Thought Picnic: Beyond conscientious objection to fighting needless wars

The summary of my views

I was asked what my position was about the Russia and Ukraine crisis by a mentor of mine, and it allowed me to find the opportunity to transcribe from the notes I took down in anger on Friday night but was unsure of how to convey in a blog.

My answer was “We need to get to a point in human civilisation when young men can refuse to battle for recalcitrant old men who cannot settle their scores with some maturity. I hope Ukraine survives the onslaught.”

Before my viewpoint was taken as uncommitted to apparent indifference, I went on to say, “In fact, my stand is it is an unnecessary war for which Vladimir Putin who has a warped idea of national sovereignty and areas of influence should be taught an unforgettable lesson.” Obviously, it goes without saying that, If Ukraine has no self-determination on what alliances it can have, is it a sovereign state or a satellite of Russia?”

Between sacrifice and slaughter

Having spent 4 years in secondary boarding school, the prospect of a regimented life has never since appealed to me. There is indeed a high calling to serve and the discipline that it entails along with the purpose that defines it, but where do you draw the line between being ready to take the sacrifice and being sent to the slaughter?

In January 1983, in a conversation with my father, he said these words, “There was a time Nigeria was worth dying for, that time has passed.” It so happens my parents were in the UK during the Nigerian Civil War and once it was over, they could not wait to get back to Nigeria to contribute to rebuilding the nation.

To my mind, all war is at its heart totally unreasonable, the inability of leaders and / or older and apparently mature men to have a meeting of minds that they are ready to send the sons of others to battlefields whilst they play war games in genteel surroundings totally oblivious of the depth of suffering on the populace is an atrocity at best.

Keeping our men from bad men

The result of this is we are called upon to honour the war dead as some greater cause of humanity has been achieved and unstoppable progress has been bequeathed to civilisation never to go to war again. It is a lie, for lives are needlessly wasted as cannon fodder with war ending at exhaustion of will, men, or ammunition. We are in terms the most uncivilised in war, like animals you have only found more sophisticated ways to kill each other to a standstill.

I would hope we would reach a point where the men who disagree should sort it amongst themselves and the young men whose blood, they are ready to exsanguinate in the remote battlefields, should say no. This is not conscientious objection but a call to common sense or order, exhaust diplomacy and continue to talk to any agreement that you can reach without having to shed blood.

Beyond conscientious objection

For I desire a time when they, the valiant and strong would say, no, we are not going to fight your dirty, senseless, needless, and unnecessary wars. Our lives matter more than to become sacrificial lambs on the altars of your maniacal devilish egos.

Keep your medals, we do not need the glory, stuff your patriotic rhetoric, your folded national flags, and grand memorials to soldiers unknown. With no men going to war, what would men do given no other option than to talk and resolve things?

Too many men have with the power to send others to their deaths not exhausted the possibilities that the maturation of human civilisation and discourse can offer. Maybe something of the idealist and pacifist in me has taken a long trek from realism, it is however not to be wished away as impossible.

Opinion: Ukraine is a test of leadership in short supply

Putin is possessed

One is not known for commentary on international politics, nor am I informed enough to postulate on the historical relevance that leads to contemporary events being let loose on Ukraine. However, from what I have seen so far, something has rumbled the graves of Napoleon Bonaparte, Adolf Hitler, and Joseph Stalin, awakening their malevolent spirits to possess by legion Vladimir Putin.

The optics are there, the inordinately large tables, the command of his court by distance rather than a collegiate cabinet is the metaphor for a humongous throne with an absolute arch-emperor before whom a mirror would fail to reflect reality but profuse flattery that apparent trickery and genius would no doubt lead to a catastrophic fall through missteps that humans who have suspected themselves of inviolable omnipotence have come to the harsh truth of both mortality and transience of power.

