Nigeria: The relative cost of our democracy is unsustainable

This is too dear

I have written many times about the exorbitant and probably prohibitively unsustainable cost of the democratic experiment in Nigeria and there are many reasons to be concerned for how much we pay our lawmakers on average. [Nigeria: Our Exorbitant Government]

The graph below published by the Economist is more than just an eye-opener but it is also revelatory about how political office is a parasitic drain on the national resources since politicians cannot be considered part of the economic engine of a country.

What makes this graph worthy of the most righteous indignation begging for public insurrection is not so much about what the politicians earn, but the gap in earning capacity between the citizen and the representative lawmaker.

The comparisons

Australian lawmakers earn the most at $201,200 followed by Nigeria at $189,500 and then Italy with $182,000 and the United States at $174,000 all compared to the people they represent, we find that Australian and American lawmakers earn less than 4 times the average economic activity of their countries divided by their populations (GDP per capita), Italians just about double that and Nigerian lawmakers earn 116 times that.

The World Bank, the IMF, the CIA and the University of Pennsylvania all put the GDP per capita of Nigeria at between $2,661 ranking 137^th in the world out of 180 countries, $2,720 ranking 143/187, $2,800 ranking 148/194 and $1,716 ranking 152/185 respectively.

By comparison Australia is in the top 10 thrice, Italy in the top 30 twice and then the top 35 and the United States of America 4 times in the top 10, it goes without saying that Nigeria has no business paying its legislators in what is purportedly a representative democracy these atrocious amounts of cash that bilk and milk the country without contributing anything to its economic growth.

The consequences of expensive democracies

Worse still, it creates a competition for political office where the rewards far outweigh the commensurate perspiration leading to many situations where power-grabs by every means possible warps every notion of free and fair elections, talk less of representative democracy – it is utterly bad for Nigeria apart from the fact that it is unsustainable.

Looking at the chart again, you also wonder why Sub-Saharan African nations that hog the bottom third of GDP per capita tables are the ones that take the lead by far in the discrepancies between elected and elector besides the fact that only Ghana has consistently rewarded its electorate with the will of its people, Kenya did not in the penultimate election which has the current leadership indicted for crimes against humanity and Nigeria is a travesty in everything but name.

Nigeria is awash with oil money in the wrong hands which is used in acquisitive, ostentatious, hedonistic and wanton display of power, wealth, influence and mischief, it exacerbates a pressure cooker of ethno-religious and regional tensions, none of which the leadership have had the wherewithal to grapple with or understand that the consequences as it holds together with threadbare allegiances of snouts in trough might well be dire for the 2015 election year.

Enough is just enough

In my humble opinion, this democracy is neither representative nor working if the people we choose to represent us are so far removed from the reality of the citizenry that they literally live in a parallel universe, there ought to be no reason for Nigeria, Kenya and Ghana to be democratic outliers compared to the economic activity within their regions in comparison to their people, it calls for reform and this must be urgent, radical, far-reaching and deeply examining of the culture of corruption and influence-peddling we have allowed to become the raison d'être of political life.

This is the one time when the chorus from the village to the city and from the homes to the marketplaces of the country should ring loud – Enough is just enough.

Other reading

Nigeria: Our politically immature systems

Nigeria: Percentage Allowance Legislators

Opinion: Some universal concepts from the SCOTUS sexuality opinions

Clarity of opinions

I have always felt that on matters of social justice when cases are brought to challenge a perceived infringement of rights, justices do take their time to give their opinions which might become case law if those opinions go unchallenged afterwards.

When it comes to the issue of the separation of religion and state, the justices in the United Kingdom have been lucid and comprehensive in the views they have expressed that one cannot but agree with them.

Just last week, the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) that many will say have a rather conservative leaning on many issues ruled on the matter of same-sex relationships and the recognition of such relationships, again, I see a universal application of their thinking joining case law when such issues arise elsewhere in the world – the arguments are well made.

Liberty for all

There are many SCOTUS opinions, opinions being the majority verdicts searchable at the Cornell University Law School Portal, many of which I cannot cover but going by the opinions of Justice Anthony Kennedy who apparently has been at the centre of gay rights for the past decade, there are gems to take away.

It is clear that in the 21^st Century, we are faced with issues that must compel us to promote liberty, ensure dignity, remove inequality and excoriate humiliation, these are the core elements of that govern every civil rights causes and it must stand paramount in quest for civilising our humanity daily.

I have a liberal to libertarian slant on these matters and I have liberally quoted from my sources at NPR and Cornell University Law School to support the views and understanding I have of the opinions.

We are not in a police state

The SCOTUS in a 6-3 decision in 2003 struck down the Texas “Homosexual Conduct” law that criminalised some sexual acts in Lawrence v. Texas, this was a case where two gay men engaged in consensual sex in a private home were arrested, charged and jailed – more background here – liberty and freedom formed the basis of the opinions.

“Liberty protects the person from unwarranted government intrusions into a dwelling or other private places. In our tradition the state is not omnipresent in the home. And there are other spheres of our lives and existence, outside the home, where the state should not be a dominant presence.”

Clear as this is, it suggests that the state should be limited in its access to dwelling places and private places except where it is warranted, it however should not be a dominant presence in our lives that it begins to operate like a police state – if a person is not a resident of a police state, then the state must constrain its surveillance into private affairs.

Autonomy or regulation

“Liberty presumes an autonomy of self that includes freedom of thought, belief, expression, and certain intimate conduct.”

This again builds on the foregoing except if the state intends to regulate thought, belief, expression, and certain intimate conduct – then the question arises as to how far the state will be allowed to regulate such for certain people until it arrogates the responsibility to regulate it for all.

This becomes pertinent when moralist laws are promulgated predicated on religion, culture, traditions and much else, the state must not extent its function to civil society to then encroach on the individual liberties of the people.

Mandating moral codes

Before, this view is extrapolated to support licentiousness, the SCOTUS goes on to develop this thinking.

