extending their reach to a national presence rather than their regional predominance; a feat that they have hardly pulled off and it goes without saying that parties would need to merge to offer Nigeria the semblance of a serious, credible and decent opposition.
The elections
It is against this backdrop that the election violence after the presidential elections was unfortunate and that might well affect that ability for the opposition parties to gain new acreage as people out of fear and terror might have stayed away allowing for the status quo of Nigerian elections to thrive like ballot box snatching, intimidation of voters and observers alike and incredulous results.
The goodwill and praise that mounted after the first two Saturdays of elections seems to have dissipated into fear, acrimony, death and destruction, the fallout has yet to be fully appreciated but its effects will be far-reaching.
Many of the ad-hoc INEC staff comprised of NYSC members failed to show up for duty because they did not receive convincing assurances of safety and security, where they did, some were bullied, harassed, beaten and possibly came to great harm.
Bombs went off in the North and in the South-East there was major unrest whilst in the South-West some political big-wigs strutted around when they should not have and there were signs of apathy again.
The turnout when the figures are tallied might well be lower as reports of voting without accreditation were made on the Twitter hashtag of #NigeriaDecides.
Sitting back
Meanwhile, INEC is yet to declare results for 18 out of 90 Senate seats and 78 out of the 312 House of Representative seats contested on the 9th of April, it shows how much energy has been expended in the presidential elections to the detriment of the elections that really do matter for making an effective opposition.
The next few days would determine what Nigeria has really decided will be its government for next four years, there is really no case to be made to successfully overturn the presidential election results but there is a bigger case to be made for the emergence initially of an opposition coalition of parties with a national representation and hopefully the evolution of that into a working political party where first and foremost the country is put before self.
Sources
[1] The 2012 Republican primary: The field thins | The Economist
[2] 234Next | UPDATE: The April 26 elections
[3] List of Nigerian state governors - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
[4] Politics of Nigeria - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
[5] Nigeria: #NigeriaDecides Election Review IX - Analysing the Presidential Results