It is just wrong

There is no doubt that we all have to hold our nerve on this matter that we cannot in the 21^st Century have a potentate marauding the northern hemisphere acquiring lands and nations in a quest for apparent security in buffer countries that immediately brings them to the borders of the threat they rail against. It might seem smart now, but our collective resolve needs to be demonstrated not in the sophistry of words but in the deftness of effective action.

Meanwhile, the traffic of 24-hour of rolling news has its toll on those of us who can only depend on our politicians to act for the sake of the preservation of humanity from untrammelled barbarity, wanton vandalism, atrocious impunity, and incurable madness. I switched my radio from BBC Radio 4 which is full of commentary, much of which is talk shop and vain jangling to BBC Radio 3 where I find the calming strains of classical music and absent myself for longer moments from the psychosis that is engulfing our world.

Indeed, there were other issues the world has been at fault for not addressing and we need to come back to look at them with a commitment for better peace and resolution in those troubled lands, but whataboutery is an expensive hobby. What is upon us is Ukraine, and it needs to be arrested with everything we have the power to do now.

Leadership is required now

My heart is with Ukraine, much as I have the luxury of being far away from the midst of conflict that touches me through energy prices and the cost of living that I am fortunate to have some means to weather. If we fail to contain and push back the menace of Putin, we would have unleashed what would have been the prospect of Hitler winning his war. It does not bear thinking of. It calls for leadership, statesmanship, political nous, and nerve. I hope the world leaders are up to the task.

If anything, like we have seen with the pandemic, we might choose comical and entertaining leaders in times of peace, but when they are tested in times of adversity and taxing circumstances, how many innocent lives would have been lost to the wrong choice of leaders we have made? If anything, competence is needed when it matters, and it matters more today.

Opinion: This is a time for outrage at the direct hits

A hypothetical

If the presumed BUK surface-to-air missile system shot from the territory of pro-Russian rebels in Ukraine had whizzed past Malaysia Airlines flight MH17, it might have been reported sighted and considered a near-miss with some expressing a bit of outrage at such a reckless activity.

Alas! It was a direct hit and with it 298 souls were lost, the consequence of which should have precipitated such outrage at the needless, careless and atrocious waste of human life wrought by bungling rebels with Russia's support.

Then again

Down in the Middle East, literally all the rockets fired from Gaza into Israel, whilst terrifying and capable of causing carnage with the loss of life and damage to goods and property, they are in their thousands, near misses. We must for all intents and purposes express outrage at the crude militancy that is no match to Israel’s firepower and organisation.

Then, you watch the missiles fired from Israel into Gaza that has no defence weaponry, literally every missile has been a direct hit, whether intentional or not, people are losing their lives in the hundreds and this calls for widespread outrage, because of the carnage caused, that is presented as a defence.

Between terror and killings

Now, I can understand the terror of missiles coming into Israeli cities, terrifying all, young and old; the government needs to have some strategy and game plan to deal with this nuisance, though I have my doubt that even with the incursion into Gaza, the missiles can be stopped entirely, for there is a deep-seated issue of unrest that is not been addressed towards achieving peace for Israel and its neighbours.

Yet, the terrified can be becalmed, for near-misses belie a stark reality along with a sense of survival. Direct hits are a different story, the people are dead and that is the end of their story.

Blood for fear barbarity

The exchange system between Israel and Palestine of avenging fear within the borders of Israel with the blood of Palestinians in their cooped-up regions as they are ring-fenced from Israel with settlements, borders and walls cannot be the roadmap to peace for all concerned.

What has developed is escalating belligerence with no prospect of peace on the horizon. More pertinently, until we are ready to express unbiased outrage at the needless loss of life anywhere in the world and make perpetrators of the killings accountable for their actions, we acquiesce and grant immunity for more impunity to those have taken the level of their lawless activities to an unspeakable level of atrocious violence.

We must condemn the near-misses, but the direct hits must attract the sternest criticism from all fair-minded members of our humanity as well unmitigated outrage.