“It must be acknowledged, of course, that the Court in Bowers was making the broader point that for centuries there have been powerful voices to condemn homosexual conduct as immoral. The condemnation has been shaped by religious beliefs, conceptions of right and acceptable behavior, and respect for the traditional family. For many persons these are not trivial concerns but profound and deep convictions accepted as ethical and moral principles to which they aspire and which thus determine the course of their lives.”

Here, the court acknowledges in 1986 that centuries old laws had deemed homosexual conduct as immoral and agreed that the concerns of opponents of homosexuality were not trivial.

However, in the following excerpt, the SCOTUS returned to the role of guaranteeing liberty.

“The issue is whether the majority may use the power of the state to enforce these views on the whole society through operation of the criminal law. Our obligation is to define the liberty of all, not to mandate our own moral code.”

Here, the court curtails the power of the state by saying it should not take what the majority views as immoral and legislate on that view to create criminal law. As with the court, the state should rise to the responsibility of guaranteeing liberty for all and not be manipulated to mandate moral codes.

I see this view as quite pervasive and universal in the separation of religion and the state except where the state is governed by a theocracy and all the citizens of that state follow the same beliefs, tenets and doctrines. Where the citizens are not of similar and equal beliefs, it behoves the state to err on the side of secularity guaranteeing freedoms and liberties rather than codifying moral views into laws.

Protection and dignity

In United States v. Windsor, which was brought to challenge the Defence of Marriage Act of 1996 where the surviving spouse of a legally married sex-same couple in another country, then recognised at the state level in the country of their residence was not given federal estate tax exemption at by the Inland Revenue Service.

There are broader issues particular to the United States but there are universal concepts to take away from the opinion offered by the SCOTUS.

“In authorizing same-sex unions and same-sex marriages, New York sought to give further protection and dignity to that bond. For same-sex couples who wished to be married, the State acted to give their lawful conduct a lawful status. This status is a far-reaching legal acknowledgment of the intimate relationship between two people, a relationship deemed by the State worthy of dignity in the community equal with all other marriages. It reflects both the community's considered perspective on the historical roots of the institution of marriage and its evolving understanding of the meaning of equality.”

The key words where are protection, dignity, lawful conduct, legal acknowledgement, intimate relationship and equality.

Whilst communities around the world differ, they are evolving and whatever historical roots and systems those communities might have, the institutions they hold dear are coming under more persuasion towards more equality and this has applied throughout history on matters of privilege, citizenship, gender, beliefs, disability, sexuality and much else.

Laws injuring protection

Society strives towards egalitarianism where the equality of opportunity is not defined by status but through ability, character, merit and basic rights.

“DOMA seeks to injure the very class New York seeks to protect. By doing so it violates basic due process and equal protection principles applicable to the Federal Government.”

Here, the SCOTUS opines that there should not be an overarching statute that seeks to injure a class that already receives protection from such injury.

It goes without saying that the quest to protect a minority should of essence eventually have the support of a higher power to ensure that minority receives protection within the domain of that higher power – a process of time but where that protection is refused there is just cause to challenge that view as a matter of fairness, rights and justice.

“This is strong evidence of a law having the purpose and effect of disapproval of that class. The avowed purpose and practical effect of the law here in question are to impose a disadvantage, a separate status, and so a stigma upon all who enter into same-sex marriages made lawful by the unquestioned authority of the States.”

Here, the SCOTUS questioned an overarching law promulgated to disapprove, discriminate and impose a disadvantage on a class, thereby stigmatising those who belong to a class already given protection.

Eliminating inequality

“When New York adopted a law to permit same-sex marriage, it sought to eliminate inequality; but DOMA frustrates that objective through a system-wide enactment with no identified connection to any particular area of federal law. DOMA writes inequality into the entire United States Code.”

The SCOTUS is clear in this by saying a federal law is writing inequality into the constitution, having same before that, “Our obligation is to define the liberty of all, not to mandate our own moral code.”

“The law in question makes it even more difficult for the children to understand the integrity and closeness of their own family and its concord with other families in their community and in their daily lives.”

In general, the law does not just affect the principals, it affects the innocent offspring of that intimate relationship which is by no means illegitimate, but legal, valid and recognised as the community has evolved in its understanding of such relationships.

Unnecessary burdens

“Under DOMA, same-sex married couples have their lives burdened, by reason of government decree, in visible and public ways. By its great reach, DOMA touches many aspects of married and family life, from the mundane to the profound.”

Not only do they have their lives burdened but unnecessarily burdened by reason of government decree – this burden is what the SCOTUS sought to remove by declaring DOMA unconstitutional.

Whilst we might generally agree that marriage constitutes the union of a man and a woman, the broader and wider definition of marriage today as society has evolved now is the union of partners regardless of the pairing of genders – it is the recognition of an intimate relationship of people who have committed to have that relationship recognised and with it will come all the accoutrements and benefits of having had that loving, intimate and committed relationship in life and in death.

In Africa and beyond

In Africa where the advent of anti-homosexual fervour and the promulgation of homophobic laws is gaining traction, the communities have yet to reach that level of guaranteeing liberties in such a way that their lawmakers do not preoccupy themselves with mandating moral codes and criminalising views the majority consider immoral conduct, but the opinions stated above will almost eventually lay the basis of arguing the human rights issues of minorities beyond just the matter of sexuality.

I am of the view that when the core purpose of protecting the liberty of all is the guiding principle of the courts above all else, in the hands of good human rights lawyers, no law will remain in our statute books that seeks to discriminate, denigrate, disapprove or stigmatise an African because they believe differently, act differently, or espouse views and lifestyles that are different and thereby all Africans will have equal access to justice, fairness and be protected from menace, sanction or injury to live in peace regardless of who they are.

Editorial: Now America cannot kill its prisoners

Passion over compassion

It goes without saying that certain crimes committed in the United States can create the greatest horror, repugnance and revulsion calling for the stiffest sanctions available.

