Friday, 14 May 2010

Nigeria: Jonathan is the surprise for 2011


All done everywhere but here
It is a common saying that a week a long time in politics, strangely, we have had elections called in the Netherlands since February, during that time the UK has called elections, voted, cobbled together a coalition and gotten on with the business of government.
In Nigeria, our unseen President departed to the great beyond and the Acting President became substantive President during which time he has chosen a new cabinet, relieved the electoral commission chairman of his position before his tenure ended and has tapped an unknown governor as his deputy.
Meanwhile, the Dutch campaign continues without a squeak to have the vote in June – my other two countries of affiliation have moved on swiftly out of uncertainty into a sense of determined resolve.
Lined up for 2011
I am taking the liberty to speculate, if not prognosticate observing the situation that Dr. Goodluck Jonathan, the President of Nigeria is playing one of the smartest games I have ever seen in the black mamba infested pit of Nigerian politics.
An aide of the President suggested and then recanted that Jonathan would run for president in 2011, I think that is a great possibility as he wades through the flux of Nigerian politics literally unscathed.
I would suggest that though Jonathan as vice-president seemed to be sidelined and ignored, he appears to have been a very good understudy for the position he reckoned would soon be his, those who failed to cultivate a respectable and healthy relationship with him have now found themselves on the outside without influence or input.
The ruling party in disarray
The ruling party has been in disarray for quite a while and the President has deftly decided he would not allow that rowdy mob to dictate the agenda, the council of governors who have consistently been derelict in performing their duties but interfering in federal matters have found that they are a gaggle of cacophonic busy-bodies who are continually finding their clamour falling on deaf ears.
The chairman of the ruling party has been fighting battles to save his reputation having been arraigned on charges of corruption; in an unprecedented Nigerian development he has tendered his resignation and the squabbles for influence would move to filling in that post, the person holding the best cards now being the President.
A learner needs time for 2015
Having chosen an unknown governor, Namadi Sambo, from the Northern state of Kaduna who is an architect but was never in the list of people being promoted by those who think they still have influence in the party, which are the governors, the ex-president and some ex-generals; they have all been outmanoeuvred with a resolution that defines Dr. Jonathan as a very capable and dab hand at politics.
I would contend that this vice-president does not have the experience, clout or ability to run for office in 2011, it would however be difficult to ditch him for someone else to run for president such that the only choice would be to keep Jonathan in post for the 2011 elections and then consider the vice-president for that post in 2015.
This man is good
This tears up that outrageous zoning system that ruling party adopted and hopefully they would defer to having the best person run for president rather than engineer some rotten agreement to foist another sick man or sick head on the people.
There is a possibility that Dr. Goodluck Ebele Jonathan would end up being the best civilian president we ever had and everything seems to be falling in place for his good luck to extrapolate to the whole fabric of the Nigerian entity – he needs the time to make things work and for that reason, though the machinery of the ruling party is a nasty vehicle, it is the most affordable transport we have for ensuring we retain a good man at the reins of power.
I think with reference to all other blogs I have written on Jonathan's tactics, this is just a matter of course in the light of things we can see, one should expect no great surprises, the President is the surprise.
Sources

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