Opinion: Finding the right food for the conscience - truth

"We are lying and finding sexier ways to do it." Sarah Firth

Narratives are many

Many current events in the world has forced people to take sides, speak fully persuaded of the narrative that appeals to them and that has become their truth.

Whether there are facts or evidence to support the view they espouse is another thing.

However, there is a tendency to buy into a narrative, to be identified by a Shibboleth and that becomes a sworn mantra to be recited to any that might have ears.

Know who is at fault

From the fundamentals, one can examine the sometimes odiously accepted view that a lady's dress is ultimately responsible for her being raped and that the rapist is excused, exculpated and never needing to account for the crime, that is how the seed of impunity is sown through a contrived narrative that grants immunity.

Yet, all you have to hear in any statement is the qualification, "ultimately responsible" and with that the perpetrator walks, the victim twice victimised and bereft of justice.

How we champion impunity

For decades, we have excused Israeli belligerence against its cheek by jowl Palestinian neighbours and lands adjacent, impunity reigning with the narrative of security and defence without any accountability, except to a contrived sense existential threat.

We all know Israel is there to stay, it is not under threat of extermination, even if words have been spoken to that effect, but it is a political and propaganda tool deftly used by reprehensible politicians to distract us from a deeper truth of untrammelled aggression, unspeakable atrocities and bloody injustices that make the heart ache.

We must apportion blame where it is due, whoever dropped the bomb is responsible for the carnage just as the other side is responsible solely for their own acts.

How deny the truth

I return to the analogy that regardless of the manner of dress, whether provocative or not, the rapist is responsible for the rape and that is where the law stands and where justice is sought.

Likewise, the downing of the Malaysia Airlines MH17 to Kuala Lumpur from Amsterdam was the sole criminal act of the pro-Russian rebels in eastern Ukraine, no other contrived narrative is permissible and they should be brought to book.

Provocation is not responsibility

Provocation should never become responsibility, if the provoked should choose to retaliate, the provoked should be held responsible for the consequences of their actions without dissimulation.

Therein is the matter of conscience as expressed in Sarah Firth's quote. Would we accept the lie of a contrived narrative or the truth of clear responsibility for particular actions?

I have a conscience, it has a duty to stay true by supporting the truth. It has the task of expressing my humanity of empathy, feeling, understanding and appreciating the broad spectrum of what life is.

For to know pain, suffering, injustice, cruelty and hurt is to begin to see the truth of aspects of our human wretchedness.

Most importantly we must save our consciences from being seared with narratives untrue that serves to exacerbate unconscionable impunity.

Postscript:

Sarah Firth resigned from reporting for RT today.

The Ideological Contagion of dummy capitalism

A contagion most contagious

I could not help but snigger when an analyst from Goldman Sachs appeared on CNN and depicted the possibility of some Chavez socialist ideas being taken on by other Andean states as Ideological Contagion.

Now, that is something he definitely thought of earlier, however, that is beside the point. The threat to nationalise a number of previously privatised utilities lead to the suspension of trading in the shares of a number of companies which lost between 20% to 30% of their value as investors took fright.

Evidently, many political socialists are oblivious of market economics and how capitalism works, in fact, the only Nobel Prize winner in Economics from a socialist background won on the topical issue of the theory of optimum allocation of resources – the fixation on redistribution of resources and wealth without assessing merit creates an island of states that really cannot insulate themselves from the march of globalisation. [This comment is not an exegesis on the economics of allocation of resources or the socialist contexts of Karl Marx]

Chaos borne from Communism

Many would say the fall of Communism created a more peaceful world as we relaxed from the Cold War and settled into a more destabilising war between civilisations.

The states that gave up Communism and adopted shades of democracy have also ensconced capitalism, however, none have matured in appreciating the voice of their people now have they really accepted the force and good of market economics.

Nowhere is this more evident than in Moscow through the unconscionable way they instituted an asset raid on Yukos by claiming back-taxes that bankrupted the company because the chief executive of the company chose to pitch his tent in political opposition to the president.