In the case of murders, heinous sexual offences and unspeakable crimes that trammel every feeling for compassion and resist every expression of humanity, it is understandable that state-sanctioned vengeance culminating in the death penalty might seem a fair administration of justice answering for the misdemeanours.

For some in the midst of interminable grief expressed in anger and a passion to see justice done by the end of the life of culprit, they believe they have reached something called closure but the real meaning of this state of being whilst apparently necessary for some and not to be contemned does not enhance our civilisation.

Perfecting the art of murder

Having progressed through the ages from mediaeval implements of grievous torture, through being hung, drawn and quartered, sword beheadings, hanging, the guillotine and then further in America when the science of judicial killing developed in the art of murder with the electric chair and lethal injections, the tide in turning.

In Europe, we have the ultimate punishment of life imprisonment and are stridently against the death penalty that certain of our laws will prevent us sending aliens back to countries where they risk being killed by the judicial process of the state.

Off-shoring death

In January, Hospira Inc. a US-based company decided to stop producing thiopental sodium, an anaesthetic which is as part of the cocktail of drugs used in the administration of the death penalty.

There are difficulties created by ceasing the manufacture of this drug in the United States because it is used as a first-line anaesthetic but its dual-use in the death penalty protocol has meant that European manufacturers have refused to supply this drug to the 34 states that purpose to use the drug for implementing the death penalty.

This development means that either new drugs approved through lengthy judicial processes need to be approved to continue carrying out this mediaeval practice or the dearth of drugs might just force the system to abort the quest for the death penalty.

Expertise in weaponology for mass murder

It is also interesting that the United States being the biggest purveyors of arms and weapons of mass destruction has found itself technically unable to judicially kill its citizens because no local company now produces this essential killing drug.

I am glad that Europeans have refused to help continue this inhumane practice and other companies that might have filled in the gap created by the inactivity of Hospira Inc. are held suspect because the drug is sourced from India.

A cog in the circle of death

For all the modernity, emancipation, development and innovation that America represents, they still exhibit this unhealthy primordial and primeval thirst for blood, death and vengeance that harks back to the Old Testament or jihadist times even if death is apparently humanely administered it is no less savage in its result.

Either way, it is time for Americans to ascribe to greater expressions of humanity and without dictating what that it, it surely does not include the espousing, support and continuance of the death penalty.

Acknowledgements

News of the drug being pulled appeared on various news outlets including the Wall Street Journal, as Hospira Inc. could not produce the drug in its Italian factory it pulled out of its manufacture altogether. A specific request to Germany for the drug has been rejected and other European companies are seeking ways to avoid having their products co-opted to the death penalty protocol.

Editorial: Fifteenth of May 2011

Fences and foxes

If you intend to save your chickens from foxes you will build good strong fences and if you tended your chickens well by also ensuring where they have free range to roam was not weedy, bushy or overgrown, it is unlikely when you go picking the eggs you’ll end up with a snake bite.

One is at pains to say that if Pakistan were cast as a farmer, her chickens would have been safe or she would not have come to harm during the morning egg-run.

This is an apt analogical characterisation of the supposed sovereignty of Pakistan and their embarrassment at having the United States of America breach their borders in pursuit of Osama bin Laden that make their protestations and dishonesty hypocrisy at best and an exercise of bare-faced denial of realities and truths they are still failing to address. Things are just not all that right with others than the government besides the US having writ large around Pakistan.

Might of the fox

There is no doubt that in an ideal world the United States should not have entered Pakistani territory to take out Osama bin Laden but it is not the duty of the fox to mend fences or the nature of the snake to resist opportunistic assess to eggs – that is just the way of the world and nature, might almost always determines right rather than the cosy liberal notion of knowing the boundaries of right and wrong.

Then again we profess the upholding of human rights as the basis of our values and as much as can be done is done to project that across the world.

In an ideal setting Osama bin Laden would have best been captured and made to follow the due process of law and justice – he however never presented the means by which anyone could objectively suggest that when cornered he could be captured without his assailants meeting a gruesome end.

In the heat of the raid

He might not have been armed but he might have been wearing a suicide vest as his type of ideology has persuaded others to just as we were informed that he had 500 Euros sewn into his clothes.

The house might well have been booby-trapped needing a trigger which could proximity-based or otherwise, but there is some confidence that allowed him to maintain such a conspicuous house with just the basic security of high walls and strong gates.

In the end, the easiest way to ensure no one else came to serious harm was to shoot him in the head before he thought up something as diabolical as other daring terrorist acts that are attributed to him and his acolytes.

The despatch

For the havoc this particular person had wreaked on the world, the innocent, his fellow Muslims, life, property, economies, security and much more; Osama bin Laden had in terms excluded himself from any reasonable quest that should have sought to protect of his rights and was hardly deserving of the dignities, respect or honour that people would like to arrogate to him.

Osama bin Laden was a singularly special case and should never be conflated with other issues of policy, politics, values, justice or sovereignty; he had to be summarily dealt with on apprehension and promptly disposed of on expiry.

Much as one could be given the opportunity to dance on his grave, it is one offer that should be declined; I cannot swim.

Obama sees the end of Osama

Osama in my slumber

Just before I fell asleep my Twitter time-line revealed Barack Obama was about to make an unusual Sunday statement and so my dreams were invaded by content broadcast by Al Jazeera concerning Osama bin Laden.

I eventually stirred up and the alertness that came was hit with the comprehension of my dreams, Osama bin Laden is dead.

A very evil man

It is a welcome development but it needs to be taken in context. This man was a very evil man whose Midas touch was death and destruction under the guise of an extreme form of religion that took its strains from Islam.

He found brotherhood amongst fellow religionists, usually sexually ascetic and repressed who were cajoled into giving up their lives for a paradise of debauched harems of virgins. With these bedazzled foot-soldiers he waged Jihad with impunity and unspeakable atrocity.

East Africa, Yemen, New York, Washington and spin-offs in Bali, Madrid and London, it was carnage like Armageddon and the man behind it every few months released videos to taunt and tease that he was still around – Catch me if you can.

The cost in life and property cannot be quantified in Afghanistan and Iraq, in some circles he could have been the precursor to the Anti-Christ, if a mere mortal can make destruction a global business you can only wonder about those who are destined to wreak biblical proportions of havoc untrammelled.

Justice is not served, revenge is

Amazingly, whilst he launched 9/11 from Afghanistan and was almost smoked out in Tora Bora he was found in a monumental edifice just North-East of the capital of Pakistan a classic case of hiding in plain sight.

I am not convinced justice is served, his actions changed our world that the rights, freedoms and liberties that many gave their lives for in the wars of the 20^th Century have systematically been rolled back in the blanket interests of safety and security, the world will never be the same again.

However, revenge has been taken, vengeance exacted and it is important that our celebration of his death especially amongst democratic nations should see this as the removal of a leader, a figurehead and an international nuisance, it would have been nigh on impossible to take him alive to face our courts and answer for the crimes he committed – we need to maintain that view of justice being served in that kind of structure.

Managing the fallout

An embarrassed Pakistan should have something to say about the unwanted guest that took residence in their country, as for the body that is in the custody of the United States in Afghanistan, he was shot in the head, he deserves no burial rites derived from the religion he professed to follow but besmirched with his actions and philosophy – there is a whole lot of rebuilding of systems, creeds, beliefs and reputations to be done.

He should never become a martyr and those who seek inspiration from his causes should begin to diminish and let our hope and future begin to take shape into a world that is safe, free, secure and less threatened by terror not forgetting the conflicts that allow for these extreme activities to take hold.

Palestine needs resolution, repressive regimes in the Arab world need to come to an end, some accommodation needs to be found for Iran, the Muslims should not find persuasion in the view that they are under siege.

The news today and the paralysis of analysis will for the moment be; Obama sees the end of Osama.

The US: The Maltreatment of Bradley Manning

The truth was how he stated it

I start this blog with a direct quote from a source because it just lays the ground for what I am about to write, this quote came from the Foreign Policy website and it says.

State Department Assistant Secretary for Public Affairs P.J. Crowley resigned on Sunday afternoon, only two days after he was reported to have called the treatment of alleged WikiLeaks source Private Bradley Manning “ridiculous and counterproductive and stupid.” [Quoted source [1]]

However, P.J. Crowley’s concern, possibly humanity and dare I say his compassion for another human-being who he believed was being persecuted and maltreated has cost him his job. The position he held definitely must have made him privy to the conditions that Bradley Manning was being kept under and he probably had quietly tried to get something done about it before he made public record of what we along suspected was happening to the man.

The rebutter

Now, a Colonel David Lapan who has the impossibly convoluted non-substantive title of Pentagon Deputy Acting Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Media Operations which is very much like two Deputies assisting an act has offered us the set prop or probability that Manning is not being humiliated [2].

Just in case we fail to understand what Colonel Lapan had to say, we are given short comprehensible paragraphs with clear indications of what conditions Private Manning or PFC Manning is being kept under.

It is pertinent that I reproduce here exactly what was published and I will intersperse each of those paragraphs with my comments placed in {}, just to ensure I am not adrift of the message being communicated.

A brig is a prison

Quantico is a military brig, not a prison, and it is not a maximum security facility. http://www.quantico.usmc.mil/activities/display.aspx?PID=588&Section=SECBN

{The link attached is quite enlightening, The Brig is a place of confinement that can house 120 prisoners spanning all custody classes from minimum to maximum security requirements – I suppose that means the Brig is a prison that can be used as a maximum security facility.

The layman’s definition of brig [3] when it is not a two-masted ship is jail or prison.}

Manning, however, is considered a maximum custody detainee. He is not "under isolation 23 hours a day." Here are the facts of his pre-trial confinement:

{So, if Manning is a maximum custody detainee, I suppose it implies he would a candidate for the maximum security facility and it is unlikely that he would be placed in a minimal custody setting if he had the designation as stated and corroborated by the spokesperson of the authorities.}

Semantics of deception

PFC Manning is not in solitary confinement. He has a single-occupancy cell, like all of the other detainees.

{It makes me wonder when solitary and single-occupancy meant different things and surely a cell is a place of confinement. The Brig webpage says “Confinement sharply limits the confinee's privileges, freedom of action, and opportunities for personal satisfaction. Therefore the member is confined as punishment and not for punishment.”}

PFC Manning is not in isolation.

{If I may refer again to The Brig webpage, “Confinement is punishment because it denies members their liberty and separates them from family, friends and most normal activities.” Now, how that means he is not in isolation escapes me. }

PFC Manning is a maximum custody detainee in a prevention of injury status.

{After the earlier consideration, we can now agree that he is a maximum custody detainee and once we have signed that off we can also see that being in a single-occupancy cell, the prevention of injury status can only pertain to the impression that he might harm himself.}

PFC Manning is not currently on suicide watch.

{It makes one wonder if there is no contradiction here, it does not need extrapolation that the prevention of injury status implies he might well be suicidal – the checks being made on him might not be too frequent but regular enough to ensure that he has come to no harm, part of which would involve disturbing his peace to arouse him to confirm he is still with us.}

To be thankful for

PFC Manning is being held in the same quarters section with other pre-trial detainees.

{How that changes his status from being in a single-occupancy cell where he cannot interact escapes me, but if he is a pre-trial detainee, why is he being punished already, as The Brig website infers.}

PFC Manning is allowed to watch television and read newspapers.

{We must be thankful for creature comforts.}

PFC Manning is allowed one-hour per day to exercise.

{The corollary of which infers he is kept confined for 23-hours, we are not told if he is allowed to see the sun, run around, get a sense of being human in that setting.}

PFC Manning is provided well-balanced, nutritious meals three times a day.