Force of government abuse

All those assets are now in the hands of the Russian government, but two wrongs do not make a right. The sell-off of the national chattels to influential ex-Communists and opportunistic smart cads – oligarchs - in the Yeltsin years was wrong, however, rather than seek redress through the Rule of Law (A sign of matured democracies) and due process (another sign of matured democracies), the state apparatus terrorised and appropriated with untrammelled lien every means to redress that Yukos to access to dig themselves of out the rut.

So also, we see the kind of muscle that Gazprom exerts on all foreign investment with the force of government to invalidate contracts and threat major loss of investment that investors are literally stampeded into accepting minority stakes in their major investments to remain in business in Russia.

The first gas war

Last January, we saw the distorted face of capitalism when Gazprom decided subsidies to Ukraine were no more economical and rather than present a graduated withdrawal of subsidies, we were seeing price hikes of up to 50% for economies that would literally collapse if they were to be exacted.

A resolution was reached, but not without Europe realising that their energy security was being threatened by a newcomer to capitalism who had goods to sell but no marketplace decorum.

We were introduced to a large nation that was getting drunk on being the largest exporter of gas and oil, these was now being used a tool of political leverage to emasculate the near-abroad that was adopting a more Western outlook.

Europe with more money than sense

Historically, the USSR was somewhat energy self-sufficient, when the Soviet Union broke up; the states came to an arrangement which involved subsidised exports to these former Soviet republics.

The issue of subsidy arises because another part of energy economics does not necessary relate the cost of production to the selling price, but it is more related to the affordability of the demand-led sector.

It explains why Europe is probably paying over the odds for Russian oil and this is being used as a standard of measure of non-European countries which have hardly 20% of the average GDP of EU-15, probably more in relation to EU-25 or EU-27. Gazprom had 3^rd Quarter profits increase 68% in 2005.

The second oil and gas war

This energy bullying stance came to a head in December when Gazprom decided to double the price of Belarusian fuel supplies, they came to an agreement but Russia is now being taught a lesson in understanding their means of production when trying to reach their market.

In the case of Ukraine, the pipeline was a branch off from the main European supply route, Belarus however is the trunk of the European pipeline network, and everything goes through Belarus and they are not looking to make any friends and do not care.

Gazprom in its gullibility thought they could squeeze Belarus and then expect their oil to traverse the land of Belarus without sanction, retribution or reaction, well, a tit-for-tat in which Belarus imposed crippling taxes on traversal, extracted payment with oil and Russia ended up closing the pipeline as Europe looks on helpless against the tyranny of capitalism in the hands of cretins.

Learning capitalism the hard way

If Russia cannot get its oil to its customers, it would either have to back down with egg on its face or invade Belarus and institute regime change. No matter how reviled the Belarusian president Lukashenka is, standing up to Russia would fuel the embers of nationalism and support for their president.

This would lead to a very interesting conclusion.

Then we move on to Thailand where after a military coup, the government decided to tinker with the markets by imposing currency controls to prevent the flight of capital, that day, the market fell 15%, the first time the Thai market fell so much in its 31-year history.

The ideological contagion of stupid economics

The Ideological Contagion is very much like boys trying to play the games of real men, capitalism and market economics are not levers one can push and pull in isolation, these ideas sit in a globalised setting where everyone is in a train at the top of a steep incline, one wrong pull and the thing goes hurtling down unstoppably to a demise too gruesome to record.

Russia was never ready for capitalism and they are not in school learning to do it right, it would now take an unruly dictatorship to teach the lesson that without your means of good transportation, you would be making no capital; if your goods traverse fields you do not own, you should remain good friends with that field owner.

Venezuela probably wants to get those privatised organisations on the cheap and that is best done by threatening to create the flight of capital – however, does a nationalised entity end up getting better managed for the government or do company taxes paid by a privatised entity create more revenue?

As for Thailand, the military government would find no legitimacy, they must have forgotten that the economy is no Army battalion that you can order around like some recruit in a boot camp, I am sure they have duly learnt a lesson they would not forget.