{Welcome to Brig Gourmet, I suppose it comes with 3 Michelin stars too.}

His amazing privileges

PFC Manning receives visitors and mail and can write letters.

{According to his lawyer [4], he did receive birthday greetings from his family in December but they could only visit him in the weekends, he has made requests for books and apparently received such.}

PFC Manning routinely meets with doctors and his attorney.

{According to The Brig website, they require 48-hours notice to coordinate these visitations.}

PFC Manning is allowed telephone calls.

PFC Manning is being treated just like every other detainee in the brig.

{Apart from the fact that The Brig span “all custody classes from minimum to maximum security requirements” and he is on the extreme end of this scale where “It means loss of status and disapproval of the individual offender by the military society.”

He was observed naked

Also, there is no 'daily disrobing and various other humiliations.' In recent days, as the result of concerns for PFC Manning's personal safety, his undergarments were taken from him during sleeping hours. PFC Manning at all times had a bed and a blanket to cover himself. He was not made to stand naked for morning count but, but on one day, he chose to do so. There were no female personnel present at the time. PFC Manning has since been issued a garment to sleep in at night. He is clothed in a standard jumpsuit during the day.

{Now, it would mean despite the disapproval of the individual officer by the military society and the punishment by confinement, the loss of status as a prisoner he suffers no humiliations. I however read that his undergarments were taken from him and it would appear all his apparel as contained in the Confinee Gear List [5 - PDF file] had been impounded that he did have to appear naked.

We have read that that PFC Manning had sexual identity issues [6] such that the presence of male personnel when he was inspected as nude would have just been as disconcerting as having female personnel present.

Either by commission or omission that event can be duly presented as a humiliation of PFC Manning and the reading shows that some corrective action was taken to give him a garment to sleep in at night.}

For months we have been regaled with tales of the harsh treatment of Bradley Manning, a simple Google search would provide a list of appalling acts of cruelty many of which I have read that makes my stomach churn.

Insulting our intelligence

One can only wonder what Colonel Lapan’s statement was to achieve apart from confirm what P.J. Crowley suggested and then attempt to obfuscate the by sleight and insult our intelligence with the premise that we cannot read and comprehend the very simple statements and bullet-points proffered.

Never has anyone been so brazen as to with impunity attempt to suborn due process to justify reprehensible activities in a country that purports to support and advocate the protection of human rights and offer the presumption of innocence until declared guilty.

Disgusted and appalled does not begin to describe that outrageous acts of inhumanity meted out to Bradley Manning and all those involved in this activity will never find exculpation in these despicably heinous acts ot travesty.

Sources

[1] Crowley resigns over Manning remarks | The Cable

[2] Pentagon: Manning not being humiliated | The Cable

[3] brig - definition of brig by the Free Online Dictionary, Thesaurus and Encyclopedia

[4] Bradley Manning's Life Behind Bars - Yahoo! News

[5] Confinee Gear List PDF file

[6] Was Wikileaker Bradley Manning Betrayed By His Queer Identity?

Nigeria: Naijaleaks and the importance of Nigeria

Searching the leaks

With the headlines items gone and the choice bits taken, let us now pick up the remnants of the Nigerian WikiLeaks cables which are now termed NaijaLeaks and hear the background chatter behind the deafening noise.

With the WikiLeaks search tool which came to me through some indirect reference in my Twitter feed it was only right to search for what else contained Nigeria but was not of breaking news media pervasiveness but still a matter of conversation.

First of all you can find the WikiLeaks search facility at Leak Search and I thank @nubiancheetah for reTweeting @rafiq with the indirect link.

Nigeria is the most important in Africa

Looking at what Nigeria represents, US Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Johnnie Carson was in Nigeria with a message and on a fact-finding mission which included meeting with International Oil Companies (IOCs).

In attendance were the now legendary Ann Pickard of Shell, representatives from Chevron, Exxon Mobil, Schlumberger, Hercules, the American Business council and consulate staff, from what I can see of the names highlighted in the cable, there were at least two Nigerians in that meeting too.

He had this to say, Nigeria is the most important country in Africa for the United States due to: the size of its population; presence of hydro-carbons; peace keeping role in ECOWAS, its seat on the United Nations Security Council; along with the strength and size of its financial markets. Nigeria has enormous potential and is the seventh largest Muslim country in the world with an Islamic population that will eclipse Egypt by 2015. Having no United States presence in Northern Nigeria is akin to having no presence in Egypt and is why the United States is considering opening a Consulate in Kano.

Despite what we know of Nigeria, these seem to be rather profound statements about Nigeria which places it in prominence above both Egypt and South Africa in terms of importance to the United States in Africa.

The failings and the impasse in leadership notwithstanding, one can say those terms of reference have also been mentioned in order of importance, population, oil, regional clout, UN presence, markets and religion, especially the Islamic influence.

The failure of our democratic systems

What is alarming is the suggestion that only 10% of Nigerians saw a ballot ticket in 2007, that is damning as it is worrisome and I hope that the elections in 2011 do aim to have a healthy majority exercise their right to vote and have their votes counted declaring the wishes of the people.

The managers of the election should aim for 70% or better and not just a slight improvement on the performance of 2007, but with the theft of registration machines from the international airport last week, one worries about how much success can be expected.

The assertion that Lagos is better than Cape Town and the most important in the Nigerian federal system is interesting, it is the commercial capital of Nigeria with the administrative capital in Abuja and though it is less salubrious compared to Cape Town, it is where things are happening and changing.

Three state governors in the south had a favourable mention for their work, development and governance and they were those of Akwa Ibom - Godswill Akpabio, Rivers - Chibulke Amaechi and Edo - Adams Oshiomhole, it is interesting that despite the seeming infrastructural improvements in Lagos State the governor does not get a mention.

Charting the course to the right future

Fundamentally, the view of the IOCs is that the Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB) is more about taking control and extracting more value for Nigeria’s resources than providing solutions in terms of security, safety and development of the resources.

It appears the PIB is in three versions with no idea of what would eventually be adopted and more damning is the idea that Nigeria can manage its resources with spreadsheets and this apparently inadequate bill. – See cable for more views on the PIB.

Looking to the future the concern is the Nigeria has the possibility of developing into a Pakistan, the parallels are developing are of serious concern and though we are not a nuclear power, oil and religion are just as explosive and capable of creating an ungovernable entity.

To reach the standard of living of Indonesia by 2020, Nigeria needs to grow at 14% a year but that is predicated on credible democratic process, the development of independent and viable institutions that adhere to the rule of law and in my view an sustainable legislature which at the moment consumes 25% of the federal overhead. With Nigeria growing at only 5% and not taking account of the growth of Indonesia, there is much capacity and potential for improvement but the opportunities are yet to be tackled with the necessary fervour.

China for China makes US rethink Nigeria

As for other foreign influences in Nigeria, this is the view they have of China and the purveyors of Chinese investment in Africa better take note of the situation - The United States does not consider China a military, security or intelligence threat. China is a very aggressive and pernicious economic competitor with no morals. China is not in Africa for altruistic reasons. China is in Africa for China primarily. A secondary reason for China’s presence is to secure votes in the United Nations from African countries.

However, China’s influence is making the United States rethink its strategy in Africa and it is working all ends to ensure that it remains significant in the Nigeria polity by locating a presence in all parts of Nigeria, in the words of the Assistant Secretary - No presence means no access, which leads to no influence. Without influence you have nothing.

Whilst Secretary Carson did not get to sign off this cable, the conclusions are clear, Nigeria in Africa, its hydro-carbons, its potential and the religious element needs that the United States be fully engaged in Nigeria by all means possible and it comes above South Africa, Egypt, Indonesia and Pakistan in terms of if its important to the interests of the United States.

Source

Viewing cable 10LAGOS75, Assistant Secretary Carson meets oil companies in Lagos

The cable – with interesting portions highlighted.

Tuesday, 23 February 2010, 08:20

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 LAGOS 000075

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF/FO, AF/W, AF/RSA, AND INR/AA

AMEMBASSY YAOUNDE PASS TO AMEMBASSY MALABO

EO 12958 DECL: 2020/02/23

TAGS EPET, ENRG, ECON, PGOV, PREL, NI

SUBJECT: ASSISTANT SECRETARY CARSON MEETS OIL COMPANIES IN LAGOS

CLASSIFIED BY: Donna M. Blair, CG, State, ConGen Lagos; REASON: 1.4(B), (D)

SUMMARY

¶1. (C) Assistant Secretary (A/S) Carson met with members of the International Oil Companies (IOCs) on February 7. The A/S stressed the fact that Nigeria is the most important country in Africa for the United States. The IOC members noted that the A/S spoke mainly of issues in Northern Nigeria and did not dwell on Southern issues.

The Petroleum Industry Bill is discouraging future investment mostly in deep-water fields where most of the remaining oil in Nigeria lies. If Nigeria raised the price of gas to two-thirds of the world price, the IOC’s would be at each others throats trying to cut the price by a penny or two. Nigeria has the possibility of becoming the next Pakistan within 25 years. A/S Carson allayed the IOCs concerns of the United States’ relationship with China. END SUMMARY.

¶2. (C) Assistant Secretary Carson met with members of the international oil community in Lagos on February 7. In attendance were the following: Shell Senior Vice President’s Ann Pickard and Ian Craig; Shell Vice President Peter Robinson; Chevron Managing Director Andrew Fawthrop; Chevron Public Affairs Manager Femi Odumabo; Exxon Mobil Managing Director Mark Ward; Hercules Manager Coleman McDonough; Schlumberger Manager Supply Chain Service Demi Adenusi; American Business Council (ABC) President Dick Kramer; Special Assistant to the Assistant Secretary; Economic Officer; Maritime Affairs Officer; Marine AttachC) and, Consul General Lagos.

NIGERIA: MOST IMPORTANT COUNTRY IN AFRICA

¶3. (C) Fawthrop asked the A/S whether he was in Nigeria to deliver a message or was it more of a fact-finding trip? A/S Carson stated that he was in Nigeria for both reasons in that he wanted to listen and engage with Nigeria. Nigeria is the most important country in Africa for the United States due to: the size of its population; presence of hydro-carbons; peace keeping role in ECOWAS, especially in Sierra Leone and Liberia; its seat on the United Nations Security Council; along with the strength and size of its financial markets the A/S continued.

Nigeria has enormous potential and is the seventh largest Muslim country in the world with an Islamic population that will eclipse Egypt by 2015 according to A/S Carson. Having no United States presence in Northern Nigeria is akin to having no presence in Egypt and is why the United States is considering opening a Consulate in Kano.

¶4. (C) The United States is concerned about the power vacuum in Nigeria and the state of health of President Yar A’dua, per A/S Carson. The president is “very, very, very, very ill” and Nigerians are under illusions regarding the state of their president. “Nigeria cannot afford to implode or run aground.”

30 years of military government was not good. The United States expects a stable, legal, democratic, constitutionally-based government with no “military involvement, full stop” A/S Carson stated. It is important for the GON to do a better job this time around in regards to elections. Only ten percent of Nigerians saw a ballot ticket in the 2007 elections. If Nigeria brings credibility to its democratic processes, its economic processes will improve.

UNITED STATES PRESENCE IN SOUTHERN NIGERIA NEEDS ATTENTION

¶5. (C) Some places are more important than others within the Federal system of Nigeria and Lagos is one of the more important places, according to A/S Carson. Consulate General Lagos is bigger and more important than Embassies Benin and Togo together. Lagos is significantly more important than Cape Town even though the latter is 100 times better in terms of livability. The United States must be in Lagos in a significant way, A/S Carson declared.