References

Gazprom’s Strategy

The Folly of Renationalisation

The Kinks In Russia's Oil Pipeline

Setting democracy ablaze with gas

Terror – an evil pre-occupation

Hardly 48 hours have past into the year 2006 and a number of uncomfortable developments are now taking place which threaten a lot more of our freedoms and liberties than the inordinate if not evil pre-occupation with the war on terror.

As usual our leaders are caught napping as their firm gaze on one issue distracts them from a bigger global picture that could creep upon us like a rolling cloud of mustard gas and envelop us like a nuclear mushroom canopy from which we have no escape.

Impossible expectations

The more obvious one is gas; this is a little battle of wills and integrity between Russia and Ukraine where hardly a week ago Ukraine was threatened with the loss of gas supplies which heretofore had been subsidised or discounted and now is to be hiked fourfold in price.

That deadline passed on New Years Day as pressure was then reduced in the gas pipelines in order to starve Ukraine of gas.

The paradox is that Russia’s gas supply network feeds most of Europe but for now passes through Ukraine where Ukraine is supposed to ethically and honestly allow gas to pass through their land to Europe even when they might be subject to privations in economy and well-being.

To expect to hold Ukraine up to a standard of international rectitude that one would hardly find examples of anywhere on earth is not only unconscionable but really laughable because Ukraine can as well close off the complete gas network and somebody somewhere will be left wanting in reputation, reliability and credibility.

Meanwhile a new pipeline is being built to bypass Ukraine into Europe through Germany where the ex-chancellor has been tapped for chairmanship of the organisation providing that service - nepotism does not become Europe just as Mr Shroeder is Mr Putin's good friend.

This is not a little local flare

This little squabble between these ex-Soviet partners is however affecting a lot more than Ukraine and Russia; countries west of this fracas are already suffering a degradation of supplies, noting that their reserves might not be sufficient enough to see through an extended gas famine.

Industries first and then probably households would be affected, and then some organisations could be asked to switch to oil which is greater pollutant than gas with its environmental consequences.

Economies would be on the wobble as gas futures reckoning for shortage could exert inflationary pressures on the European economy as a whole, whilst logistics are put in place to research for alternative gas supplies and transportation systems.

Democracy a hostage

Democracies can be put under undue pressure leading to social unrest and an unmanageable polity such that governments might not just collapse but the countries are in danger of becoming failed states from the exertion of this kind of energy starvation muscle. Classic how to create disorder.

It can be said that Ukraine is being punished for exercising their democratic right to choose who they want rather than who has been imposed from afar.

We have had strongly worded commentary from the United States State Department; however, Russia as the prospective chairman of the G-8 group of advanced economies is being appeased rather than upbraided.

The force of democratic dissent to such abuse of power reminiscent of either the Stalin times or the US 1970’s foreign policy pertaining to Central America is more a whimper and a wail than a wallop with a resounding wham!

Winning the wrong war

Here we are, winning the war on terror by preventing the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, arresting acts money laundering and trampling on civil liberties amidst the hysteria of saving lives and promoting patriotism as a more benign enemy is destabilising the life-blood of our industries, economies, comforts and democracies.

Amusingly, only little Netherlands has self-sufficient gas supplies in the whole of Europe and what is left over does not compensate for the possibility of a catastrophic weather breakdown from this Siberian ill-wind.

This is just gas, but by the time China decides to call in the loans that underpin the United States bloated budget deficit, would the death of democracy herald another world order?

The possible unexpected

You might shake your heads and say this will not happen, however, I can just see how this can be diplomatically achieved just as we have made so much progress in North Korea, Iran, Zimbabwe, Sudan (Darfur), Russia and Ukraine.

For now, our freedoms, principles and liberties are threatened more by the realities of what Russia, China and Oil-producing countries can wield than the ideologies that emanate from Al-Qaeda adherents. It is however unlikely that this would excite the attention of our ever so astute leaders.