¶6. (C) The statements of the A/S sounded wonderful from a Hausa viewpoint, but nothing was mentioned about Southern and Eastern Nigeria, Fawthrop pointed out. The A/S agreed that Fawthrop was correct. The United States is underrepresented diplomatically, economically, commercially, militarily and from a security standpoint.

When the A/S served in Nigeria from 1969-1971, the United States had the Embassy in Lagos with Consulates in Ibadan, Kaduna, and briefly in Port Harcourt, before the Civil war, and also a USIS post in Kano. With the Nigerian population at 50 million the United States was better and more broadly represented in a Nigeria that produced almost no oil.

With an Embassy in Abuja and a Consulate in Lagos, the United States has experienced a “huge loss” in Nigeria today, per A/S Carson. The United States must get back into Enugu and Port Harcourt. “No presence means no access, which leads to no influence. Without influence you have nothing.”

¶7. (C) Akwa Ibom governor Godswill Akpabio was singled out as an impressive governor by Mark Ward. Akpabio has built up infrastructure and industrial development. He is “one to watch” per Ward. Other Southern governors that were highlighted included were Rivers State governor Chibulke Amaechi and Edo State governor Oshiomhole. Fawthrop suggested that USAID has a lot to offer in the South in that if USAID makes a mistake it is OK.

If a private company engages in a similar project and makes a mistake you have a FCPA investigation. The Consul General (CG) added that it might be possible to team up with security assets of the IOCs to arrange diplomatic trips to the Niger Delta. This arrangement would not happen “100 percent of the time,” but more often than not, per the CG.

STATUS OF THE PETROLEUM INDUSTRY BILL

¶8. (C) The PIB is more about taking control and not a real solution, per Mark Ward. XXXXXXXXXXXX There are currently three versions between the Senate, House, and Interagency committee and it is unclear when and what will materialize, according to Ward. Fawthrop added that the PIB amounts to resource nationalization and stated that it costs more than 40 percent to develop the oil as opposed to leaving it in the ground. The current fiscals of the PIB estimate that is costs 25 percent to develop the oil, thereby creating a disincentive.

If the oil stays in the ground then billions of development money will go away and the resulting slowdown will be a massive problem. The IOCs received a lecture from a team made up of various GON agencies (the interagency team) in Abuja In a recent meeting in an example of the current level of communication per Fawthrop. The whole group then went to the office of the Vice President where the interagency team stated that there was very good communication between them and the IOCs.

¶9. (C) The large fields, elephants, have all been developed in Nigeria per Fawthrop. What remains are fields one-quarter to one-third the size. The same costs are involved in producing the oil but the revenue will be less because there is less oil.

The IOCs need more incentive, not less, in order to develop these fields profitably. What the PIB accomplishes is a disincentive. The downstream sector is very simple in Nigeria in that the refined gas is moved from one tanker to another, to a smaller tanker and then sold. The refining sector, exploration and production sectors are very complex. It is unrealistic for the PIB to try to change all of these areas in one tome of legislation, asserted Fawthrop.

¶10. (C) The gas side of the PIB tries to legislate the delivery of gas rather than incentivize it. “The donkey is tired and beaten. It will not go no matter what you tell it” stated Fawthrop. If the gas price went to two thirds of the world price the IOCs would “cut each others throat” to cut the price by one or two cents.

The rest of the IOC members nodded in agreement to this statement by Fawthrop. European gas competition has gas developed on a cost plus basis adding about eight percent to the cost. The model should be based on rate of return and not forced upon operators by legislative decree.

¶11. (C) Whenever gas doubles the cost of electricity goes up by one quarter. Stable electricity will allow industry to flourish in Nigeria but this will not happen 15 months before the elections. Amateur technocrats run the oil and gas sector according to Shell’s Peter Robinson.

They believe that they can control the industry via spreadsheets and pushing through the PIB. There are many emotional issues in the PIB with Nigerian politicians believing that they make no money on deep-water projects. Potential banker and businessmen partners do not understand the industry. The GON has made USD 2.5 billion with no investment in the past two years according to Robinson.

¶12. (C) A large problem will be the ten percent of equity that is to go to the communities argued Fawthrop. Equity going into the communities will make them explode. The recipients of the monies will be highly disappointed when they see the amount they will receive, a much larger sum will be expected. Kramer referred to the community equity as the “lawyer relief act” and wondered how one defines an actual community.

¶13. (C) Peter Robinson stated after the meeting that Pedro Van Meurs, the oil consultant hired by the GON to help negotiate with the IOCs, is considering leaving. Van Meurs has been trying to show the GON officials that their fiscal math does not work with the PIB.

Van Meurs does not agree with the IOC position completely but sees areas for improvement. One example given to Lagos Econoff by Exxon Mobil Project Manager Anh Tran concerned the levels of cost involved with deep-water projects. Exxon, and other IOCs, maintain that their capital costs are at least 40 percent of deep-water projects while the GON allows for 25 percent capital costs under the PIB. Van Meurs agreed that 25 percent was not adequate.

WHERE DOES NIGERIA GO FROM HERE?

¶14. (C) It is possible that Nigeria could be a future Pakistan according to A/S Carson. In 25 years, there could be impoverished masses, a wealthy elite and radicalism in the North. The question is whether the oil wells will be dry as well and could Nigeria be on “sustainable and irreversible glide path to a new economic base” per the A/S.

When you look at the 2020/20 plan by the GON you see that Nigeria needs to grow by 14 percent a year to be at the current level of Indonesia Fawthrop asserted. That is using today’s figures, which does not take into account Indonesia’s growth Kramer added. Nigeria is growing at five percent now and would need 20 percent growth per annum in energy and USD 22 billion investment in power plants Fawthrop stated.

What would happen if Nigeria fell just short of their goals, would there be an alternative plan in place Fawthrop wondered? He cited the example of the 2009 6,000 Megawatt goal. It was apparent early on that the goal was not feasible and an alternative plan could have been devised. The GON insisted that they would reach their goal and did not develop alternatives. The same would hold true for 2020/20 Fawthrop assumed.

¶15. (C) The A/S offered that a forum could be organized in Nigeria with World Bank President Robert Zoellick speaking to a wide audience. Under Secretary for Economic, Energy, and Agricultural Affairs Bob Hormats would be invited as well to lend his knowledge of Africa. The forum would be shaped with the broader picture in mind, not just oil. This would not be sponsored by the IOCs. Members of the business community and individuals that were committed to making oil meaningful to Nigeria’s future would be asked to participate.

Talk would center on “over the horizon” issues, where Nigeria has gone right and where it has gone wrong. Two or three fora would be defined with key people to spark debate. Religious tensions, North-South issues, the lack of capacity in the GON, narco-trafficking, the growing irrelevance of Nigeria, as Princeton Lyman has suggested, could be potential subjects. Nigeria is at a critical financial and political threshold and the entire nation could possibly tip backwards permanently, per A/S Carson.

CHINESE - AMERICAN RELATIONS IN AFRICA

¶16. (C) What is the status of America’s influence in Africa and how does it compare to China, Fawthrop queried? The influence of the United States has increased in Africa, the A/S countered. The United States’ reputation is stable and its popularity is the highest in Africa compared to anywhere else in the world. Obama has helped to increase that influence. “We must manage the expectations of the Obama administration” offered the A/S.

The United States does not consider China a military, security or intelligence threat. China is a very aggressive and pernicious economic competitor with no morals. China is not in Africa for altruistic reasons. China is in Africa for China primarily. A secondary reason for China’s presence is to secure votes in the United Nations from African countries. A third reason is to prove that Taiwan is not an issue.

There are trip wires for the United States when it comes to China. Is China developing a blue water navy? Have they signed military base agreements? Are they training armies? Have they developed intelligence operations? Once these areas start developing then the United States will start worrying. The United States will continue to push democracy and capitalism while Chinese authoritarian capitalism is politically challenging. The Chinese are dealing with the Mugabe’s and Bashir’s of the world, which is a contrarian political model, A/S Carson stated.

COMMENT

¶17. (C) A/S Carson effectively provided the IOCs with a rationale for the United States’ interest in Nigeria and its commitment to the country. This commitment seems more substantial than the IOCs given the prospect of the PIB and the current state of play in Nigeria.

Providing the IOCs with statements of support through continuing if not increasing the USG presence in Nigeria will be important in determining the increasing, decreasing or non-existent role of the IOCs in the future in Nigeria. As the A/S stated, if we can have a substantial presence in Pakistan, why not Nigeria?

END COMMENT.

¶18. (U) A/S Carson did not have an opportunity to clear this cable before departing post. BLAIR

Boats, Threats & Videotape

A voice out of somewhere

“I am coming to you”, Could this be a father saying to his daughter who is distressed at school as a voice of assurance or is it a voice carried in the un-calm winds of the Persian Gulf in the Strait of Hormuz, threatening the existence of a coalition vessel convoy?

No one can say, just as the United States military command in the Gulf cannot now confirm that the video of seemingly or allegedly Iranian speedboats in aggressive posturing to their fleet is the source of that cool but eerily sinister voice.

We have seen boats, threats and videotape – you can make what you want out of both.

Far away war a day

The United States, very far away from home causing enough trouble in the Middle East was in international waters close to the territorial extent of Iran – this was no doubt a recipe for close encounters with their enemy.

The US then released a video of seemingly reckless speedboat riders playing chicken with a belligerent world power – they were at the point of being blown to smithereens when a voice was recorded with this chilling threat.

Iran then released their own video and the storyline takes a completely different course – a calm and collected officer asking about the coalition vessel, definitely not the voice we heard of the US video threat.

The curse of propaganda

If anything, it shows why we need multiple perspectives of any story, because each side had a propaganda element to portray and we are at risk of being persuading of what might be entirely false.

Had Iran not released a video view of their perspective of the incident the US reported, we would have satisfied ourselves with the usual staple of Iran being a lawless, ill-disciplined, faction-ridden theocracy that needs to be blown up to instigate regime change.

The Iranian version of events, though edited for consumption just as the US version was, gives us another pause for thought that Iran might not as horrible as we get told they are – it also shows that we would try to get away with anything, if other parties are not smart enough to take a record of their engagements with the West.

The UFO threat

I find this whole thing utterly reprehensible, I would hate to think that people are manufacturing videos to reflect a situation that does not represent the truth – between the US notion of provocative and Iran notion of routine, there must be something that is closer to the truth.

As the US backtracks about the coincidence of the voice with the appearance of these speedboats which one could almost say are probably Unidentified Floating Objects (UFO) – mirages of the sea – recorded from the fatigued lenses of a battle-weary cameraman and edited by excitable agents for more blood and gore of war.

As this story unravels, I do not think the entire truth would be revealed – however, for the sake of truth, fairness and justice, it is incumbent of all these aspiring Hollywood film-makers to release the entirety of their recordings of the event.

The news wires and channels should also keep out the analysts – at least, give us viewers the opportunity to decide for ourselves who is closer to the truth of the event.

A new premise for war

Beyond this is the opportunity for the US to contend that they have been provoked into attacking Iran having lost the impetus from the recent report that states that Iran has suspended any nuclear weapons development programme for years.

With an admiral suggesting that Iran risks a Gulf conflict, one fears that some activity very similar to the Iraq Dossier on the presence of Weapons of Mass Destruction on which the war in Iraq was based but found to be groundless is being orchestrated to justify an unjustifiable attack on Iran – someone is fanning the embers of discord and one wonders who.

More so, having failed to execute the war in Iraq with finesse, or handle the issues in Afghanistan with a conclusion in sight; it is contemptible that a new set of planners are probably trying to see if another war in Iran can be a lessons-learnt success to redeem the supremacy and credibility of the United States.

Perish the thought, but let it pass your mind for a second!

Both pieces of footage